Bucs head coach Todd Bowles has long been known for his defensive prowess. He has also been known for his predilection for single-high safeties and a base Cover 3 style defense. But is that reputation warranted? It turns out it may not be.

It is true during his first three years in Tampa Bay as defensive coordinator the Bucs, Bowles ran a defense that leaned heavily on Cover 3 as its base concept.

Per “The Kneel Down” over the course of 2019-2021 the Bucs did run Cover 3 more than any other type of coverage. There were 919 snaps featured Cover 3 over that time period. That was good for 32% of all defensive snaps and over 200 more snaps than the next highest coverage. That second-highest coverage? That would be Cover 1. Cover 1 is the other scheme that relies on a single-high safety. And the Bucs ran it 25% of the time from 2019-2021. Over that time period the Bucs ran a single-high principle almost 60% of the time. That checks out, right? Well, yes and no.

One thing we neglect to acknowledge when talking about Bowles and his defensive principles are how they compare to the league average. And when we include that context, we may want to stop referring to him as a “Cover 3 guy.” Over that same time period, the NFL ran Cover 3 over 35% of the time. And as for Cover 1, the league average has been about 29%. Combined you are looking at single-high safeties across the league about 64% of the time. That’s about 7% higher than the Bucs. Here is a breakdown of each of the most common coverage rates for Tampa Bay as compared to the league average:

As you can see, the Bucs ran each two-high principles across the board higher than league average, if only slightly. But when you add them together it becomes a more significant variance.

What Coverage Is The 2022 Bucs Running The Most?

And that brings us to 2022. The Bucs experienced a good bit of change to their secondary this year. Gone was last year’s starting strong safety Jordan Whitehead. In his stead is rotational safety Mike Edwards, with veteran Logan Ryan making regular appearances on the field. Benched is last year’s starting corner Sean Murphy-Bunting. Replacing him in base sets is Jamel Dean, with Antoine Winfield, Jr. rotating down to replace him in the slot on nickel sets.

Have these personnel changes driven any changes in the coverage choices Bowles has employed? And how does that compare to league average?

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and OLBs coach Bob Sanders – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Now before we go any further, I need to issue this caveat. We are only three weeks into the 2022 season, so we are dealing with small sample sizes. But this data can at the very least show us some early trends to monitor. With all of that said there are quite a few shifts to note. Namely the Bucs have slashed their dependency on Cover 1. While the league as a whole has trended down on this man coverage by about 7%, the Bucs have gone further. Tampa Bay is using Cover 1 half as often as they did over the past three years. In its place they have increased their usage of Cover 2, Cover 3 and Cover 4.

What’s interesting is that both Dean and Carlton Davis are more known for their man coverage skills than their zone prowess. And yet the Bucs are finding extreme success with their new defense this year. They lead the league in scoring defense, allowing just nine points per game. And per The Football Database, the Bucs are tied with the Jaguars and the Ravens for first in the NFL with eight takeaways.

Bowles’ status as a defensive savant has never really been in question. But with an enviable roster that includes playmakers at each level, but especially in the secondary, he is taking his mad-scientist ways to the next level.