Week 14 was essentially do-or-die for the Bucs, as a win over the Falcons in Atlanta would give them first place in the NFC South with four games to go while a loss would send them to 5-8 and two games back in the division.

The game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium was a microcosm of the NFC South race, with both teams trading blows with big plays while simultaneously shooting themselves in the foot. After Tampa Bay blew a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter, though, Baker Mayfield threw an 11-yard touchdown pass to Cade Otton with 31 seconds remaining. That proved to be the game-winner as the Bucs would escape with a massive 29-25 win that saw them take over first place in the division.

The Bucs struck first, with a third-down conversion from Baker Mayfield to David Moore keeping the opening drive alive. That drive eventually led to a 55-yard field goal by Chase McLaughlin at the 9:27 mark in the first quarter.

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum and Falcons WR Drake London – Photo by: USA Today

But the Tampa Bay defense couldn’t hold the lead, with Desmond Ridder and the Falcons converting two third downs and a fourth down to get deep into the red zone on their first possession. But after a touchdown-saving tackle from K.J. Britt on 2nd & Goal, Ridder badly missed with his third-down throw. That meant Atlanta’s 16-play, 73-yard drive that drained more than eight minutes off the clock ended in only three points as Younghoe Koo drilled a 20-yard field goal to tie the game.

That eight-minute drive by the Falcons offense was followed by a three-and-out from the Bucs offense, which felt like a huge opportunity for the home team. Only Carlton Davis III, who had a bad opening drive, had other plans. He jumped a Ridder screen pass for an interception and while it initially looked like a pick-six, the officials ruled Davis down at the 8.

Two plays later, Tampa Bay opened the second quarter with a two-yard touchdown run by Mayfield. That put the Bucs up 10-3, but once again, the lead wouldn’t last long.

Ridder found Kyle Pitts open for a 36-yard touchdown on the ensuing drive, capping off an easy six-play, 75-yard drive that took only 2:48 off the clock. The Bucs offense didn’t have much of an answer for the rest of the half, and the game only stayed knotted at 10 because of a Calijah Kancey third-down sack and a missed 50-yard field goal by Koo seconds later.

Bucs FS Antoine WInfield Jr. and Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo by: USA Today

Just before halftime, the Bucs came up with another big play to swing things in their favor. After Camarda delivered a 50-yard punt to the 8-yard line, Antoine Winfield Jr. came in on a blitz for a sack-fumble on Ridder in the end zone. Keith Smith II recovered it for Atlanta, only to be taken down by Pat O’Connor for a safety. That gave the Bucs a 12-10 lead — and the ball — with 2:36 to play in the second quarter.

Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, the offense didn’t do anything with that extra possession. Instead, Camarda came back on for another punt that only went 39 yards. Even worse, Dee Alford returned it for 22, giving the Falcons solid starting field position. But the Bucs got bailed out again, as Koo missed a potential go-ahead 52-yard field goal as time expired in the first half. That meant the visitors went to the locker room with a slim two-point lead.

Both teams punted on their first two drives of the second half, then Atlanta punted on a third straight drive and that was the opening that Tampa Bay took to extend its lead.

After starting their drive with five straight runs, the Bucs finally got the ball to Mike Evans for the first time to pick up a key third-down conversion. Shortly after, they faced a 3rd & 9, and it looked like the drive might be dead right there. Instead, Mayfield threw a screen to Rachaad White, who made a move and found some lanes before outracing everyone to the end zone for a 31-yard touchdown. With the PAT, Tampa Bay went up 19-10 with 4:06 to go in the third quarter.

Another defensive stop for Todd Bowles’ defense sent the Bucs into the fourth quarter with the ball and a nine-point lead. But the offense couldn’t add on, leaving the door open for the Falcons.

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson and Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: USA Today

On the next Atlanta possession, Zyon McCollum was very questionably called for defensive pass interference on a third-down incompletion. That extended the drive, and the home team cashed in. A 33-yard pickup by Bijan Robinson set them up with a 1st & Goal, then Robinson punched it in on the next play. With Koo’s PAT, the Bucs’ lead was down to 19-17 with 11:10 to play.

The momentum seemed to be on the side of Arthur Smith and Atlanta’s side, but the Buccaneer offense responded with a field goal drive. The ground game went to work, with White and Chase Edmonds wearing down the Falcons’ front. But Mayfield didn’t see a wide-open Evans until too late on third down, meaning the five-minute drive ended in a 38-yard field goal. The Bucs went up 22-17, but the Falcons had the chance they needed.

On the very first play of the next possession, Drake London beat two defenders for a 45-yard gain. Not long after, Atlanta was inside the Tampa Bay 10-yard line. Ridder then beat Joe Tryon-Shoyinka to the edge and scored a six-yard touchdown to give the Falcons their first lead of the afternoon. With London catching a wide-open two-point conversion, it was a 25-22 advantage for the home side.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs had one final shot with just over three minutes remaining. They converted a fourth down early in the drive and drew a defensive holding call, then the big play came from Chris Godwin. He caught a 32-yard pass from Mayfield to set the Bucs up at the 15-yard line with under a minute to go.

From there, Mayfield connected with Cade Otton for a go-ahead 11-yard touchdown with 31 seconds to go. It was a 29-25 lead for Tampa Bay, meaning Atlanta needed a touchdown to win it.

The Falcons got within Hail Mary range with four seconds to go, and they nearly got the answered prayer they needed. Ridder connected with London, but he was cut down at the 4-yard line. With that, the Bucs held on for a 29-25 win and now sit in first place at 6-7.

The Bucs will be away from home once again next week, heading up to Lambeau Field for a matchup against the 6-6 Packers. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET.