We are now three preseason games into Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales’ tenure. With all of the excitement surrounding the transparent communication as well as his philosophical tenants I thought it would be a good time to check back in on where the rubber hits the road with Canales.

We now have 133 play calls on first or second down as a sample size to start to determine what his actual play-calling will look like as the regular season dawns. Will the Bucs offense become extremely run-heavy? How much play-action can Bucs fans expect?

Bucs Run/Pass Ratio

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles, OC Dave Canales and WRs coach Brad Idzik – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Head coach Todd Bowles may have lost the battle with former offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich over total volume of run plays being called, but it appears he may have won the war. Leftwich is gone and the Bucs are run heavy under Canales. Now whether this newfound affinity for running early is by Bowles’ edict or not, I truly don’t know. But I think it’s safe to say he has a big influence on this particular strategic decision.

Over the entire Bucs preseason Canales called 71 runs on first or second down to just 62 passes. If this trend holds true throughout the regular season the Bucs would be a good bet to rank Top 3 in the NFL in early-down run rate. Last year only six teams ran more than they passed on early downs in neutral situations per rbdsm.com.

Personnel Usage

On early downs under Byron Leftwich the Bucs were in 11 personnel (one tight end, one running back, three wide receivers) about 2/3 of the time. They ran 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) less than a quarter of the time.

Now, under Dave Canales we are starting to see a seismic shift in those rates. The Bucs ran 11 personnel less than half of their early down snaps over the past three games (49.6%) while their 12 personnel rate more almost doubled to 44.4%. This shift jives with the change in run/pass rate as the extra tight theoretically gives the offense a better blocker on the field to help make the run game more successful.

With a young and unproven tight end room – the room has played just 1,083 offensive snaps with just 49 catches for their combined careers – the Bucs’ coaching staff is showing a lot of faith to be comfortable putting multiple players from the group on the field almost half the time.

Under Center vs. Shotgun

In Week 1 of the preseason the Bucs went under center on early downs 83% of the time. The following week against the Jets that rate went down to 75%. In Week 3 it seems Dave Canales continued to evolve the offense. Tampa Bay’s under center rate continued to decline all the way to 43%. That brought the total preseason rate to 65% under center. It will be fascinating to see how often the Bucs are in shotgun or under center at the conclusion of Canales’ first year in Tampa Bay.

Play Action

If the difference in run-pass rate looked stark, I’m going to need you to sit down for this next one…

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Of the 62 first and second pass plays Dave Canales called, a full 44 have been of the play-action variety. That is 71%! And the play-action pass plays flat-out worked.

Combining all of the play-action work all three Bucs quarterbacks have produced one gets a cumulative line of 28-of-40 passing for 307 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions per Pro Football Focus. That averages out to 7.7 yards per attempt with a combined completion percentage of 70% and no turnovers.

That will do quite well this year in Tampa Bay.

Expect the Bucs to finish in the Top 5 in play-action passes this season – if the team doesn’t end up leading the league in that category outright. It’s something Baker Mayfield does well and Dave Canales knows it.

Bonus Stat – Gap vs. Zone Runs

I haven’t tracked this manually game-by-game, but thankfully PFF has a running tally. This preseason Dave Canales has called 42 zone runs to just 35 gap plays. That’s a zone rate of 55%. That doesn’t feel that high until you look at last year’s rate.

Byron Leftwich’s duo-heavy scheme had a zone rate of just 43% over 237 calls. Add in that last year’s run game was primarily inside zone when running zone vs. this year’s mid/wide/outside zone calls and you see a much different product on the field that is yielding positive results comparatively.

The Bucs offense will be vastly different under Canales in 2023 – from personnel usage, to the mid-zone running scheme to the frequency of play-action calls. But what really matters is point production. Tampa Bay must average more than the paltry 18 points per game the offense produced last year if the team hopes to make the playoffs for a fourth straight season – and for the first time since Tom Brady’s retirement.