A 20-6 loss was the result of the Bucs’ last matchup with the Lions. Six points is a terrible result. It cannot be repeated if Tampa Bay hopes to move on to the NFC Conference Championship game to face the 49ers.

But as most who watched the Week 6 battle in the throwback uniforms they would tell you the Bucs offense was much better than its point total. If not for three key execution errors the Bucs could have had 21 extra points while the Lions would have had seven less.

And it all came down to the deep ball.

From Mike Evans Would-Be Touchdown To Interception

The Bucs had a chance to take an early lead despite being backed up near their own end zone. On first-and-10 from Tampa Bay’s own 8-yard line Mike Evans got behind a busted coverage created off of play action. The Bucs had an easy 92-yard touchdown for the taking.

But Baker Mayfield’s pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage and the ball fell meekly into the awaiting arms of Lions defensive back Will Harris. Two plays later the Lions would kick a field goal to go up 3-0. That missed opportunity was a 10-point swing in a game decided by 14 points.

Relooking at some of my notes/clips from Week 6. Cannot understate the impact of the deep shot misses had on this game. pic.twitter.com/cpc0vUwY65

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) January 21, 2024

The Trey Palmer Breakout Game That Never Was

Bucs WR Trey Palmer – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bucs rookie wide receiver Trey Palmer has had an up and down year. The sixth-round draft pick has produced more than his draft selection would warrant, but not as much consistency as one would hope for from a WR3.

Palmer is currently riding high after a 56-yard catch-and-run touchdown in the Wild Card round. But looking back to the earlier Bucs-Lions game he could have had multiple additional explosives on his resume.

The first opportunity came out of the two-minute warning in the first half. Down 10-3 with the ball on their own 38, the Bucs get Palmer open on a deep post from the right slot. Working open against the far-side safety sitting on a Chris Godwin curl route, Palmer gains inside leverage while blowing past safety Kerby Joseph. Baker Mayfield’s pass was just a little too long and Palmer was unable to get to it in time.

This would have tied the game just before halftime.

pic.twitter.com/X7yX4beNMN

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) January 21, 2024

Then in the fourth quarter, Palmer gets open on a corner route from a stacked trips set, but once again he and his quarterback were not on the same page for ball placement. This again could have been a touchdown if the ball hits him in stride.

pic.twitter.com/vVsulCW2Kj

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) January 21, 2024

Palmer finished that game with just two catches on seven targets for 47 yards. Those two plays added in, and his game could have been four catches for 176 yards and two touchdowns.

Bucs’ Deep Passing Game Has Improved Since Week 6

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Baker Mayfield was 2-of-10 on passes of 20+ air yards in that Week 6 loss to Detroit. This area of the Bucs’ passing attack has been their biggest area of opportunity throughout most of the season. But it is an area that has improved of late.

Since Week 15, Mayfield and his receivers have connected on 10-of-17 passes of 20+ air yards for 304 yards and five touchdowns to just one interception.

Given that the Lions secondary is a clear weakness, this presents a huge opportunity for the Bucs to generate explosive plays that can tip the balance of the game. But they will need to capitalize.

Execution will be the key. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales will need to have concepts designed to get his receivers open once again, while the receivers will need to run full bore on their routes. Mayfield will need to be able to put the ball in a place where his guys can catch them. Easier said than done, I know. But the tape shows it will be possible.