Heading into the second weekend of December, the Bucs are still clinging to their hopes of three-peating as NFC South champions. Those hopes will either intensify or disappear in Week 14 as they take on the division-leading Falcons in Atlanta.

At 6-6, the Falcons currently lead the NFC South by one game, with the Bucs and Saints tied for second place at 5-7. Atlanta won the previous meeting over Tampa Bay and has a 3-0 record within the division.

A win for Arthur Smith’s team would mean a two-game lead over the Bucs, a season sweep over them and a 4-0 divisional record. They’d be in firm control of the race, as it would take a big collapse over the final four weeks for the door to be opened back up to anyone else.

If the Bucs find a way to win, they’ll take over first place in the division with four games to go. Both teams would be 6-7 with 3-1 records in NFC South play, and with the split between the two teams, it would go down to a tiebreaker of record against common opponents. Tampa Bay currently has the advantage, so Todd Bowles’ squad would carry the NFC South lead into a Week 15 game in Green Bay.

The Last Time…

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts and Bucs ILB Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs and Falcons met back in Week 7, with the Falcons escaping Raymond James Stadium with a 16-13 win. It wasn’t a great day for the Tampa Bay offense, but Desmond Ridder fumbled three times in the red zone to keep the game close.

Baker Mayfield ultimately led the offense on a game-tying field goal drive with 45 seconds to go. It looked like overtime was on the way, but a big catch and run by Atlanta tight end Kyle Pitts set up Younghoe Koo for a game-winning 51-yard field goal as time expired.

At the time, that win gave the Falcons first place in the NFC South as the Bucs suffered the second of what would be four straight losses.

The all-time series between these two teams is an even 30-30. Tampa Bay has a 5-2 advantage since 2020, though Atlanta has won the last two meetings. The Falcons are 15-13 all-time against the Bucs in Atlanta.

How The Bucs And Falcons Are Trending

The Bucs are coming off of a sloppy 21-18 win over the 1-win Panthers at a rain-soaked Raymond James Stadium in Week 13. Tampa Bay got a huge day from Mike Evans, who caught seven passes for 162 yards and a touchdown as he went over 1,000 receiving yards for a 10th straight season. Antoine Winfield Jr. was the star for the defense, tallying a sack and an interception on his way to NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The win over Carolina, while not impressive, at least kept the Bucs from losing a third straight game. The victory also stopped a slide of six losses in seven games and kept Tampa Bay alive in the divisional race.

This game against the Falcons is essentially do or die for the Bucs. A loss and they’re 5-8 with no more playoff hopes. But even as much as it would mean to get a win and take over the division lead, Tampa Bay would still have a tough path to holding onto it over the final four weeks with games at Green Bay (6-6), home against Jacksonville (8-4) and home against New Orleans before a season finale at Carolina.

The Falcons maintained their one-game lead over the Bucs in Week 13 with a 13-8 win over the Jets. That was also an unimpressive win in its own right, with only one touchdown between the two teams and Atlanta getting outgained 259-194. Despite that, though, Arthur Smith and his team got back to .500.

Since beating Tampa Bay in Week 7, the Falcons have gone to Taylor Heinicke and back to Desmond Ridder. They lost three straight after that win at Raymond James Stadium, falling to the Titans, Vikings and Cardinals. But since then, they’ve won back-to-back games over the Saints and Jets.

After this pivotal game on Sunday, Atlanta has a road game at Carolina (1-11), a home game against Indianapolis (7-5) and road games at Chicago (4-8) and New Orleans (5-7) to end the season.

Here’s how the Bucs and Falcons stack up heading into Week 14:

Bucs Offense: 23rd in scoring offense (19.4 PPG), 23rd in total offense (305.6 yards per game), 19th in passing offense (220.4 yards per game), 30th in rushing offense (85.2 yards per game)

Falcons Offense: 24th in scoring offense (18.8 PPG), 18th in total offense (328.6 yards per game), 22nd in passing offense (193.4 yards per game), 6th in rushing offense (135.2 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: T-10th in scoring defense (20.4 points allowed per game), 27th in total defense (356.9 yards allowed per game), 28th in passing defense (257.9 yards allowed per game), 10th in rushing defense (99.0 yards allowed per game)

Falcons Defense: 7th in scoring defense (20.0 points allowed per game), 10th in total defense (315.9 yards allowed per game), 11th in passing defense (208.1 yards allowed per game), 15th in rushing defense (107.8 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday night, the Falcons were a 1.5-point favorite, with an Over/Under set at 39.5 points (per mybookie.ag).

What Might Decide This Bucs-Falcons Matchup?

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The run game could be an important key for Tampa Bay against Atlanta this time around. Back in the Week 7 loss, the Bucs couldn’t get anything going on the ground. They ran 20 times for 73 yards, with Baker Mayfield being their most effective runner.

