When the Bucs’ 2024 schedule was released, there was understandably some hype around the season opener against No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. There was considerable hype around early-season playoff rematches with the Lions and Eagles, too. But the Bucs’ Week 5 matchup with the Falcons on Thursday Night Football in Atlanta was also up there in terms of offseason chatter.

After all, Tampa Bay has reigned over the NFC South in each of the last three years and is looking to four-peat as division champions in 2024. Meanwhile, Atlanta went out and made a splash in free agency by signing quarterback Kirk Cousins. And given how talented their roster already was and considering that quarterback was one of their big deficiencies, the Falcons were quickly crowned as the new NFC South favorites.

The Bucs would obviously feel otherwise. They had a big offseason themselves, re-signing their own in an attempt to run it back, win the division again and go even further in the playoffs.

All of that “who is the favorite?” talk has led to this Week 5 matchup in primetime, which sees the 3-1 Bucs head into Mercedes-Benz Stadium looking to create some separation from the 2-2 Falcons.

The Last Time…

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay and Atlanta have split their meetings over the last two seasons. In 2023, the Falcons won the first game at Raymond James Stadium on a walkoff field goal by Younghoe Koo. But the Bucs came back in the most recent matchup between the two teams, beating the Falcons 29-25 in Atlanta on a late touchdown pass from Baker Mayfield to Cade Otton.

That Week 14 contest last December was a wild one, as a 10-10 game early in the second quarter soon turned into a 19-10 Buccaneer lead thanks to a Pat O’Connor safety and a 31-yard touchdown pass from Mayfield to Rachaad White.

But Atlanta would fight back, eventually taking a 25-22 lead with 3:23 to go on a Desmond Ridder touchdown run. But then Mayfield and the offense, which had been inconsistent throughout the day, went to work and put together a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown drive. One last heave from Ridder may have been hauled in by Drake London as time expired, but Tampa Bay stopped him at the 3-yard line to escape with the win.

CADE OTTON 🤯

📺: #TBvsATL on CBS pic.twitter.com/8MOW0tazGC

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 10, 2023

In the all-time series, the Bucs hold a 31-30 advantage over the Falcons. Tampa Bay has won six of the last eight meetings between the two sides.

How The Bucs And Falcons Are Trending

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and LT Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: USA Today

Outside of a disastrous Week 3 loss to the Broncos, the Bucs have started their 2024 campaign on the right note. They beat the Commanders 37-20 in Week 1, exacted some revenge with a 20-16 win at the Lions in Week 2 and bounced back from that Week 3 loss with a 33-16 domination of the Eagles in Week 4.

The offense has largely been clicking under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, with the unit helped by hot starts from Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin. Mayfield has completed 70.5% of his passes so far this season for 984 yards and eight touchdowns to two interceptions. Meanwhile, Godwin is Tampa Bay’s leading receiver right now with 27 catches for 322 yards (11.9 avg.) and three touchdowns.

The Bucs defense has allowed just 19.5 points per game so far this season despite a slow start for its pass rush and some uncharacteristic struggles against the run. That points per game average would be even lower if not for a garbage-time touchdown from Washington in Week 1, too. Zyon McCollum has played some outstanding football, while Lavonte David looked like his vintage self with two sacks and a forced fumble in this past Sunday’s win over the Eagles. The pieces are there for Todd Bowles’ defense to get even better as it gets healthier.

Of course, the Bucs have gotten out to this 3-1 start while dealing with injuries to some key players. Defensive tackle Calijah Kancey has yet to play this season, while right tackle Luke Goedeke and 2023 All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. haven’t played since Week 1. The Bucs were also without nose tackle Vita Vea for a game and a half, though he returned in Week 4 and played well while notching his first sack of the season.

Falcons HC Raheem Morris – Photo by: USA Today

On the Falcons’ side of things, they’ve gotten to an uneven start so far this season, and that has led to an even 2-2 record through four games. After hiring former Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris to lead the way this offseason and signing Kirk Cousins to lead the offense, Atlanta fell flat in Week 1, losing 18-10 to the Steelers at home.

The Falcons then bounced back in Week 2, using an improbable late-game comeback to beat the Eagles in Philadelphia. But then, despite playing well enough to beat the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs at home in Week 3, they lost that game and dropped to 1-2.

Most recently, Atlanta escaped its Week 4 trip to New Orleans with another improbable win. The Falcons beat the Saints 26-24 despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. A blocked punt and fumble recovery in the end zone, a pick-six and four Younghoe Koo field goals — including a 58-yarder with two seconds to go — bailed out Cousins and the offense in that rivalry matchup.

The Falcons are dealing with some key injuries right now, too, as center Drew Dalman is on injured reserve and right tackle Kaleb McGary could miss another game on Thursday. Linebackers Nate Landman and Milo Eifler are on injured reserve, too, plus leading tackler Troy Andersen left Sunday’s win over the Saints with a knee injury.

Here’s how the Bucs and Falcons stack up heading into Week 5:

Bucs Offense: T-11th in scoring offense (24.3 PPG), 16th in total offense (319.0 yards per game), 9th in passing offense (223.0 yards per game), 25th in rushing offense (96.0 yards per game)

Falcons Offense: T-22nd in scoring offense (18.8 PPG), 19th in total offense (309.3 yards per game), 17th in passing offense (206.5 yards per game), 22nd in rushing offense (102.8 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 9th in scoring defense (19.5 points allowed per game), 18th in total defense (335.3 yards allowed per game), 16th in passing defense (203.8 yards allowed per game), 22nd in rushing defense (131.5 yards allowed per game)

Falcons Defense: T-14th in scoring defense (21.3 points allowed per game), 19th in total defense (336.5 yards allowed per game), 13th in passing defense (191.0 yards allowed per game), 25th in rushing defense (145.5 yards allowed per game)

As of Tuesday night, the Falcons are 1-point home favorites, with the Over/Under set at 43.5 points (per BetUS).

