For either the Bucs or the Commanders, the 2024 season will come to an end in the same place and against the same opponent it started with way back in September. Because when Tampa Bay and Washington meet at Raymond James Stadium in an NFC Wild Card matchup on Sunday night, the winner will move on to the NFC Divisional Round while the loser will see its playoff run cut short.

The Bucs four-peated as NFC South champions by finishing 10-7, clinching the division on the final day of the regular season with a 27-19 win over the Saints. And because the Falcons lost to the Panthers, the Bucs ultimately won the division by a full two games, with the Falcons finishing in second place at 8-9. And by the end of the regular season’s final day, Tampa Bay found itself as the No. 3 seed in the NFC.

On the other side of the field on Sunday will be the 12-5 Commanders, who beat out the Packers for the NFC’s No. 6 seed over the final two weeks of the season. This is a Commanders team that is way ahead of schedule with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels leading the way. No one thought Washington would be this good this fast, but year one under Dan Quinn has already been a massive success. From here on out, the Commanders may not feel like they have much to lose. That could make them dangerous in these playoffs.

With that said, here’s a look at what happened the last time these two teams met, as well as how both are trending and some game information ahead of another night of playoff football at Ray Jay.

The Last Time…

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

These two teams saw each other just over four months ago to kick off the 2024 regular season. On that Sunday, the Bucs beat the Commanders 37-20 at Raymond James Stadium in the debut of Washington’s No. 2 overall pick, Jayden Daniels.

Tampa Bay jumped out to a 13-0 lead thanks to two Chase McLaughlin field goals and a 17-yard touchdown pass from Baker Mayfield to Mike Evans. A Brian Robinson Jr. 7-yard touchdown run got Washington back within 13-7 before McLaughlin hit another field goal with 16 seconds left in the first half to make it a 16-7 halftime lead for the home team.

The third quarter got off to a slow start for both sides, but a 4-yard touchdown pass from Mayfield to Chris Godwin extended the Bucs’ lead to 23-7 before a 1-yard touchdown run by Daniels kept the Commanders in it at 23-14 heading into the fourth quarter.

But just seconds into the fourth, Mayfield found rookie Jalen McMillan for a 32-yard touchdown to make it a 30-14 game. Another Mayfield-to-Evans touchdown then made it 37-14 before a late Daniels touchdown run left the final score at 37-20 in favor of Tampa Bay.

Mayfield was 24-0f-30 for 289 yards and four touchdowns on the afternoon, with Evans catching two touchdowns and Godwin leading all receivers with eight catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. Daniels was effective on the ground in his debut, rushing 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns. He also completed 17 of his 24 passes for 184 yards, but didn’t get a whole lot of help from anyone else.

This is the fourth playoff meeting all-time between the Bucs and Commanders. Tampa Bay won two of the three previous meetings, with a 31-23 win over Washington on the way to Super Bowl LV being the most recent postseason matchup between the two teams. But the last time they met in a playoff game in Tampa was in the 2005 playoffs, and Washington won 17-10. That was the franchise’s most recent playoff win.

How The Bucs And Commanders Are Trending

Bucs OC Liam Coen, QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

While the Lions, Eagles and Vikings are the favorites in the NFC playoffs, the Bucs and Commanders are also two of the hotter teams in the league right now.

Tampa Bay was once 4-6 before rattling off wins in six of its last seven games to finish 10-7, win the NFC South and earn the No. 3 seed in the NFC. Todd Bowles‘ team has been in playoff mode ever since its Week 11 bye, and Liam Coen‘s offense has led the way down the stretch and really over the course of the whole season.

The Bucs offense is a top-five unit in just about every offensive category, Baker Mayfield put together a Pro Bowl-caliber season with 4,500 passing yards and 44 total touchdowns to 16 interceptions, Bucky Irving ran for 1,000 yards in his rookie season and Mike Evans earned an NFL-record-tying 11th straight 1,000-yard receiving season.

What helped the Bucs down the stretch is that it wasn’t just Irving and Evans as the only weapons for Coen and Mayfield to work with. With Chris Godwin out for the season, others have stepped up. Tight end Cade Otton came on strong when both Evans and Godwin were out, Rachaad White remained a steady presence in the backfield as a complement to Irving and rookie Jalen McMillan closed the season on a tear. And even without Otton in recent weeks, tight ends Payne Durham and Devin Culp emerged as reliable targets. It’s also worth mentioning that Tampa Bay’s offensive line is one of the league’s best and has played a significant role in the offense’s success all year.

