Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs finished the 2023 season 9-8 and three-peated as NFC South champions before knocking off the 11-6 Eagles in the Wild Card playoff game. Tampa Bay lost at Detroit in the Divisional round of the playoffs but is looking to take the next step in 2024 and advance farther into the postseason. The team wants to start 2024 off the right way – with a win in the season opener at home against Washington.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and OLB Markees Watts – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles has a 17-17 record over two seasons and a 1-2 record in the postseason. But with much of last year’s team returning and the Bucs finishing 2023 with a 6-2 record down the stretch including the postseason, the arrow is pointing up for both the team and Bowles’ tenure in Tampa Bay.

The Bucs start the year with three out of their first four games at home in the Florida heat and humidity in September, including the season opener against the visiting Washington Commanders. Tampa Bay wants to start the season off right with a win before heading into a hostile environment in Detroit in Week 2 for what should be a hard-fought NFC showdown against a Lions team that beat the Bucs twice last year.

Teams that start the season 0-2 historically have an uphill climb when it comes to making the playoffs. So in case the Bucs haven’t figured out how to beat the Lions just yet, they’ll want to avoid a possible 0-2 start with an opening day win against the Commanders. The NFC South and the seeding for the NFC playoffs could come down to the conference wins tiebreaker. So getting an early lead in the NFC would only help Tampa Bay’s cause come January.

What’s At Stake For The Commanders

Commanders HC Dan Quinn – Photo by: USA Today

Excitement is high in Washington with the sale of the franchise out of Dan Snyder’s clutches and the arrival of a proven head coach in Dan Quinn. Things got even more exciting for the Commanders in April when the team drafted Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick. Expectations aren’t high with the team rebuilding around a rookie quarterback with a first-year head coach. So maybe that takes some of the pressure off on opening day.

Still, Quinn and Daniels want to make a good first impression in the debuts in burgundy, gold and white, and would love nothing more than to upset the Bucs on the road in the season opener to start a new era in Washington. Quinn’s team will be built around toughness, physicality and it will be defensive-minded.

New offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has had success in developing the likes of quarterback Kyler Murray in Arizona when Murray was the No. 1 overall pick in 2019. Coming from stops at Texas Tech where he was the head coach for six years and USC where he was a senior offensive analyst working with Caleb Williams, this year’s No. 1 overall pick, Kingsbury has an easy time relating to talented dual-threat quarterbacks who are coming from the college ranks. He should help ease Daniels’ transition into the NFL and have him ready to go in Week 1.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles had all offseason to watch every LSU and Arizona State game where Jayden Daniels played. And he watched the two games where Daniels played in Washington in the preseason. With plenty of time to prepare, and a couple of games against Kliff Kingsbury’s Cardinals teams in 2019 and 2022, Bowles and his defense should be prepared for just about everything outside of an opening day surprise wrinkle or two. Tampa Bay’s run defense has the chance to be dominant in 2024, and slowing down the backfield tandem of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler will be paramount for victory.

Making Daniels have to beat the Bucs from the pocket with his arm rather than his legs as a scrambler means that Tampa Bay’s pass rush will need to be extremely disciplined and gap sound. Bowles will likely use a lot of zone with some disguised coverages to try to fool the rookie quarterback, in addition to some exotic pressure packages to take advantage of Daniels’ inexperience. If the Bucs can sack Daniels three times or more and harass him into a couple of turnovers, it only increases their chances of winning.

Offensively, Liam Coen wants to get the Bucs’ ground game going, but that might be tough sledding between the tackles where the Commanders’ defense is the strongest. If Tampa Bay can get an early lead, it takes some of the pressure off Bowles’ defense and puts pressure on Washington’s rookie quarterback. If Baker Mayfield can play turnover-free football, which he did in nine of the team’s 19 games last year, that could lead to a Bucs victory on opening day.

