It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions.

The Bucs defense was dominant in a 9-0 win at Carolina over the 2-15 Panthers that clinched a third-straight division title for 9-8 Tampa Bay. Antoine Winfield Jr. was the hero again with a daring forced fumble that prevented an early Carolina touchdown and his sixth sack of the season. The Bucs offense struggled to score points, and quarterback Baker Mayfield suffered an ankle injury against the Panthers. But the reliable Chase McLaughlin was a perfect 3-of-3 on his field goal attempts and that was enough to win at Carolina.

The Bucs have won five of their last six games and will host an 11-6 Eagles team that has lost five of its last six games and is reeling from some serious injuries to key starters. Tampa Bay hosts Philadelphia on Monday night in the Super Wild Card round of the NFC playoffs.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Todd Bowles, Bucs Are Saved By Antoine Winfield Jr.

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

Let’s be real.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs were fortunate to beat a Panthers team, 9-0, that dropped three potential Baker Mayfield interceptions in the first half. Tampa Bay lucked out that a Panthers touchdown run in the fourth quarter was called back due to an illegal formation penalty that would have tightened the score to 9-7 late in the game. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka had a strip-sack on the very next play.

And the Bucs were lucky that wide receiver D.J. Chark got greedy and tried to score what looked like a sure-fire touchdown by extending the ball out at the goal line with one hand in the first quarter. That’s when Bucs defensive MVP Antoine Winfield Jr. made an All-Pro play and made Chark pay by forcing a key fumble – his NFL-leading sixth forced fumble of the year. The loose ball was recovered in the end zone by Jamel Dean and crisis was averted.

Who knows how an early 7-0 lead by Carolina would have impacted the final outcome? On a day when the Bucs offense wasn’t good enough to find the end zone at all, would a 7-0 lead given the Panthers enough momentum to propel them to victory? Would trailing 7-0 on the road to the worst team in football have forced the Bucs to press and play tight, perhaps turning the ball over?

Thanks to Winfield’s heroics the Bucs – and head coach Todd Bowles – live to fight another day. It’s so fitting that Winfield, who is Bowles’ prized chess piece in his defense, saved the day once again for Tampa Bay.

“It was a defensive battle – we got enough,” Bowles said. “Thank goodness for Winfield’s play on the goal line. Thank goodness for Chase (McLaughlin) kicking some field goals. We knew it was going to be a tough battle. We knew we had to play four quarters. We made less mistakes, and we got a division title.”

Winfield was an egregious Pro Bowl snub this year. The kind of snub that makes you hate the farce that is the Pro Bowl even more than you did before this year’s list of Pro Bowlers were even announced. But with the fact that Winfield made such a daring play – and added his sixth sack of the season in Carolina – and the attention his snub has gotten around the league, let’s hope the NFL has taken notice of this dastardly mistake and corrects it with a first-team All-Pro nod.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For Winfield and Bowles, who likely would have been fired if Tampa Bay lost at Carolina and finished 8-9 again (but without a postseason berth that comes with an NFC South title), they’re much happier with making the playoffs.

“Well, he can get us to the playoffs just like he did,” Bowles said of Winfield. “Winning playoff games and Super Bowls, that’s what helps your Pro Bowl snubs.”

A playoff win at home against the Eagles would do wonders for Bowles’ job security, as he would be able to prove to the Glazers, general manager Jason Licht, his team and Bucs fans that he can win in the postseason, especially after last year’s 31-14 trouncing at home against the Cowboys in the Wild Card round. Tampa Bay has opened as a +2.5 home underdog to Philadelphia.

Yet Bowles thinks that the Bucs, who have won five out of the last six games, can be dangerous heading into the postseason – especially with Winfield being such a huge factor for Tampa Bay’s defense.

“We know we’re counted out,” Bowles said. “To be dangerous, you first have to get in. We’re in, so now we have a chance to be dangerous.”

STATEMENT 2. Dave Canales, Bucs Offense Must Score More Points

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

After struggling to score points at the start of the season, the Bucs increased their scoring average to 21 points per game during a four-game winning streak that helped Tampa Bay win four straight games to go from 4-7 to 8-7 heading into Week 17. Dave Canales and the Bucs offense seemed to turn a corner and gain some real momentum, starting with a 21-18 win at home against Carolina.

Then Tampa Bay’s offense scored 27 of the team’s 29 points in a comeback win at Atlanta before throttling Green Bay for 34 points and Jacksonville for 30 points. But over the last two games, Canales has lost his touch and there seems to be some kind of force field at the goal line that keeps the Bucs offense out of it.

New Orleans raced 0ut to a 20-0 lead heading into the fourth quarter of a 23-13 victory at Tampa Bay in Week 17. The Bucs rallied with two touchdown passes from Baker Mayfield, but it was too little too late. Then the Bucs had to rely on the strong and able leg of kicker Chase McLaughlin for all nine points in the NFC South-clinching win at Carolina on Sunday.

The Bucs offense is averaging 11 points per game over the last two weeks, and that’s not going to cut it against the Eagles, even though Philadelphia is struggling right now on both sides of the ball. Just go back to Week 3 when the Eagles beat the Bucs 25-11 and out-gained them 472 yards to 174 yards.