What Might Decide This Bucs-Falcons Matchup?

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For the Bucs offense, playing another clean game like it did in Week 4 could go a long way in taking them to a road victory in Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off a win over the Saints in which they used a pick-six and a blocked punt/fumble recovery to overcome a lack of scoring on offense. But if Baker Mayfield can get into a rhythm early and play turnover-free football, it could put Tampa Bay in position to run up something like 24-31 points in primetime.

A balanced attack with some help from Rachaad White and Bucky Irving would be huge, too. The Falcons run defense has been pretty porous, as Raheem Morris‘ defense is allowing 145.5 yards per game on the ground. Injuries at linebacker haven’t helped, as the Steelers ran for 137 yards on them, while Saquon Barkley and the Eagles put up 186 yards on the ground. The Chiefs ran for 128, and then the Saints put up 131 last week. The Bucs have been better on the ground this year, but a big breakout would make a massive difference on Thursday night. It would certainly make life easier for Mayfield.

On the defensive side for Tampa Bay, Todd Bowles‘ group will have to slow down the two-headed monster in the Atlanta backfield. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier form one of the better 1-2 punches in the league, and the Bucs have been uncharacteristically bad against the run so far this year. It hasn’t been a complete detriment, to be fair. A lot of the 131.5 rushing yards allowed per game (which ranks them 22nd) can be credited to quarterbacks (Jayden Daniels with 88 yards and Bo Nix with 47), but the run-stopping hasn’t been up to the levels we got used to seeing from Bowles defenses in past years.

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins Photo by: USA Today

On the Falcons’ side, better play from Kirk Cousins would help. After leaving Minnesota to sign a four-year, $180 million with Atlanta this offseason, Cousins hasn’t quite hit the ground running. He’s 36 years old and one year removed from a torn Achilles, and thus far, he’s completed 64.7% of his passes for 864 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions in four games. He’s also fumbled four times, though he hasn’t been credited with losing one yet. He has solid weapons in Drake London and Kyle Pitts, but the passing game hasn’t taken off yet for the Falcons.

There’s been a lack of consistency on the ground for Atlanta as well. As good as both Robinson and Allgeier are, they’ve yet to reach the levels they’re capable of reaching. At times, it’s looked like former head coach Arthur Smith never left. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, formerly with the Rams, has to do more to get these two going. Robinson is averaging a healthy 4.1 yards per carry, while Allgeier has an even better average of 6.1. But these two backs combined for just 15 carries last week, while Cousins threw the ball 35 times. This wasn’t a game the Falcons were really trailing in either, which is baffling.

Defensively, the Falcons have to do a better job at getting after the quarterback. They have just four sacks in four games, with Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett notching 1.5 each and cornerback Dee Alford picking up one. When the Bucs have struggled the most on offense this season, Baker Mayfield has been made to look uncomfortable. Part of it has been missing right tackle Luke Goedeke, but Mayfield was sacked five times against Detroit and seven times against Denver — the two games in which he struggled the most. If Atlanta lets him stay comfortable, it could be another big scoring night for Tampa Bay.

Key Players To Watch

Bucs WR Mike Evans and Falcons CB AJ Terrell – Photo by: USA Today

As important as it’ll be for the Bucs to run the ball well, they often go as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin go. The focus here is particularly on Evans, who has historically produced at a high level against the Falcons. A.J. Terrell did a good job against him when they matched up in Week 14 last year, but Evans has had his own success against Terrell in the past as well. Evans going off for his first 100-yard game of the season would help on Thursday night.

Yaya Diaby has quietly put together a great start to the season, even if it took him until Week 4 to pick up his first sack of the season. He is tied for fifth in the league with 21 pressures through four games, and his 28% pass rush win rate (per PFF) is the fourth-best among edge rushers across the league. If Diaby can get to the quarterback regularly in Atlanta and create some disruption, it could make for another rough offensive performance for the home team.

Falcons FS Jessie Bates III – Photo by: USA Today

The Falcons have to find a way to get Bijan Robinson going on the ground. His 4.1 yards per carry average isn’t bad by any stretch, but he’s not impacting games for the Atlanta offense the way he should be. He’s averaging only 13.75 carries per game so far, and he had just seven carries for 28 yards last week. He is, however, getting it done through the air, so at least Atlanta is getting him the ball outside of his limited carries. He has 15 catches on 16 targets for 135 yards (9.0 avg.) this year. Assuming he overcomes the hamstring injury he’s dealing with early this week, he may be a major factor on Thursday night.

Jessie Bates III is up there with Antoine Winfield Jr. in the “elite” category among safeties. He’s the best player on the Atlanta defense, and he’s off to a strong start again this year with 29 tackles (20 solo), a tackle for loss, an interception and three passes defensed through four games. He’s coming off a six-interception season and is a big-time playmaker. If he gets a takeaway on Thursday night, it’s bound to be a momentum-shifter.

Bucs at Falcons Game Information

When: Thursday, October 3
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Prime Video – Al Michaels (Play by Play), Kirk Herbstreit (Analyst), Kaylee Hartung (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst), Santiago Gramática (Reporter)