It’s a sad state of affairs for the Bucs as Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season comes to a close. Four straight losses and a 4-6 record at the bye week means conversations about draft positioning and mock drafts are more worthwhile than those about the playoff race and how far this team can go in January.

Longtime Buccaneers fans are all too familiar with talking about the next year’s draft in November of every season, but since the team made its run to the playoffs in 2020 and won Super Bowl LV, the draft talk has largely been delayed until late January and early February. Tampa Bay currently owns the NFC’s longest active streak of playoff appearances (four), but with seven games to play in the current campaign, that streak looks like it’s very much in danger.

But there’s a problem for anyone ready to turn their attention toward the 2025 NFL Draft, and it’s that the Bucs’ draft positioning may only rise so high.

Bucs Aren’t Bad Enough To Be Near The Bottom Of The NFL

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

At 4-6, the Bucs aren’t completely out of the playoff picture yet. But that kind of record puts them in no man’s land, as they’re two or three games out of being a postseason team and two or three games away from being among the league’s worst teams.

Especially in this year’s NFL, a middle-of-the-road record is perhaps more problematic than ever in terms of draft positioning. That’s because the bottom of the league is extremely crowded right now. It may not stay as jumbled as it is now, but a quick glance at the top of the current 2025 Draft Order on Tankathon shows how much “competition” there is for even a Top 5 pick.

Teams currently slated to pick first through sixth all have just two wins. There are then three-win teams from seventh through 11th. The four-win Bucs are in the next grouping, which includes teams from 12th through 17th. Given its strength of schedule (and the fact that some of those four-win teams are 4-4 or 4-5, not 4-6), Tampa Bay finds itself toward the top of that collection of teams. General manager Jason Licht and his staff are currently slated to be on the clock at the 14th pick.

There are still eight weeks left in the regular season, so there is plenty of time for things to change. Those two- and three-win teams could run into some more wins and crowd the middle of the pack more than the bottom of the league. But at this stage of the season, you can generally tell what teams are and where they’re headed down the stretch.

The Post-Bye Schedule Is Likely To Lead To More Bucs Wins

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Not only are the Bucs just good enough to be better than the league’s bottom dwellers, but their final record is very likely to be right around .500 given their schedule over the final seven games after the bye week.

After its Week 11 bye, Tampa Bay takes on the 2-8 New York Giants on the road. Then comes a trip to face the 3-7 Panthers before returning home to host the 2-7 Raiders. A visit to the 6-3 Chargers out west should prove tough, but a Sunday night game at the 3-6, Dak Prescott-less Cowboys and home games against the 3-7 Panthers and 3-7 Saints make up the closing three-game stretch for the Bucs.

So, over the final seven games, Tampa Bay plays six games against sub-.500 teams. Todd Bowles’ has team has fallen pretty far since its 3-1 start, but it hasn’t fallen that far. While a 4-3 record against those teams would be pretty poor given the level of competition, that still puts the Bucs at 8-9. Anything better – whether it’s 5-2 to get to 8-9 or 6-1 to reach 10-7 – is going to make the final record just good enough to be on the outside of the playoffs and way outside the top 10 in the 2025 Draft.

Where The Bucs Look Likely To Draft In 2025

Bucs assistant GM John Spytek and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The likeliest scenario at this point is the Bucs finishing somewhere between eight and 10 wins. In 2024, the highest an 8-9 team picked was the Broncos at 12th overall. The highest-drafting 9-8 team was the Saints, who picked 14th overall, and the highest-drafting 10-win, non-playoff team was the Rams, who picked 19th.

With the Bucs’ overall strength of schedule being solid, that’s going to drag them down the draft order further, too. If they finish with eight to 10 wins alongside a host of other teams, there’s a good chance their strength of schedule may be up at the top – or near the top – of that group.

Right now, the Bucs would have the 14th overall pick in the 2025 Draft. Their strength of schedule is at .521, which is the best of the three 4-6 teams. The more this team wins down the stretch, the later it’ll end up picking come April.

So, on this current path, Tampa Bay may find itself picking in the late-teens. Of course, good players can be had no matter where a team is drafting. Licht and his staff have proven that over the years. But in a season like this one that seems destined to snap the playoff and division title streaks, not even coming away with a premium pick in the 2025 NFL Draft might as well be salt in the wound.