SR’s Bucs Draft Insider

No SR’s Fab 5 this week due to the draft, so here’s my pre-draft SR’s 2023 Bucs Draft Insider for you to enjoy. Remember to tune in to the Pewter Report LIVE Draft Show – Energized by CELSIUS energy drinks. Watch the show live one-hour prior to the 2023 NFL Draft each day on PewterReport.com or live streaming on our PewterReportTV YouTube channel.

Join Us For The Pewter Report LIVE Draft Show – Streaming On April 27-29

Bucs fans can tune into all three LIVE Draft Shows by visiting the PewterReport.com home page, or our PewterReportTV page on YouTube. The Pewter Report team will be broadcasting live from the Bucs headquarters at the AdventHealth Training Center and will have live reporting and reaction to the Todd Bowles and Jason Licht press conferences on each day of the draft.

Pewter Report LIVE Draft Show Schedule

Thursday • April 27 • 7pm ET

Friday • April 28 • 6pm ET

Saturday • April 29 • 11am ET

As the leader in Bucs news and analysis and draft coverage, Pewter Report will focus its three-day coverage on the Bucs’ draft plans and draft picks, with a heavy emphasis on the team’s NFC South rivals, too. Yet, Pewter Report will discuss every draft pick made by every NFL team and offer up commentary and analysis on all of those selections as well.

The Pewter Report LIVE Draft Show viewers are encouraged to ask draft questions and sound off on all of the Bucs draft picks with the live commenting features that will accompany the live broadcast displayed on the home page of the site.

The Pewter Report LIVE Draft Show will begin one hour before the start of each day of the 2023 NFL Draft to make sure Bucs fans and NFL fans are prepared for the day’s action.

Would The Bucs Draft A QB In The First Round?

Kentucky QB Will Levis – Photo by: USA Today

It’s unlikely that the two most mocked quarterbacks to the Bucs – Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson – will even be on the board at No. 19 when Tampa Bay is on the clock. And with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask, a second-round pick in 2021, on the roster, Tampa Bay doesn’t need to trade up to get another quarterback.

Carolina (No. 1), Houston (No. 2, No. 12), Indianapolis (No. 4) and Tennessee (No. 11) could all use a quarterback, and Las Vegas (No. 7) and Atlanta (No. 8) could be wild cards to take a quarterback. That’s four teams – possibly six teams – that need or could use a quarterback. It’s hard to see any of the top four quarterbacks sliding past the Texans’ other pick at No. 12.

But what if Levis or Richardson were there at No. 19? The problem with drafting either would be that general manager Jason Licht is essentially admitting that he wasted a second-round pick on Trask, and giving up on Trask before he even had the chance to compete for the starting job.

The other issue is a logistical one. A three-way QB competition in training camp splits the reps in thirds (33%), whereas a two-way QB battle for the starting job splits the reps 45-45 with the last 10 reps going to the third-string backup. So, a three-way competition would rob 12% of the reps from both Mayfield and Trask.

Could new offensive coordinator Dave Canales and head coach Todd Bowles see enough to determine a starter if the reps were split 33-33-33? What would make it even more difficult would be the fact that there are only three preseason games now.

And remember, the ultimate objective is to find the starting quarterback as soon as possible and then prepare for the season opener. A three-way quarterback race could drag until September. And then, will the eventual starter have had enough reps behind the starting offensive line and throwing to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Russell Gage and Cade Otton?

Keep in mind that the Bucs will be learning a new offensive scheme with a new playbook this year. And typically, a team that already has an established starter sees that quarterback get 70% of the reps in training camp. So, even if Mayfield and Trask split the reps 45-45 by virtue of the competition, that’s 25% fewer reps than a typical starting QB would get in camp.

In the case of using a first-round pick on a quarterback, three’s a crowd, especially this year in Tampa Bay.

Will The Bucs Draft A Quarterback At All?

Houston QB Clayton Tune – Photo By: USA Today

There’s a good chance the Bucs draft a quarterback, as the team needs a No. 3 QB, but if it happens, it’s likely to happen on Day 3. Blaine Gabbert wasn’t re-signed in free agency, and Tampa Bay will be moving on from Ryan Griffin, who was the veteran practice squad QB the last two seasons.

The Bucs had Houston quarterback Clayton Tune in for a Top 30 pre-draft visit. Tampa Bay also had Kentucky’s Will Levis and Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker in for Top 30 visits. The Bucs formally interviewed Hooker, Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Tune and all of the other Senior Bowl quarterbacks had a formal meeting with Tampa Bay in Mobile, and then had an informal meeting with the Bucs in Indianapolis. One other quarterback to keep an eye on late on Day 3 is Fordham’s Tim DeMorat, who had a Zoom meeting with the Bucs.

DeMorat dominated the Patriot League in the FCS, completing 61.3% of his passes for 13,461 yards with 123 touchdowns and 39 interceptions as a five-year starter. The strong-armed, 6-foot-3, 219-pound passer completed 65.3% of his passes for 4,891 yards with 56 TDs and 10 INTs last year.

Will Bijan Robinson Become A Buccaneer?

Texas RB Bijan Robinson – Photo by: USA Today

Texas running back Bijan Robinson has been mocked to the Bucs at No. 19 for months now. And with Robinson telling Dan Patrick that one of the two teams he’s visited before the draft was Tampa Bay, the idea is not completely far-fetched. The Bucs parted ways with Leonard Fournette and have a pair of unproven third-round running backs in Rachaad White and Ke’Shawn Vaughn on the roster, in addition to newcomer Chase Edmonds. Tampa Bay needs another back, and Robinson is clearly the best one in this draft.

While drafting running backs in the first round typically isn’t great value, there is an exception for generational backs – especially later in the first round. Yet, there is only one ball to go around, and to justify taking Robinson in the first round means he’ll have to be the workhouse back in Tampa Bay. That means that general manager Jason Licht will have essentially wasted two third-round picks on White and Vaughn, who would be backup running backs.

For that reason alone, I don’t see that happening. There’s no way Licht would invest three premium picks (Day 1 or Day 2) at running back.

As for Robinson, look for him to go to the Falcons at No. 8, the Eagles at No. 10, the Texans at No. 12 or for the Cowboys to trade up from No. 26 for him. I just don’t see Robinson lasting until the 19th pick.

When Will The Bucs Draft A Running Back?

Now that offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich is gone and Dave Canales has arrived, the Bucs are certainly more committed to running the ball. But with the departure of starting left tackle Donovan Smith, starting right guard Shaq Mason and swing tackle Josh Wells, fortifying the offensive line, especially at offensive tackle, is more of a priority. Without a rock-solid offensive line opening up holes, no running back is going to have success – not even Bijan Robinson.

The Bucs don’t need to spend a first-round pick on a running back – either Robinson or Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs, who was also in for a Top 30 visit. So, when will Tampa Bay select another running back to round out its depth chart? Remember, general manager Jason Licht has used three third-round picks on running backs in his nine drafts in Tampa Bay – Charles Sims (2014), Ke’Shawn Vaughn (2020) and Rachaad White (2022).

So don’t rule out the third round, especially if the Bucs address greater needs like offensive tackle and outside linebacker in the first two rounds. The Bucs have brought in three backs who could be selected in the third round, including UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet, Texas’ Roschon Johnson and Illinois’ Chase Brown. Tampa Bay is looking for a physical angry runner, and as talented as Robinson is, Charbonnet might be just as good at the next level due to his insane power and tackle-breaking ability.

See for yourself in the clip below.

Folks, that’s the definition of “angry runner.”

Canales saw undrafted free agent Thomas Rawls led the Seahawks in rushing in 2015, while seventh-round pick Chris Carson led Seattle in rushing from 2019-2021. Both were “angry runner” types. So, the Bucs might want to wait until Day 3 and use a late-round pick on Minnesota’s Mohamed Ibrahim or Central Michigan’s Lew Nichols and use a premium pick elsewhere.

Who Would Be The Bucs’ Wild Card Selection In Round 1?

Mississippi State CB Emanuel Forbes – Photo by: USA Today

It’s tough to predict the Bucs’ draft plans in the first round because they have the No. 19 overall pick. Pewter Report has had five different players at No. 19 in all five of our Bucs Mock Drafts.

Boston College wide receiver Zay Flowers was at No. 19 in our first one, followed by Mississippi State cornerback Emmanuel Forbes in our second and Alabama safety/nickel Brian Branch in our third edition. Tennessee right tackle Darnell Wright was our fourth first-round selection, followed by Oklahoma left tackle Anton Harrison in Pewter Report’s fifth and final Bucs Mock Draft.

That’s a far cry from having quarterback Jameis Winston in all five of the top spots in the 2015 Pewter Report Bucs Mock Drafts, and having linebacker Devin White atop the Pewter Report Bucs Mock Draft in four out of five editions in 2019, including the final one.

If you’re looking for a first-round wild card selection – a real surprise – for the Bucs, it may not be Texas running back Bijan Robinson, Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson or Kentucky quarterback Will Levis. Look no further than Forbes, who has two things the Bucs really covet on defense – speed and interceptions.

Both Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht have said that they want to field a faster team in 2023. Forbes blazed a 4.35 time in the 40-yard dash, and that tied Maryland cornerback Deonte Banks, who was in for a Top 30 visit, for the fourth-fastest cornerback time at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Bowles has lamented the fact that the Bucs regressed in interceptions last year, falling from 17 in 2021 to just 10 last year. Unlike Banks, who is projected to go in the middle-to-late first round and had just two career interceptions, Forbes was a takeaway machine for the Bulldogs. Using his speed, instincts and ball skills, Forbes notched 16 interceptions and broke up 35 passes in three years and recorded six pick-sixes in his career.

That’s not a typo. Six pick-sixes.

The 6-foot Forbes might be a Top 5 pick if he didn’t weight 166 pounds. That’s not a typo, either. Forbes was 31 pounds lighter than Banks, who weighs 197 pounds. Forbes has such a wiry frame that he might only top out at 170 pounds. And even moving Forbes to the slot would be tricky because he could easily be blocked by pulling guards and tight ends in the running game. Forbes is physical for his size, but at 166 pounds he can only do so much.

