It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game. Tampa Bay lost its fourth straight game, 23-20 against San Francisco on a last-second field goal. The Bucs have now lost five of their last six and are 1-5 after a 3-1 start to the season.

Can the 4-6 Bucs get healthy and regroup after the bye week to make a late-season playoff push? Scott Reynolds shares his insight about Tampa Bay’s chances in 2-Point Conversion.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Bucs Defense Lacks Killer Instinct

In three of Tampa Bay’s last five losses, the Bucs defense has been on the field needing to get a sack, a stop, force a punt or a get a takeaway. Instead, the Bucs defense has surrendered game-winning touchdowns on the initial drives in overtime losses at Atlanta and at Kansas City, and Todd Bowles’ unit allowed a game-winning field goal drive with less than a minute left in a 23-20 loss to San Francisco.

Bucs CB Josh Hayes and 49ers WR Deebo Samuel – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The killer instinct that the Bucs defense briefly showed this season in a 20-16 win at Detroit has disappeared for some reason. And if the team has any hope of making a playoff run after the bye week, Todd Bowles’ troops will need to find it.

“The final drive we’re just not finishing,” Bucs outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka said. “We’re just playing three-and-a-half quarters. We’ve got to finish situations. It’s terrible. It hurts a lot. You fight, you claw, you scratch and you come up short, but that’s the NFL. A lot of one-possession games and it ultimately comes down to you getting off the field at the end of the game. Winning and losing is situational football, it’s not what we’re excelling at right now.”

It’s not just the fact that the Tampa Bay defense has surrendered 550 yards (at Atlanta), 508 yards (versus Baltimore), 394 yards (versus Atlanta), 384 yards (at Kansas City) and 413 yards (versus San Francisco) in the last five defeats. Or that the Bucs defense has allowed 36, 41, 31, 30 and 23 points in those last five losses. It’s the fact that Todd Bowles’ troops can’t force stops when they absolutely need to.

Tampa Bay only forced one punt on Sunday, and over the last five losses, the defense has only forced an average of 2.2 punts per game. During the team’s four-game losing streak, the Bucs defense has only forced two takeaways – Sunday’s fumble recovery versus the 49ers came on special teams – while turning over the ball five times.

Bucs DT Vita Vea and 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Keep in mind that 49ers kicker Jake Moody missed three field goals. Add nine potential points to San Francisco’s actual point total and the 49ers should have had 32 points against Tampa Bay’s defense, which would’ve been par for the course, as the Bucs had previously allowed 30 points or more in four straight losses against the Falcons (twice), the Ravens and the Chiefs.

The Bucs have played hard on defense and not given up. But playing hard hasn’t been enough to get the job done during another 1-5 stretch following a 3-1 start for the second year in a row, according to linebacker Lavonte David.

“We played our tails off – never take that away from us, we’ll always play hard,” David said. “We’ve got that part down, but we just have to execute better, play smart football, and play nasty football, play smart, aggressive football [and] make plays. We’re not making enough plays – everybody, myself included – we’re not making enough plays. That’s all it comes down to. We have to make plays when the time comes down to it, and for us to be a great defense, we have to do that. That’s where we’re digging ourselves in a hole at – we have to make plays.”

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said that the defense has to play smarter football at the end of games.

“[We] have to finish ballgames,” Bowles said. “[When] guys get a chance to play, they have to come in, play and execute. We can’t play hard and then not play smart at the end. We have to play smarter football. There’s nothing wrong with how hard we’re playing and how tough we’re playing, but we have to finish games. We have to find a way to finish ballgames. [We’re] making too many mistakes at the end.”

Yet it’s not just about playing smart and playing hard. Finishing games requires a certain do-or-die mentality. Getting off the field instead of giving up game-winning scores has to be non-negotiable.

Whether it’s Bowles’ penchant for playing soft zone defense at the end of some games that has unfortunately translated into a soft mentality by the players or the Bucs just not having their playmakers show up, it’s a mindset that the Bucs just don’t have right now.

“Just look ourselves in the mirror, and ask yourself what type of player you want to be,” David said. “This team needs those – we need elite players at the end of the day. We need players who make plays and do it consistently and that’s what we’re not doing, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Whoever’s out there, we’re not making enough plays, and we have to be better at that.

Bucs ILB Lavonte David and 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“It feels shitty. It’s always in our hands. As a defensive captain of this football team, I’m out there, I’m not doing enough. Everybody is not doing enough, so whatever it is, we have to dig deep and find it. Whatever it is, we have to fix it ASAP.”