Tampa Bay’s defense ended the 2023 season on a high note with a shutout in Carolina, and the Bucs finished tied for sixth in scoring defense, allowing just 19.1 points per game. Philadelphia’s scoring defense has taken quite a tumble from last year when it ranked seventh in the league, surrendering 19.8 points per game, to 30th in the NFL, allowing a whopping 25.2 points per game.

There will be opportunities for Canales and the Bucs offense to rebound and put up more points against the Eagles defense this time around. Tampa Bay just has to capitalize on those opportunities to have a chance at winning.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Are The Bucs Catching The Eagles At The Right Time?

Bucs S Antonie Winfield, Jr. and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Yes. The Eagles look like a shell of their former selves as they limp into the playoffs, having lost five of their last six games. Philadelphia started the season 10-1, including a 25-11 drubbing of the Bucs in Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football in Week 3. The Eagles beat the Rams, Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills during that stretch, but ran into a buzz saw against the 49ers, who got revenge for their NFC Championship Game loss a year ago with a 42-19 win in Philly.

The Eagles suffered two more losses in a row at Dallas and at Seattle before winning at home against the Giants, 33-25. Then came back-to-back losses to the Cardinals, 35-31, and to the Giants, 27-10. More importantly, quarterback Jalen Hurts hurt his middle finger on his throwing hand in Sunday’s loss at New York and had to leave the game. His status remains up in the air for Monday’s playoff game at Tampa Bay.

Over the last six games, five of which have been losses, Hurts has only thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions along with three rushing scores. Making matters worse is that star wide receiver A.J. Brown suffered a knee injury against the Giants and fellow receiver DeVonta Smith missed that game with an ankle injury.

The Eagles’ top cornerback Darius Slay missed Sunday’s game as he’s continues to come back from knee surgery, and rookie safety Sydney Brown tore his ACL against the Giants. This could be the absolute best time for the Bucs to be catching the Eagles in the postseason.

QUESTION 2. Will Baker Mayfield Be Healthy Enough To Be Dynamic Against Philly?

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Possibly. Baker Mayfield entered Sunday’s game with bruised ribs and that may have had an effect on some of his throws throughout the game. Mayfield nearly had three passes picked off and missed a deep shot to Mike Evans that could have been a touchdown in the first quarter.

But Mayfield’s rib injury isn’t the more pressing concern. He suffered an ankle injury when he was sacked in the first half of Sunday’s 9-0 win in Carolina. Mayfield, who is as tough as they come, didn’t miss a snap and played through the injury. But ankle sprains can be tricky, and his injured ankle could swell up on Monday. A swollen, sore ankle can affect Mayfield’s footwork in the pocket when throwing, as well as his ability to scramble and avoid sacks.

The good news for Mayfield and the Bucs is that Tampa Bay’s playoff game against Philadelphia will be on Monday night, rather than Saturday or Sunday afternoon. That will give the Bucs quarterback an extra day or two to rest, recover and receive treatment for his sore ribs and his injured ankle. Tampa Bay will need Mayfield at his best to beat Philadelphia. Mayfield was pedestrian in Week 3, completing just 15-of-25 passes for 146 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the Bucs’ 25-11 loss to the Eagles.

“As for Baker, I’ll see how he feels and how he goes through his treatment this week, and we’ll make that determination as the week goes,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said.

Of course the extra few days of rest also benefits a banged up Eagles team, too.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. YaYa Diaby’s Coming Out Party Continues In Prime Time

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The last time the Bucs played the Eagles, they were dominated by Philly’s offense, which rolled up 472 yards on 78 plays in a 25-11 trouncing of Tampa Bay. The Eagles had nearly an 18-minute time of possession advantage and ran for 201 yards on 40 carries, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. That game was rookie outside linebacker YaYa Diaby’s third regular season game in the NFL, and he played just 25 snaps, which was only 31% of the total snaps on defense.

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka played 50 snaps, while fellow starter Shaq Barrett logged 46 snaps. Anthony Nelson was the top reserve at the time, and posted 31 snaps – six more than Diaby back in Week 3. Since Diaby has been thrust into the starting lineup during the 49ers game, he’s logged 5.5 of his 7.5 sacks, which leads the team, and he’s forced a fumble and recovered one.

The Eagles didn’t see this version of Diaby back in Week 3 when he made just one tackle. Diaby, who is coming off a career-high six-tackle effort at Carolina in addition to notching yet another sack, could be a real force against the Eagles against the run and rushing the passer. Whoever starts at quarterback for Philadelphia – Jalen Hurts or Marcus Mariota – will have to deal No. 0’s speed and power on a more regular basis now that Diaby has become a starter in Tampa Bay. The entire nation will be watching, too.

Make sure you tune into Monday’s Pewter Report Podcast when YaYa Diaby joins us at 4:00 p.m. ET.

PREDICTION 2. Bucs Beat The Eagles And Todd Bowles Gets A Signature Win

I know I picked the Bucs to beat the Saints and lose to the Panthers, and got both of those picks wrong. I also know I picked Tampa Bay to beat Dallas in the home playoff game on Monday Night Football last year. And I’m aware that the Bucs aren’t exactly great in prime time.

But I really like this matchup of the Bucs catching the Eagles at the right time. Maybe I should pick against them for some reverse psychology voodoo or something, but as Matt Matera said on our most recent Pewter Report Podcast, there is a version of the Bucs that can beat the Eagles. And I think that version shows up on Monday night.