It’s playoff time in Tampa Bay for the fourth straight year. How about that? The No. 4 seed Bucs and No. 5 seed Eagles will wrap up the NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend at Raymond James Stadium on Monday night, with the winner advancing to the NFC Divisional Round and the loser hitting the offseason after crashing out of the postseason early.

On the surface, the Eagles would look like the clear favorite given they’re the defending NFC champions and the Bucs barely finished above .500, needing a 9-0 win over the 2-15 Panthers to win the division in Week 18. But these two teams closed the season by going in opposite directions, as Philadelphia lost five of six while Tampa Bay won five of six.

Last year, the Bucs snuck into the playoffs as NFC South champions with an 8-9 record. Their reward was an ugly first-round exit, which came in the form of a 31-14 home loss to the Cowboys. One year later, Todd Bowles and Co. are back in the same spot, only they got in as NFC South champions with a 9-8 record. Will Tampa Bay be able to avoid a different fate this time around? Or will Philadelphia put its ugly end to the regular season in the past and rally in hopes of getting back to the Super Bowl?

The Last Time…

Eagles DT Fletcher Cox and Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

The last meeting between these two teams wasn’t all that long ago, as Philadelphia visited Tampa Bay in Week 3. That was also a Monday Night Football matchup with both teams 2-0 at the time, and the Eagles cruised to a 25-11 victory.

Jalen Hurts didn’t even need to be at his best as the Philly run game — especially D’Andre Swift — dominated. The Eagles converted 10-of-16 third downs they faced, leading to an 18-minute time of possession advantage over the Bucs.

On the other side, Tampa Bay’s offense never got off the ground and Philadelphia held Baker Mayfield and Co. to 174 total yards.

The Eagles lead the all-time series between the two teams 9-8, though the Bucs won the series’ last playoff meeting — 31-15 on Jan. 16, 2022 — to take a 3-2 lead in playoff games between the two sides.

How The Bucs And Eagles Are Trending

What makes this matchup more intriguing than it otherwise might’ve been is how the two teams ended the regular season.

For the Bucs, it was almost a dream finish to the year. At one time, they were 4-7 and staring down their first playoff-less season since 2019. But four straight wins got them to 8-7 and put them on top of the NFC South. From there, they needed to win one of their final two games.

Bucs OC Dave Canales and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

That’s exactly what they did, splitting their final two games of the year to crash the postseason as division champions at 9-8. The final two weeks is what made it almost a dream finish for Tampa Bay. The team looked to be playing its best ball at the right time, but those final two games were clunkers — even the season-closing 9-0 win at Carolina.

Still, the Bucs won five of their last six games to close the season. That impressive stretch started with Todd Bowles and the Bucs’ leaders stressing the importance of taking a playoff mentality into the final month of the year. It’s cliche, but it’s true: Tampa Bay has essentially been playing playoff games for the last six weeks because of its poor 1-6 stretch in the middle of the season.

The Eagles’ finish to the year was the exact opposite of the Bucs’. Once 10-1, Philadelphia was the favorite to win the NFC East and even held the No. 1 seed in the NFC. But from there, Nick Sirianni’s team lost five of its last six games. That meant ending the season at 11-6, which was only good enough for the first Wild Card spot.

Not only did Philly lose five of its last six, but it looked like a team on a downward spiral. After giving up 42 and 33 points in back-to-back losses to start December, Sirianni ultimately changed defensive play-callers. That led to very minimal improvement.

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and RB D’Andre Swift – Photo by: USA Today

What followed was a 20-17 loss to Drew Lock and the Seahawks and while the Eagles stopped the bleeding for one week after that by beating the Giants 33-25, they ended the season on a down note. They lost 35-31 at home to the Cardinals in Week 17 before finishing the year with a 27-10 loss to the Giants.

The Eagles are still a talented team, but they’re going in the wrong direction at the wrong time. There’s some public heat from the Philadelphia fan base on Sirianni and things are in disarray. It doesn’t help that the Eagles are heading into the Monday very banged up, but there’s certainly a chance this is a team that can flip the switch now that the playoffs have arrived.

Here’s how the Bucs and Eagles stack up heading into the playoffs:

Bucs Offense: 20th in scoring offense (20.5 PPG), 23rd in total offense (313.0 yards per game), 17th in passing offense (224.2 yards per game), 32nd in rushing offense (88.8 yards per game)

Eagles Offense: 7th in scoring offense (25.5 PPG), 8th in total offense (354.4 yards per game), 16th in passing offense (225.5 yards per game), 8th in rushing offense (128.8 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: T-6th in scoring defense (19.1 points allowed per game), 23rd in total defense (344.2 yards allowed per game), 29th in passing defense (248.9 yards allowed per game), 5th in rushing defense (95.3 yards allowed per game)

Eagles Defense: 30th in scoring defense (25.2 points allowed per game), 26th in total defense (356.1 yards allowed per game), 31st in passing defense (252.7 yards allowed per game), 10th in rushing defense (103.4 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday night, the Eagles were three-point road favorites, with the Over/Under set at 44 points (per MyBookie.ag).

