For those who went through the 2008-2019 playoff drought, the fact that the Bucs are set to play on Wild Card Weekend for the fifth straight year – and the fourth straight year at home – has to feel pretty special. Yet, nowadays, just making it to the playoffs isn’t enough for Tampa Bay. If the 10-7, No. 3 seed Bucs fail to beat the 12-5, No. 6 seed Commanders on Sunday night, it’ll feel like a disappointment.

After all, this Tampa Bay team was one quarter away from the NFC Championship Game last year, and while the defense has taken a step back throughout the 2024 season, the offense is one of the league’s very best. So, there has to be a sense of high expectations for Todd Bowles and his team when they host a Washington team they beat at home way back in Week 1. They should be getting healthier, and they’ll like their chances of getting another Wild Card win in front of the home fans after doing so last year with a 32-9 victory over the Eagles.

The Commanders come into this game with a bit of a different vibe, at least as far as expectations go. Yes, they won 12 games for the first time since 1991 and yes, they haven’t won a playoff game since beating the Bucs in the NFC Wild Card Round back in January 2006. But this is a team that’s playing with house money, for lack of a better phrase. Washington is still building and is way ahead of schedule in year one under Dan Quinn and with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Still, this is a good team that is plenty capable of winning on Sunday night and making a run in these playoffs.

Let’s dive into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in Sunday night’s game at Ray Jay:

What Might Decide This Bucs-Commanders Matchup?

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Given that the Bucs and Commanders have two of the best offenses in the NFL, the ultimate decider in this game could be which team’s defense is able to step up and make key stops.

Neither of these two teams have a defense that is all that good at taking the ball away, but this is the type of matchup where a takeaway or two could absolutely decide the game. The Bucs forced 18 turnovers this year (11 fumbles, 7 interceptions) while the Commanders forced 17 (10 fumbles, 7 interceptions).

But the key for Washington is that, while it doesn’t take the ball away very much, it also doesn’t give the ball away at a high clip. The Commanders turned the ball over 16 times, so they finished the season +1 in terms of turnover margin. The same can’t be said for the Bucs. Tampa Bay turned the ball over 23 times, making for a -5 differential. Neither team turned the ball over when they met in Week 1, so even one turnover in either direction could make a significant difference on Sunday night.

It’ll be interesting to see how Todd Bowles and Dan Quinn go about their game plans, as these two defenses have opposite strengths and weaknesses. Tampa Bay is great against the run and disastrous against the pass, especially over the middle of the field. How can Bowles cover those deficiencies? How much will he blitz Jayden Daniels and hope those blitzes get home before the rookie quarterback exposes the weaknesses in coverage? On the other side, Quinn’s defense is a top-five unit against the pass and a bottom-three defense against the run. Will he sell out to try to stop Bucky Irving and Rachaad White at risk of giving Baker Mayfield some easy throws to work with off play-action?

Of course, as much as this could be decided by the defenses, it’s the high-scoring offenses that got both of these teams to this point. Mayfield and the Bucs are the fourth-highest-scoring team with 29.5 points per game, while Daniels and the Commanders are right behind them in fifth at 28.5 points per game. Which side will blink first (or the most) on Sunday night?

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Any problems that Tampa Bay runs into on offense tend to be its own doing. Whether it’s turnovers, penalties or poor execution, the best defense against the Bucs offense is sometimes the Bucs offense itself. However, when Liam Coen‘s offense is clicking, there’s not much it can’t do.

Mayfield has seen a number of viable targets emerge outside of Mike Evans, with rookie Jalen McMillan and tight ends Cade Otton, Payne Durham and Devin Culp (another rookie) all coming along as great complementary targets in Chris Godwin‘s absence. There will be a lot of focus on the matchup between Evans and longtime nemesis Marshon Lattimore, but it’s not as if the Bucs’ passing game is a one-man show.

The run game is also one of the Bucs’ biggest strengths. Irving is a 1,000-yard rusher, White has quietly had a very good season and Sean Tucker seems to excel whenever he’s called upon. Not to mention, the Buccaneer offensive line has been MAULING in the run game this year and especially down the stretch. That group could end up being the difference in Sunday’s game.

On the Washington offense, it’s the Daniels Show. The No. 2 overall pick out of LSU has completely transformed this Commanders team and has been executing Kliff Kingsbury‘s offense exceptionally well all year long. He threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns this season while rushing for 891 yards and another six scores.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Photo by: USA Today

Despite him being a rookie, this game will be on his shoulders from a Washington standpoint. Given his Heisman Trophy-winning track record and Rookie of the Year-worthy 2024 season, it would be foolish to expect the bright lights of the NFL playoffs to shake him. If anything, he’ll embrace this stage.

As good as Daniels is, what will decide this game for the Commanders offense is what the guys around him are able to do. Terry McLaurin is a 1,000-yard receiver and hauled in 13 touchdowns this year. But the Bucs bottled him up back in Week 1. Can he bounce back this time and be the No. 1 target Daniels needs him to be? If not, can someone else step up?

Veteran tight end Zach Ertz would be the likeliest candidate, as he’s Washington’s second-leading receiver and would appear to have a favorable matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that struggles with tight ends, especially over the middle of the field. But can anyone else step up and have a big game in the passing attack? Can his offensive line protect him? And will Washington be able to get anything from its run game against the Bucs’ strong rush defense?

One other factor? The kicking games of these two teams. The Bucs have one of the best in the league in Chase McLaughlin, while the Commanders went through four kickers this year but now have a good one in Austin Seibert. Both kickers have made more than 90% of their kicks this year, but one difference that could prove significant? McLaughlin is 8-of-10 from 50+ yards this year, while Seibert is 2-of-5. Those three misses from 50+ for the Washington kicker are his only misses of the season (27-of-30 overall).

Key Players To Watch

Baker Mayfield has to be the focus here for the Bucs offense. He had some ups and downs in his first year with Tampa Bay, but his play in the postseason was monumental. He threw for 686 yards and six touchdowns to two interceptions during the team’s two-game playoff run last year, and he’s been even better in Liam Coen‘s offense this year.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

If he puts up another three- or four-touchdown game like he has done so often this year, the Bucs will love their chances to win this game. Having an effective run game and weapons outside of Mike Evans (as well as having Evans himself, of course) is huge for No. 6, and he’ll look to get things started early on Sunday. When he’s able to lead an early scoring drive, it usually bodes well for Tampa Bay.

On the defensive side of the ball for the home team, Zyon McCollum could prove to be a major factor in this game. He played exceptionally well in Week 1 against Washington, kickstarting what was a phenomenal first half of the season for him. But his play dipped as the season went on. Can he bounce back and help the Buccaneer defense lock down the likes of Terry McLaurin?

How well McCollum can fare in coverage – as well as if he can come up with his first interception since Week 6 – may be crucial when it comes to deciding how well Tampa Bay will be able to handle Jayden Daniels and this impressive Washington offense.

With so much focus already on Daniels, McLaurin and Zach Ertz, how about a look into running back Brian Robinson Jr.? The third-year back ran for 799 yards and eight touchdowns this year and is the second-leading rusher on the team behind the dual-threat Daniels. The Commanders are 7-1 this season when Robinson runs for more than 60 yards in a game, and he’ll need to be a factor on Sunday night.

Robinson wasn’t much of a factor against the Bucs back in Week 1, rushing for 40 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries (3.3 avg.). But he did contribute in the passing game, catching three passes for a season-high 49 receiving yards. With how well Tampa Bay defends against the run, maybe offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will look to get Robinson involved in the passing game against the Buccaneer linebackers, who have struggled in coverage all year.

Commanders LB Bobby Wagner Photo by: USA Today

Bobby Wagner will turn 35 in June, but he can still go. He’s Washington’s highest-graded defender pretty much across the board, according to Pro Football Focus. His 89.9 overall grade, 90.8 run defense grade, 87.2 tackling grade and 91.0 pass rush grade are all team-leading, while his 68.1 coverage grade ranks fourth on the Commander defense.

Wagner has just a 5.1% missed tackle rate and has 132 tackles (75 solo), 26 pressures, two sacks, 10 tackles for loss, a forced fumble and two fumble recoveries this year. He’s one of the leaders of a Washington defense that will have its work cut out against Tampa Bay. The nine-time Pro Bowler, six-time All-Pro and Super Bowl XLVIII champion has played 16 postseason games over his illustrious career, and he’s someone who could make a huge impact on Sunday night.