On the defense, Bowles has had to operate without some key pieces – and without some of his key pieces contributing the way they usually do – for much of the season. Lavonte David has begun to slow down at age 34, Jamel Dean has continued to struggle with staying healthy and starting safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jordan Whitehead missed a combined 13 games and weren’t playing all that well when healthy, either. The team is hoping to at least get Dean and Winfield back for the Wild Card Round, but Whitehead is out for the year following his car accident last weekend.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels and Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

What is good for the Bucs defense, though, is that it has stayed afloat for the most part down the stretch. In other words, the unit has at least played well enough for the offense to carry the load and help the team finish 6-1 in its final seven games. Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey and Yaya Diaby have been responsible for the pass rush for much of the year, and while the pass defense has continued to be a weakness, Tampa Bay’s run defense is back in the top five where it belongs.

The big thing the Bucs have going for them on defense is that they have only allowed 26 second-half points in the last seven games. They have pitched two second-half shutouts and haven’t allowed a second-half touchdown in the last five games.

As hot as the Bucs were in December and into January, the Commanders have been right there with them. Washington won its final five games, overcoming a three-game losing streak that dropped the team to 7-5 to finish with the franchise’s first 12-win season since 1991. Dan Quinn‘s team is battle-tested, too, as it had to win some close games over the last five weeks. After a 42-19 win over the Titans to start December, they beat the Saints 20-19, upset the Eagles 36-33, beat the Falcons 30-24 in overtime and held off the Cowboys 23-19 in Week 18.

While Quinn has done a good job in year one and there were some key additions made last offseason to usher in a new era under new ownership, the biggest reason the Commanders are playing so well and have a chance to keep playing deeper into January is quarterback Jayden Daniels. It caused some debate when Daniels made the Pro Bowl roster over Mayfield, but that’s not to take away from the season the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner has put together. The No. 2 overall pick out of LSU has been a game-changer in Washington.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Photo by: USA Today

Daniels completed 69% of his passes this season for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns to just nine interceptions while adding 891 yards and six more touchdowns on the ground. The dual-threat ability makes him incredibly difficult to defend, and he has managed to overcome a general lack of firepower elsewhere on offense to get his NFL career off to a phenomenal start.

While the quarterback of the future in Washington could use some more weapons, he does have a stud No. 1 receiver in Terry McLaurin, who finished the regular season with 82 catches on 117 targets for 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns. He and tight end Zach Ertz (66 catches for 654 yards and seven touchdowns) are the primary targets for Daniels.

Washington has a pair of reliable running backs, too. Brian Robinson Jr. ran for 799 yards and eight touchdowns in 14 games this season, while veteran Austin Ekeler was limited to 12 games but still averaged 4.8 yards per carry, ran for four touchdowns and added 35 catches for 366 yards in the passing game. Ekeler just returned to action last week after missing a month, and he was the Commanders’ leading receiver in Week 1 against the Bucs with four catches for 52 yards.

Where the Commanders haven’t been as good this year is on defense, though they haven’t been flat-out awful. They’re allowing 23 points per game and actually come into play with the third-best pass defense in the league. But their 30th-ranked run defense could prove to be a problem against Tampa Bay’s stable of running backs, especially if the Bucs manage to grab an early lead and can control the game. Still, with veterans like Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, Frankie Luvu, Bobby Wagner, Dante Fowler Jr. and Marshon Lattimore, this is a defense that has some talent to it.

Bucs LB Lavonte David and Commanders QB Jayden Daniels Photo by: USA Today

Here’s how the Bucs and Commanders stack up heading into Wild Card Weekend:

Bucs Offense: 4th in scoring offense (29.5 PPG), 3rd in total offense (399.5 yards per game), 3rd in passing offense (250.4 yards per game), 4th in rushing offense (149.2 yards per game)

Commanders Offense: 5th in scoring offense (28.5 PPG), 7th in total offense (369.6 yards per game), 17th in passing offense (215.6 yards per game), 3rd in rushing offense (154.1 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 16th in scoring defense (22.6 points allowed per game), 18th in total defense (341.8 yards allowed per game), 29th in passing defense (243.9 yards allowed per game), 4th in rushing defense (97.8 yards allowed per game)

Commanders Defense: 18th in scoring defense (23.0 points allowed per game), 13th in total defense (326.9 yards allowed per game), 3rd in passing defense (189.5 yards allowed per game), 30th in rushing defense (137.5 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday night, the Bucs were 3-point favorites with the Over/Under set at 50 (per Hard Rock Bet).

Bucs vs. Commanders Game Information

When: Sunday, January 12
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: NBC – Mike Tirico (Play by Play), Cris Collinsworth (Analyst), Melissa Stark (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst), Santiago Gramática (Reporter)