Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs dropped to 4-6 on the season after a 27-14 loss at San Francisco against the 7-3 49ers. The Colts have won two straight and improved to 5-5 on the year, including their last game in a 10-6 win over the Patriots in Germany two weeks ago.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Tampa Bay’s playoff chances continue to take a hit with each loss. At 4-6 with seven games remaining, the Bucs really need to finish no worse than 5-2 down the stretch. That will get the team to 9-8 on the season, which could get them into the playoffs as a Wild Card in the NFC, as it did for Seattle last year. And it could even get them another division championship with the downtrodden NFC South, as the Bucs’ 8-9 record was good enough to win the division last year.

Bucs OC Dave Canales and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Head coach Todd Bowles is on the hot seat with a 12-15 record in his two seasons in Tampa Bay so far, and could be coaching to keep his job down the stretch. Not only that, but there are several Bucs players in a contract year that need a big finish to the season to help their cause. There are also a few high-priced veterans like outside linebacker Shaq Barrett and cornerback Carlton Davis III that also need to play well down the stretch and might be salary-cap casualties if they don’t play well.

Injuries in the secondary and at inside linebacker will force Bowles to play a lot of young players on Sunday, as the Bucs had to do in the fourth quarter of last week’s 27-14 loss at San Francisco. Those young players will have the opportunity to really make a good impression on the coaching staff and the front office, and how they fare could dictate some key personnel decisions next offseason.

What’s At Stake For The Colts

The Colts had high hopes for quarterback Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick in the draft. But Richardson suffered a season-ending injury to his throwing shoulder in October and was placed on injured reserve. Gardner Minshew has gone 3-3 in his starts since replacing him and kept the Colts’ playoff hopes alive. Indianapolis is 5-5 and still in the postseason hunt, but needs a strong finish.

Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. Photo by: USA Today

New head coach Shane Steichen has the Colts offense moving in the right direction – even with a backup quarterback. Indianapolis ranks ninth in scoring, averaging 24.2 points per game, and 14th in yards with 336.1 yards per game. The problem has been a scoring defense that allows 24.8 points per game, and ranks 26th in the league.

Yet the Colts have scored back-to-back wins over lesser teams the last two games with better defensive play. Indianapolis beat Carolina, 27-13, thanks in part to a pair of pick-sixes from defensive back Kenny Moore. The next week the Colts beat the Patriots, 10-6, in Germany. So maybe the defense is turning the corner in Indianapolis.

The Bucs Win If…

The Bucs have done a great job of taking care of the ball this year on offense. Baker Mayfield has only thrown six interceptions and Tampa Bay is +6 in turnover margin, while Indianapolis is only +1. Winning the turnover battle is crucial for the Bucs, evidenced by last week’s 13-point loss at San Francisco. Tampa Bay lost the turnover battle 2-0 and lost the game as a result. The Bucs defense is banged up at several positions and the backups may need to contribute with a couple of takeaways.

Bucs ILB SirVocea Dennis – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Stopping running back Jonathan Taylor will be paramount, as quarterback Gardner Minshew functions better when he doesn’t have to carry the load with the passing game. The problem with that is without Lavonte David on Sunday the Bucs may have to dedicate more resources to the box to slow Taylor down. That would force more man coverage in the secondary, which head coach Todd Bowles may not want to do given how many rookies he may have to start in Indianapolis. Yet dropping seven back in zone coverage could allow Taylor to break off some big runs and get to the second level. Bowles could be damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t by stacking the box.

Offensively, the Bucs need to get back to scoring 20 points or more if the team has a chance of winning. In fact, with a wounded defense, scoring 28 points or more might be necessary this Sunday. Tampa Bay’s offense may have to channel the play-calling and execution from a few weeks ago when it scored 37 points in a loss at Houston. Big days from Mike Evans and Rachaad White are a must, as is a clean, mistake-free performance from Baker Mayfield.

The Colts Win If…

Four out of the Colts’ five wins this year have come away from Lucas Oil Stadium, so perhaps Indianapolis needs to pretend this is an away game. Quarterback Gardner Minshew has thrown eight touchdowns and six interceptions, which isn’t a great ratio. Yet he’s done enough to win three out of the six games he’s started, including the last two. But the Colts offense has bogged down despite the wins, scoring just 13 points at Carolina and 10 last week in Germany in a win over New England.

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield, Jr. and Colts RB Jonathan Taylor – Photo by: USA Today

Establishing Jonathan Taylor and the Colts ground game will be paramount for success, as Minshew is limited as a quarterback. When the Colts offense is balanced it’s at its best. Getting a productive game from receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs to help Minshew out will also be necessary to score more points and increase the chances of winning.

On defense, the Colts have stepped up in recent weeks, keeping teams out of the end zone and creating more takeaways. Indianapolis’ defense has five interceptions in the past two games, including a pair of pick-sixes from Kenny Moore at Carolina. The Colts will need to continue to play clutch football on defense and double-team Mike Evans while shutting down Rachaad White and the rushing attack to make the Bucs offense one-dimensional.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs RB Rachaad White vs. Colts MLB Zaire Franklin

Offensive coordinator Dave Canales has really figured out how to maximize Rachaad White’s abilities. White is decent as a runner and is showing more power and determination between the tackles. But he’s best used as a receiver out of the backfield and on screens. He has 459 yards and four touchdowns on the ground, averaging 3.3 yards per carry, but has hauled in 41 passes for 354 yards (8.6 avg.) and one touchdown through the air. With the Colts paying a lot of attention to stopping top wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Bucs will need for White to have a big game as a complementary weapon and top 100 total yards.

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Zaire Franklin was the NFL’s second-leading tackler a year ago with 167 stops, and is the third-leading tackler this season with 117. Franklin has hit double-digit tackle totals in every game but one this year, and is coming off a 15-tackle effort against the Patriots last week. The tackling machine also has a pair of forced fumbles this season, 1.5 sacks and three pass breakups in coverage. With the speed to go sideline to sideline, it might be tough sledding for White to find room to run outside or in the screen game – let alone between the tackles.

If offensive coordinator Dave Canales can find a way to match White up with weakside linebacker Grant Stuard, a former Buccaneer who is more quick than fast, that would be ideal. Perhaps by motioning White out to the sidelines. Stuard is short and not good in coverage. Yet the Colts play a lot of nickel defense and E.J. Speed is often the other linebacker playing next to Franklin.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs DBs vs. Colts WRs Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs and Alec Pierce

Tampa Bay secondary is quite the M*A*S*H unit right now with strong safety Ryan Neal out with a thumb injury and starting cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean both dealing with injuries from last week’s game. Davis has a hip injury and Dean severely sprained his ankle in San Francisco. Both are questionable to play at best at this moment, and head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles might have to make some serious adjustments.

Bucs CB Josh Hayes – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs ended the 49ers game with rookie cornerback Josh Hayes at one outside cornerback for Davis where he saw his first action on defense playing opposite Zyon McCollum, who was filling in for Dean. Tampa Bay also had rookie Christian Izien in the slot and rookie Kaevon Merriweather at strong safety for Neal. If Davis and Dean can’t go, expect these rookies to play alongside starting safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and veteran Dee Delaney, who could wind up starting at cornerback over Hayes.

The Colts offense centers around running back Jonathan Taylor, who is one of the best in the league. However, Indianapolis may decide to really attack Tampa Bay’s weakness, which is the Bucs’ banged up secondary. Michael Pittman Jr., the son of the former Bucs running back, is Indianapolis’ top receiver with 66 catches for 677 yards and three touchdowns. He’s a big-bodied target, who Gardner Minshew really leans on. Rookie Josh Downs has been a reliable No. 2 with 43 catches for 523 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts receiver room isn’t special, but could have an advantage if the Bucs have to roll with a lot of backups.