The quarterback ran three times for 32 yards, a 10.7-yard average. Meanwhile, Rachaad White ran 13 times for just 34 yards (2.6 avg.) while Ke’Shawn Vaughn ran four times for seven yards (1.8 avg.). If Dave Canales‘ offense can run the ball more effectively against the Falcons on Sunday, the extra balance could make a big difference.

Since that Week 7 loss, the Bucs’ rushing attack has made some strides. White has been running better — especially as of late. He ran for 100 yards at Indianapolis two weeks ago before going for 84 yards on 20 carries (4.2 avg.) this past Sunday. Beyond the run game itself, the quick passing game — almost working as an extension of the run game — has seen White make a difference as well.

The Bucs’ run blocking has also been better. Aaron Stinnie is in at left guard, a change from the last meeting between the two teams as back then, it was Matt Feiler. Stinnie’s run blocking grade (per PFF) is a solid 60.2, while Feiler’s is eight points lower at 52.2.

Running the ball well should take some of the pressure off Mike Evans, who single-handedly carried the Bucs to a win in Week 13. If White gets it going both as a runner and as a pass-catcher, it would give the offense something it didn’t have last time around against Atlanta. That would help Mayfield, Evans, Godwin and the rest of the cast in a big way.

The run game is the strength of Atlanta’s offense behind rookie Bijan Robinson and 2022 1,000-yard rusher Tyler Allgeier. Robinson making any sort of impact in Week 14 would give the Falcons a boost that they didn’t have against the Bucs during the last meeting. In that game, Robinson was sick and only had one carry for three yards. The former Texas Longhorn averaged more than four yards per carry in each of the four games after that while scoring touchdowns in three of them. It was only this past game against the Jets where his dipped to the tune of just 2.9 yards per carry.

Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. and Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo by: USA Today

Where the real key for the Atlanta offense lies is with quarterback Desmond Ridder and how well he protects the football. Ridder fumbled three times in the red zone against the Bucs last time out, and that came after he had thrown multiple interceptions in two of the three previous games. On the season, he has just eight touchdown passes to eight interceptions.

The other big decider — for both teams — is the red zone. We know what Ridder did in the red zone when the two sides met in Tampa, plus Atlanta is scoring touchdowns on just over 50% of its red zone trips, ranking 22nd in the league. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s defense is fourth in red zone touchdowns allowed, as it’s only giving up touchdowns on 40% of opponents’ red zone trips.

There’s a similar dynamic going the other way. The Bucs settled for field goals on both of their red zone trips in the Week 7 meeting and are scoring touchdowns on just 47% of trips inside the 20, which is tied for 27th in the NFL. At the same time, the Falcons have the top red zone defense in the league, allowing touchdowns on just 37% of opponents’ red zone trips.

This game may very well come down to which offense executes better inside the red area — and which defense steps up to make stops.

Key Players to Watch

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Baker Mayfield badly needs to bring his best to Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday. He struggled for much of the Bucs’ Week 13 win, and it was really Mike Evans who bailed him and the offense out with a big-time performance. How the offense operates in the red zone will ultimately be on his shoulders, and if he can get the team in the end zone instead of settling for field goals, the Bucs will be in good shape.

Dave Canales needs his quarterback to be more of the guy who completed 78.1% of his passes and threw three touchdowns over New Orleans back in Week 4 and less of the guy who has thrown an interception in four straight games.

The reigning NFC Defensive Player of the Week, Antoine Winfield Jr. will need to step up for the Buccaneer defense once again on Sunday. He has been a one-man wrecking crew in several games this season and Tampa Bay may need him to be just that against the Falcons. He has 89 tackles (53 solo), three sacks, three forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries and two interceptions this season, and a big splash play at the right moment could prove to be the difference for the Bucs in this one.

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson – Photo by: USA Today

Bijan Robinson was drafted 8th overall in the 2023 Draft for a reason. He didn’t get to show that reason against the Bucs in Week 7, but he might find himself in position to break out against a team he’ll be seeing twice every year for the next several years. Robinson has 756 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 159 carries, good for 4.8 yards per rush. He also has 35 catches for 266 yards and another three touchdowns.

Arthur Smith will absolutely look to run the ball, even if Tampa Bay’s run defense — led by Vita Vea and Lavonte David up the middle — is still pretty outstanding.

The biggest playmaker the Falcons have on defense is Jessie Bates. The safety leads the team in tackles with 92 (60 solo stops) while tallying seven passes defensed, five interceptions, three forced fumbles and a defensive touchdown. He’s a dangerous player who will be lurking on the back end of the Atlanta defense looking to make a momentum-swinging play. The 26-year-old has interceptions in two straight games, including a 92-yard pick-six in a 24-15 win over the Saints two weeks ago.

Bucs at Falcons Game Information

When: Sunday, December 10
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS– Spero Dedes (Play by Play), Adam Archuleta (Analyst), Aditi Kinkhabwala (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst)