Not many are predicting Tampa Bay to upset the 49ers on Sunday. In fact, no one at Pewter Report is. Part of that is because the 49ers still feature one of the best offenses in the NFL, just as they did last year when they trounced the Bucs 35-7.

Tampa Bay’s defense was gashed by a San Francisco offensive attack being led by a rookie making his first start. In order to turn that outcome around the Bucs will need to drastically improve their defensive performance.

The Bucs defense has oscillated between two extremes over the past two weeks. The Ringer’s Ben Solak highlighted what Bucs head coach Todd Bowles attempted to do in the first half against the Texans.

Todd Bowles blitzed C.J. Stroud on 10 of his 24 first half dropbacks, per @TruMediaSports. 41.7 percent.

Stroud went 7 for 9 for 105 yards, 1 TD, and a sack. He didn’t have completion under 10 yards.

In the second half? Bowles blitzed him on only 3 of 20 dropbacks.

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) November 6, 2023

And while Bowles pivoted to the other extreme of virtually never blitzing in the second half of that game, the results were the same or worse. C.J. Stroud completed 16-of-20 passes for 325 yards and four touchdowns in the second half against a four-or-less man rush. The Bucs’ final defensive drive featured zero blitzes and very simplistic coverages. Stroud was able to easily identify and pick apart that conservative approach as he led the Texans down the field for the game-winning touchdown with just seconds remaining on the clock.

A Wholesale Change Against The Titans

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

In week 10 Todd Bowles returned to who he is philosophically and blitzed the hell out of the Titans’ depleted offensive line and rookie quarterback Will Levis. Per Pro Football Focus, the Bucs defense sent five or more rushers on 61% of Levis’ drop backs. And the Titans could not handle the barrage of pass rushers.

Tampa Bay pressured Levis 19 times on 43 drop backs and Bucs pass rushers generated 26 individual pressures. Eight different Bucs defenders logged multiple pressures, led by big Vita Vea (5) and Shaq Barrett (4). Levis was not able to rise above the pressure going 3-of-15 for 40 yards and an interception while under pressure.

That blitz-heavy approach has been the most effective version of the Tampa Bay defense this year. Opposing quarterbacks complete 6.7% less of their passes against the Bucs blitz while their big time throw rate decreases by a quarter of a percent and their turnover-worthy play rate goes up by over two points.

But the most important piece is that the Bucs’ pass rush gets home more often on blitzes. Their pressure rate when blitzing is 33.33% vs less than 29% when not. And through predictable scheme and inconsistent play the back-seven for Tampa Bay has shown that if the quarterback isn’t pressured they cannot be relied on to stop the pass.

Enter Brock Purdy

49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: USA Today

Making his first career start last year against Tampa Bay, things could not have gone any better for 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy against the Bucs. But there was a difference between his performance when he was blitzed and when he wasn’t. He was 9-of-9 for 110 yards and a touchdown when the Bucs opted to rush four-or-less. When given time and clarity, Purdy was able to survey the field, find his best option, and hit the Bucs for 12.2 yards per attempt.

Over his young career, Purdy has shown a susceptibility to the blitz. His yards per attempt decreases 19% and his touchdown and big time throw rates both go down. As with most quarterbacks, Purdy’s effectiveness declines the more chaos is introduced to his processing.

The Bucs’ Model For Success

While Todd Bowles’ approach against Tennessee seemed unrelenting, there is a defensive coordinator in the NFL who makes a 61% blitz rate look like just another day at the office.

Brian Flores is a psychopath (in the best way). pic.twitter.com/s6xcpFqqro

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) November 18, 2023

Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is trying to compensate for a lack of high-end talent on his roster by fully leaning into his blitz-heavy tendencies and seeing if there truly is a limit to how many times he can send extra rushers. According to NFELO.com the Vikings rank ninth in EPA/pass allowed and seventh in EPA/rush allowed. Flores and the Vikings defense employed this strategy of sending five or more rushers on 21 of Purdy’s 33 drop backs, making Bowles’ blitz rate against the Titans look mild by comparison.

Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

The strategy worked in putting Purdy under pressure on 38% of those drop backs, forcing him to make fast decisions while getting the ball out of his hands quickly. With the help of two forced turnovers (one being an interception thrown against the blitz) the Vikings were able to hold an explosive 49ers offense to just 17 points while handing San Francisco the second of what would become three straight losses.

With the Bucs lacking a true elite edge rusher, but two very good interior pass rushers and a good-enough stable of bodies on the outside, they need to supplement with extra pass rushers. Both Antoine Winfield Jr. and Devin White have proven to be extraordinary as add-ons, and Christian Izien and Lavonte David are both plusses in that areas as well.

With the right opportunities these additional rushers could be just what the defense needs to help keep Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense in check. Philosophically, this is right in Todd Bowles’ wheelhouse. And he should lean-in.