What Might Decide This Bucs-Eagles Matchup?

Bucs NT Vita Vea and Eagles C Jason Kelce – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The key to this game will almost certainly be the trenches. As shaky as the Eagles have been lately, they’re still impressive on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Their offensive line features three Pro Bowl selections in center Jason Kelce, guard Landon Dickerson and tackle Lane Johnson. Jordan Mailata and Cam Jurgens are phenomenal in their own right, and the unit as a whole is bound to test the Bucs’ defensive front.

Last time these two teams met, the Tampa Bay pass rush struggled. Pass protection from the Eagles was outstanding, and it made life easier for Jalen Hurts. Not to mention, this group imposed its will on the Bucs in the run game. D’Andre Swift ran 16 times for 130 yards in the game and Philadelphia dominated time of possession, holding the ball for 38:55 out of 60 minutes.

What could make things different this time around is the fact that the Bucs will have their two talented rookies fully integrated into their defensive front. Calijah Kancey missed the Week 3 game with an injury, while leading sacker Yaya Diaby only played 25 snaps, 31% of the defense’s total snaps. The added firepower from the two young rookies can only help Vita Vea, plus Todd Bowles absolutely loves to blitz Hurts so there’s no doubt that Lavonte David, Devin White and Antoine Winfield Jr. will be asked to generate some pass rush as well.

The other battle in the trenches will feature the Bucs’ offensive line against the Eagles’ star-studded front seven. This year’s Philadelphia front hasn’t put up the same kind of numbers it was putting up last year, but it can still get after the quarterback. Haason Reddick (11 sacks) leads the way, but the Eagles are getting contributions from Josh Sweat (6.5 sacks), rookie Jalen Carter (six sacks), Fletcher Cox (five sacks) and Brandon Graham (three sacks). Jordan Davis is another force on the interior who could give Bucs center Robert Hainsey some trouble.

Bucs RG Cody Mauch and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For Hainsey, Aaron Stinnie, Cody Mauch, Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke, protecting Baker Mayfield will be of the utmost importance, especially given Mayfield’s injury status. He’s dealing with rib and ankle injuries and is a longshot to be 100% by Monday, so he’ll need time to throw and a clean pocket in order to limit the need for him to move around too much on that ankle. Getting Rachaad White going in the run game would help, but Tampa Bay’s offensive line will need to make a big leap from the last matchup. In Week 3, the Bucs ran for just 41 yards on 17 carries (2.4 avg.)

Injuries will be the other big key for both teams come Monday. Mayfield is the big one to watch for Tampa Bay throughout the week, but Philadelphia is a banged-up team as a whole. Hurts (finger), Jurgens (eye) wide receiver A.J. Brown (knee) and safety Reed Blankenship (groin) all left the Eagles’ Week 18 game with injuries, and rookie safety Sydney Brown tore his ACL and will obviously be out for months. Wide receiver Devonta Smith (ankle) also missed the team’s season finale, adding another injury to monitor throughout the week.

Key Players to Watch

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

A big game from Rachaad White would go a long way for the Bucs in this one. He was limited to 38 yards on 14 carries (2.7 avg.) and three catches for 24 yards against the Eagles back in Week 3, but he came on really strong throughout the month of December. He’s a true dual threat type of running back and if he can find space in the Eagles defense, it could help Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and the Tampa Bay passing game open things up and put some stress on Philadelphia’s struggling pass defense. White finished the season just shy of 1,000 yards rushing, but still put up 1,539 yards from scrimmage on the year.

Until further notice, the key player for the Buccaneer defense is safety Antoine Winfield Jr. The biggest Pro Bowl snub of the year, Winfield seems to make a game-changing play or two every single week. Whether it’s flying in on a blitz and sacking Jalen Hurts (maybe knocking the ball loose in the process) or picking Hurts off, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see the fourth-year safety impact Monday night’s game.

As many problems as A.J. Brown caused in Week 3, D’Andre Swift was the key to Philadelphia controlling that game. He averaged 8.1 yards per carry, carving right through the Bucs defense whenever he got the ball. He put up 130 yards on 16 carries and, it’s worth saying again, the Eagles had a time of possession advantage of almost 18 minutes in that game. If he gets going and the Tampa Bay front can’t show any signs of resistance, Philly will be able to do what it wants and impose its will on Tampa Bay for the second time in four months.

Eagles DT Jalen Carter, OLB Haason Reddick and DE Josh Sweat – Photo by: USA Today

The Philadelphia defensive front is still formidable, and rookie Jalen Carter has really proven to be an absolute steal for the Eagles this year. He fell all the way to No. 9 in the 2023 Draft and there was a lot of “How could the league let Philly land him?” at the time. The former Georgia Bulldog has six sacks, eight tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery this year and could prove to be a problem for Robert Hainsey, Aaron Stinnie and Cody Mauch on the interior of the line.

Bucs vs. Eagles Game Information

When: Monday, January 15
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN/ABC – Joe Buck (Play by Play), Troy Aikman (Analyst), Laura Rutledge & Lisa Salters (Reporters)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martin Gramática (Color)