The Bucs won’t win another game this season until the defense dramatically improves and learns not only how to finish – but how to finish off their opponents by developing a killer instinct. But that’s going to take all 11 Tampa Bay defenders on the field adopting an “I’ll make the play” mindset.

“We have to have that level of focus and intensity going into that last drive to ultimately win the game,” Tryon-Shoyinka said. “We have to have a lot of grit in our mind and finishing and playing assignment football. … We have to show our ass when we have that opportunity.”

STATEMENT 2. Bucs WR Depth Was Not What The Team Hoped It Was

Bucs WR Trey Palmer – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay’s wide receiving corps was the envy of the league when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were healthy. No other receiving duo in the NFL has had a pair of receivers both have 1,000-yard seasons in each of the last three years like Evans and Godwin have done in Tampa Bay. With Evans and Godwin drawing the best defensive backs each week, it has allowed the team’s revolving door at WR3 – whether it’s been Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer or Sterling Shepard – to play a role versus a lesser cornerback in coverage.

But without Evans and Godwin, the lack of talented depth on the Bucs’ roster has been exposed. Neither the return of Rakim Jarrett nor the elevation of practice squad receivers Ryan Miller and Marquez Callaway have done much to pick up the slack as Evans and Godwin have missed the last three games.

The team had high expectations for McMillan, a third-round pick, but he missed the Chiefs game due to a sore hamstring, feeling like he couldn’t play on it after warm-ups prior the start of the Monday Night Football game. Then McMillan missed two practices during the week and was limited on Friday. Despite keeping him off the inactive list on Sunday in case he felt like he could play against the 49ers, McMillan apparently decided he couldn’t go.

Yet it’s not just McMillan, who has been a big disappointment this year. It’s also been Shepard, a 30-year old veteran, and Palmer, who was WR3 last year.

With games against the Falcons, Chiefs and 49ers in the books, here is the cumulative receiving total for the Bucs receivers over the past three weeks.

WR Rakim Jarrett – 117 snaps, 6 catches for 77 yards (12.8 avg.)
WR Sterling Shepard – 122 snaps, 8 catches for 73 yards (9.1 avg.)
WR Trey Palmer – 93 snaps, 4 catches for 62 yards (15.5 avg.)
WR Jalen McMillan – 59 snaps, 4 catches for 35 yards (8.8 avg.)
WR Ryan Miller – 116 snaps, 5 catches for 31 yards (6.1 avg.), TD
WR Maquez Callaway – 5 snaps, no catches

Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Over the past three games, the Bucs wide receivers have collectively caught 27 passes for 278 yards and one touchdown. That’s an average of nine receptions for 92.6 yards per game from the entire wide receiving corps.

To say that the Bucs can’t wait to get Evans back after the bye week is a huge understatement.

A lot of these young receivers are simply blowing their opportunity to make the most of the extra reps they’ve received in the absence of Godwin, Evans and even McMillan, who has missed the last two games. With Evans turning 32 next August and entering a contract year, and Godwin hitting free agency in March at age 29, the Bucs have overestimated their reserve talent at the receiver position and will need to continue to use draft capital on receivers to give Mayfield better weapons in 2025.

And Tampa Bay will have to hope that McMillan is just having a rough rookie year and that he’s not a bust.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Will The Bucs Fire Todd Bowles During The Bye Week?

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I’m not asking – or answering – this question about Todd Bowles’ job security just to put it out there for public discussion. This topic is already out there for discussion among Bucs fans. We see it in the comments on our Pewter Report X and Facebook social media channels and in our Pewter Report Podcast chatroom as well.

The Glazers have never fired a head coach during the season before. Not even Raheem Morris was fired in the midst of the 2011 season when his team was in free-fall after a 4-1 start, losing the final 11 games which culminated in a 4-12 record. So I don’t expect the Glazers to do so now, especially with the Bucs still in the running for a playoff spot with a 4-6 record and only one opponent – the 6-3 Chargers – with a winning record on the schedule after the bye week.

Given the fact that Bowles helped this team win a Super Bowl in 2020, and won back-to-back NFC South titles plus a home playoff win, that gives him the benefit of the doubt to let this season play out. Especially since Bowles proved that he could dig the team out of a 4-7 hole last year and still win the division in Week 18.

I know most Bucs fans assume that offensive coordinator Liam Coen might be in line to replace Bowles in case the Glazers do fire him and want to move in a different direction after the season. But saddling Coen with an interim head coaching job in-season under this scenario while juggling game-planning for an injured offense, and promoting Larry Foote to defensive play-caller isn’t the answer.

It wouldn’t be fair for Coen to be an interim head coach this year and take on more losses this season and then take over in a full capacity next year. Coen – or any coach in his position – should be given the full benefit of a honeymoon period and the chance to pick his own defensive staff before getting any wins or losses on his record.