The Commanders Win If…

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels and RB Brian Robinson Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

If Jayden Daniels comes out running and throwing and isn’t pressured on opening day, it could lead to a Washington win and a big upset. Daniels’ speed and elusiveness gives him the opportunity to pick up 17 yards on a scramble where other quarterbacks might only pick up seven yards. If he’s able to find some success running the ball – whether it’s on a designed QB keeper or escaping the pocket – Daniels could put up 21 points or more on the scoreboard.

The heat will be more of a challenge for the Commanders, who will be wearing some dark uniforms when the game kicks off at the hottest part of the day at 4:25 p.m. ET. Washington will be be able to withstand the hot and humid conditions easier if it gets an early lead and is able to get some momentum from the start. The Bucs had problems scoring in the first quarter last year and never scored a touchdown on the opening drive. If Dan Quinn’s troops are able to get up on Tampa Bay in the first quarter and the first half, that could fuel the visiting team for all four quarters.

Defensively, Quinn’s unit has to take away Mike Evans, the Bucs’ best weapon on offense. Baker Mayfield already has a rapport with Chris Godwin and Cade Otton, and is establishing one with rookie WR3 in Jalen McMillan. But double-covering Evans could tempt Mayfield to get impatient and throw into coverage, which could result in a turnover. Washington’s defense needs to be able to pressure Mayfield and be opportunistic with a pair of turnovers to increase their chance of winning.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs Interior Offensive Line vs. Commanders Defensive Tackles

Commanders DTs Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne – Photo by: USA Today

All eyes will be on Tampa Bay rookie center Graham Barton in Week 1 as he will have to face a pair of Pro Bowl-caliber defensive tackles in Washington’s Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen in his NFL debut. But Barton won’t be alone. He’ll be next to new left guard Ben Bredeson and second-year right guard Cody Mauch as Tampa Bay spent the offseason bolstering the interior offensive line, which was a weak spot a year ago with former starting center Robert Hainsey and the left guard tandem of Matt Feiler and Aaron Stinnie.

Not only will Barton, Bredeson and Mauch need to be stout in pass protection, but they will also need to be the tip of the spear in the run game, especially the rookie center. Tampa Bay’s ground game was dead last in the league over the past two seasons and new offensive coordinator Liam Coen has put a big emphasis on being able to run the ball and have a balanced attack this year. Washington’s defensive tackles will need to do their part to slow down the Bucs’ run game and limit yards between the tackles, in addition to pressuring Baker Mayfield.

Washington head coach Dan Quinn could put some additional stress and pressure on the rookie center with some double mug looks in the A gap to confuse Barton into making some wrong line calls. And when Allen and Payne need a breather, Johnny Newton, a St. Petersburg native, could be called upon to be the third defensive tackle in the rotation provided Newton is healthy enough to play.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Pass Rush vs. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay enters the 2024 season with a talented yet inexperienced bunch of pass rushers at outside linebacker. Getting pressure on rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels will be paramount for the Bucs on opening day and doing so will only increase the team’s chances of winning. But merely pressuring a talented, accurate passer like Daniels may not be enough. The Bucs’ pass rushers will need to get Daniels on the ground to end drives. That will mean deploying two of Tampa Bay’s most sure tacklers in free safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and linebacker Lavonte David on blitzes.

Having gap integrity during the Bucs’ pass rush will be paramount as not doing so can open some escape lanes of the mobile Daniels to use to pick up yards and move the chains. The Bucs defensive tackles, edge rushers and blitzers need to be in sync and rush as a unit to corral and contain Daniels and not let him hurt the Bucs with his legs.

Pressures and sacks are one thing, but forcing the rookie quarterback to commit some turnovers will be even better. Todd Bowles is known for his exotic pressure packages and his disguised coverages. The Bucs’ chances of winning increase if Daniels is forced into throwing an interception or two, or coughs up the ball on a sack-fumble play by Bowles’ defense. The return of last year’s leading sacker, Yaya Diaby, only helps.