The Mississippi State cornerback has two traits the Bucs really desire, but will his lack of ideal size take him out of the Bucs draft plans in the first round?

Potential Tampa Bay Trade Down Partners

Bucs GM Jason Licht – Photo courtesy of the Buccaneers

Unless it’s for Tennessee right tackle Darnell Wright, I don’t see the Bucs trading up in this year’s draft. However, I could see Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht trying to trade down, as he did last year, for an extra pick or two. The Bucs traded out of the first round completely and selected defensive tackle Logan Hall with the first pick in the second round in 2022.

So who would be some viable trade down partners for Tampa Bay? Teams that have plenty of draft ammo, of course.

Seattle, which picks one spot later at No. 20, has 10 draft picks. Jacksonville, which picks at No. 24, has nine draft picks. The Giants, who have 10 picks, have the 25th overall pick. Kansas City, which has the No. 31 overall pick, also has 10 picks.

A Possible Trade With The Cowboys?

The most intriguing potential trade partner might be Dallas at No. 26, especially if Texas running back Bijan Robinson is on the board at No. 19 and the Cowboys want to move up seven spots to get him. The No. 19 overall pick is worth 875 points on the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. Dallas’ No. 26 pick is worth 700 points. That’s a 175-point differential that the Cowboys have to make up.

Dallas’ third-round pick (No. 90) is worth 140 points. That leaves 35 points worth of value that Tampa Bay is owed. Because Dallas only has seven picks, it likely won’t want to part with another one, leaving the team with just five. The Cowboys’ fourth-round pick (No. 129) is worth 43 points, leaving eight points on the table. That could be swapped for the Bucs’ late sixth-rounder, which is worth 13 points, and Tampa Bay could call it even.

That trade with the Cowboys would leave the Bucs with 10 picks – the 26th overall pick, a second-rounder (No. 50), two third-rounders (No. 82, No. 90), a fourth-rounder (No. 129), two fifth-rounders (No. 153, No. 175), three sixth-rounders (No. 179, No. 181) and a seventh-rounder (No. 252). Is it worth the risk to move back seven spots to pick up a third-rounder and a fourth-rounder in this scenario? That’s the kind of deal that Licht has to decide.

Late First-Round Bucs Pod/Pool

Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison – Photo by: USA Today

In order for the Bucs to consider moving back in the first round – perhaps as far as seven spots – there has to be several players left on the draft board who they would value taking. If Tampa Bay were to hypothetically trade back to No. 26 with Dallas, there would have to be seven players in a pod/pool worth selecting in order to make the trade worthwhile.

Let’s assume Ohio State left tackle Paris Johnson Jr., Tennessee right tackle Darnell Wright and Georgia left tackle Broderick Jones are off the board. And let’s assume Oklahoma left tackle Anton Harrison is still on the board. A seven-man pool or pod of potential Bucs targets could include Harrison, Iowa State outside linebacker Will McDonald, Maryland cornerback Deonte Banks, Mississippi State cornerback Emanuel Forbes, Kansas State outside linebacker Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Iowa inside linebacker Jack Campbell and Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid.

Are all those players on the same tier as Harrison? Only the Bucs know for sure.

Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs, LSU outside linebacker BJ Ojulari, Auburn outside linebacker Derick Hall and Iowa tight end Sam LaPorta might not be far behind, depending on how Tampa Bay ranks them. In order for the Bucs to consider moving back, they can’t afford to take a significantly lesser player just to pick up an extra mid-round pick or two.

If Not Anton Harrison, Then Who?

Iowa State OLB Will McDonald IV – Photo by: USA Today

If the top four offensive tackles are off the board – or if the Bucs don’t want to draft Oklahoma left tackle Anton Harrison, who is regarded as the fourth-ranked tackle this year – then who would Tampa Bay select? Of course, it’s hard to say not knowing who is available on the draft board for this pre-draft exercise.

But if the Bucs pass on drafting an offensive tackle and want to go the edge rusher route, Iowa State outside linebacker Will McDonald would look awfully good in red and pewter. Tampa Bay is on the hunt for a proven pass rusher, especially as 30-year old Shaq Barrett attempts to return to form from an Achilles injury and former first-round pick Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has stalled out at four sacks in each of the last two years.

McDonald, who was in for a Top 30 visit and also met formally with the Bucs at the Senior Bowl and at the NFL Scouting Combine, lived behind the line of scrimmage at Iowa State. He recorded 40.5 tackles for loss, 34 sacks, 10 forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in his five-year career.

McDonald posted a pair of double-digit sack seasons in 2020 and 2021 and has an array of pass rush moves to utilize. His long arms allow him to reach past tackles to grab quarterbacks, and his 6-foot-3, 239-pound frame is big enough to succeed with as an outside linebacker in Todd Bowles’ defense.

He also batted down seven passes at the line of scrimmage for the Cyclones, and that’s a trait the Bucs like along the defensive line. McDonald and Harrison are two of my draft crushes, and I would be thrilled to see the Bucs draft either one.