We’ll see how this season plays out. Yes, Bowles is on the hot seat. Yes, the organization likes what it has seen from Coen’s offense so far. No, I don’t expect a head coaching change at this juncture during the bye week.

QUESTION 2. Is There Hope On The Horizon In Tampa Bay?

Bucs assistant GM John Spytek and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Yes, not only are there more wins to be had this season, but also in years to come. The Bucs have been ravaged by a crazy amount of injuries this year, which has directly led to some losses. But whether Tampa Bay makes the playoffs in 2024 or not, the future does look bright for the team moving forward.

Tampa Bay’s largest margin of defeat actually came in a 26-7 loss to Denver in Week 3. Otherwise the Bucs have lost overtime games at Atlanta and at Kansas City, as well as a 10-point loss to the Ravens, a five-point loss to the Falcons and a three-point loss to the 49ers. The collective record of the teams the Bucs have lost to is 32-16.

Throw in the fact that the Bucs have also beaten the 8-1 Lions, the 7-2 Eagles and the 7-3 Commanders earlier in the season when the team was healthier and that’s proof that Tampa Bay has enough talent to win. The team just needs to get better coaching on defense and better game management from the head coach to reach its full potential.

As long as the freakish injuries are contained to the 2024 season, there’s no reason why the Bucs can’t be strong contenders for the NFC South title again in 2025, especially with the right moves in free agency and another good draft.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Tampa Bay Won’t Make The Playoffs – Due To Injuries

Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For whatever reason, the Bucs were one of the healthiest teams in the league last year. On offense for example, every Bucs starter starter played all 19 games, including the two postseason games, except for left guard Matt Feiler. That is an incredible rarity that certainly benefited Tampa Bay en route to nine wins and a third straight NFC South division title. But since Week 1 when the team lost right tackle Luke Goedeke and All-Pro free safety Antoine Winfield Jr. for four games due to a concussion and a foot injury, respectively, the Bucs have had a weekly onslaught of injuries.

Since Week 2, Tampa Bay has seen at least two major starters miss a game due to injury – and sometimes that number has swelled as high as three or four. On Sunday against the 49ers for example, the Bucs were without starting wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and starting secondary members Jamel Dean and Tykee Smith. Then the team lost left tackle Tristan Wirfs to a knee injury versus San Francisco – an MCL sprain, which will cost him about four weeks – and star cornerback Zyon McCollum had to leave the game in the fourth quarter due to tweaking his hamstring.

So even if the team has a favorable stretch of games coming up after they bye against a slew of teams with losing records, will the Bucs even have enough healthy stars available to capitalize? The Bucs have yet to find an insect repellent for the injury bug that just keeps biting this team on a weekly basis. I have no doubt that if the Bucs were at full strength – or closer to it – that Tampa Bay’s record would be better than it is right now.

And more importantly, there would be enough wins to make the postseason – even as a Wild Card. Unless the injuries in Tampa Bay just suddenly stop, the path to the postseason will be a very perilous one for the Buccaneers.

PREDICTION 2. Bucs Will Not Have A 1,000-Yard Rusher Or Receiver This Year

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

The last time the Bucs didn’t have a 1,000-yard rusher or a 1,000-yard receiver in any season was back in 2011. Running back LeGarrett Blount rushed for 781 yards and wide receiver Mike Williams had 771 yards receiving as Tampa Bay went 4-12. The difference was that the Bucs offense ranked 19th in the league, averaging 17.9 yards per game.

This year’s Bucs team may not have a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver, but Liam Coen’s offense is averaging 361.5 yards per game, which ranks eighth in the league, by using more of an ensemble cast – mainly due to injuries to the team’s primary weapons, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With 576 yards receiving, Godwin was certainly on pace to hit 1,000 yards receiving before his season-ending ankle injury.

Evans has 335 yards and has averaged 48 yards per game prior to a hamstring injury that cost him the last three games. He would need to average 95 yards per game over the next seven games to hit 1,000 yards. But Evans’ career average is just 74.6 yards per game over his 10 and a half year career in Tampa Bay. When Evans returns to action, he’ll also be a marked man and should draw double teams, which will make it even harder to average 95 yards per game.

The Bucs are running the ball better than they have in recent memory, but it’s been by committee. Bucky Irving leads Tampa Bay with 492 yards, averaging 49.2 yards per game. He’s on pace to hit 836 yards. Irving hasn’t even had a 100-yard game this season. In fact, the Bucs have only had one rusher hit 100 yards in a game and that was Sean Tucker, who had 136 yards rushing and a touchdown at New Orleans in Week 6.