With their 20-6 loss to the Lions in the rearview mirror, the Bucs are set for another home game in Week 7. It’s another big one, as 3-2 Tampa Bay’s lead in the NFC South is on the line against the 3-3 Atlanta Falcons.

This is a pivotal game for Todd Bowles and the Bucs, as there are a few different ways their place atop the division could go by the end of Sunday night. With a win, Tampa Bay will move to 1.5 games ahead of Atlanta and improve to 2-0 in divisional play on the year. New Orleans (3-3) plays Thursday night against Jacksonville, so a win in that game would keep the Saints in second place by a half-game in this scenario. Obviously, a Saints loss to the Jaguars would have the Bucs up by 1.5 games on them both them and the Falcons.

If the Bucs lose, the Falcons move ahead of them in the division through seven weeks of the season. And whether the Saints are tied for the lead with the Falcons depends on the outcome of their game.

So, while this game doesn’t decide anything concrete in the NFC South given how early in the season it is, a victory could go a long way toward the red, white and pewter’s quest for a three-peat as division champions.

The Last Time…

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Falcons DC Dean Pees – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay and Atlanta last met in Week 18 of the 2022 season, with the Falcons winning, 30-17, after a second-half comeback against a team full of backups. The Bucs had already clinched the division the week before and after Tom Brady started the game and Blaine Gabbert soon relieved him, Kyle Trask came in during the third quarter as the team’s third quarterback of the day.

The loss dropped the Bucs to 8-9 to close out the regular season, while the Falcons finished 7-10.

The two teams split last year, with the Bucs winning the first meeting at home in Week 5 by a score of 21-15. Overall, Tampa Bay is 5-1 against Atlanta over the last three years and holds a 30-29 edge in the all-time series heading into Sunday.

How The Bucs And Falcons Are Trending

The Bucs are off to a decent 3-2 start to the year, having beaten the Vikings, Bears and Saints while losing to the Eagles and Lions. They’re coming off of an ugly 20-6 home loss to the Lions, but maintained the top spot in the NFC South due to the rest of the division’s teams losing in Week 6.

Tampa Bay is in the midst of a difficult stretch of its schedule, having just played Detroit before having to play 3-3 Atlanta and 4-2 Buffalo within the span of five days. From there, Todd Bowles’ team will play at Houston, home against Tennessee, at San Francisco and home against Indianapolis before December begins.

The Falcons are off to a similarly solid start, first beating the Panthers and Packers before losing to the Lions and Jaguars. They then split their next two, beating the Texans before losing last week at home to the Commanders.

Atlanta’s pre-December schedule is much lighter than Tampa Bay’s, as Arthur Smith’s squad will follow Sunday’s game with contests at Tennessee, home against Minnesota and at Arizona before hitting the bye week. Out of the bye is what could be a crucial Thanksgiving Weekend matchup at home against New Orleans.

This is how the two teams stack up heading into Week 7:

Bucs Offense: 25th in scoring offense (18.0 PPG), 25th in yards per game (291.4), 17th in passing offense (212.6 yards per game), 29th in rush offense (78.8 yards per game)

Falcons Offense: 29th in scoring offense (16.5 PPG), 16th in yards per game (331.0), 18th in passing offense (212.0 yards per game), 10th in rush offense (119.0 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 8th in scoring defense (17.6 PPG), 14th in yards allowed per game (330.8), 26th in passing defense (247.0 yards allowed per game), 7th in rush defense (83.8 yards allowed per game)

Falcons Defense: 14th in scoring defense (20.0 PPG), 4th in yards allowed per game (278.2), 4th in passing defense (179.2 yards allowed per game), 11th in rush defense (99.0 yards allowed per game)

The Bucs are currently 2.5-point favorites (per MyBookie.ag) with the Over/Under set at 37 points.

What Might Decide This Bucs-Falcons Matchup?

Bucs RB Rachaad White and Falcons DT Grady Jarrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For the Bucs, it’ll be all about the run game on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they need to run it better. Rachaad White has been inconsistent at best so far this season, and he really has to get it going if he’s ever going to establish himself as a capable RB1.

Meanwhile, Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Sean Tucker have both looked like below-average ball carriers. Chase Edmonds, who is currently injured, has looked like the quickest and most effective back so far this season. And that’s only been in limited snaps.

Tampa Bay’s run blocking hasn’t helped, but everything needs to come together and the run game needs to be better. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales will stay committed to it, and he really needs that aspect of his offense to figure things out — fast. The Falcons are giving up 99.0 rushing yards per game, which ranks them 11th in the league.

Even a 99-yard rushing performance would be an improvement over the Bucs’ season average of 78.8. Finding some balance and helping out Baker Mayfield and the passing game is going to be key on Sunday.

Defensively, Tampa Bay simply needs to keep stopping the run the way it has in every game this season outside of the loss to Philadelphia. Todd Bowles’ defense is close to being back where it wants to be in terms of run defense, only allowing 83.8 rushing yards per game to rank seventh in the NFL. Atlanta has a fearsome running back duo and Arthur Smith loves to run the ball. So the Bucs will need a similar performance to the one they had against the Lions last week and force the Falcons into third-and-long and obvious passing situations.

Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo by: USA Today

As for the Falcons, as much as they’ll want to run the ball, they’ll need quarterback Desmond Ridder to be better. He has six touchdowns and six interceptions this year and has taken 19 sacks in six games. He has especially struggled over the last four weeks, throwing four touchdowns to five interceptions while being sacked 14 times.

At his best, Ridder manages the game well and facilitates without turning the ball over. That’s what he did at Cincinnati and it’s what he has done in his better games with the Falcons so far. But he’s been shaky as of late and with Atlanta largely playing well otherwise, there has to be some pressure on Ridder to get back on track before his coaching staff thinks too hard about a quarterback change and replaces him with Taylor Heinicke.

Defensively, the Falcons have been impressive. They rank fourth against the pass and 11th against the run while allowing 20 points per game, which is more of a middle-of-the pack average that’s good for 14th. Where Atlanta needs more on that side of the ball is in the pass rush department.

Eight different players do have sacks this season, but a more consistent rush on Sunday could help create turnovers. When Tampa Bay wins the turnover battle this season, it’s 3-0. When it doesn’t, it’s 0-2. That’s the key to Atlanta’s defense helping the team steal a road victory and the top spot in the division.

Key Players to Watch

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

Chris Godwin has had a ton of success against the Falcons over the years, and his numbers in his last nine games against them jump off the page. In his last nine games against Atlanta, he has 56 catches for 844 yards and nine touchdowns. That’s good for an average of six catches, 93.8 yards and a touchdown per game, and he’ll need to be heavily involved in Tampa Bay’s offense again this Sunday as it looks to rebound from an awful showing against Detroit in Week 6.

There were few bright spots for the Bucs in their loss to the Lions, but rookie Calijah Kancey was among the brightest. Returning to the field for the first time since being limited to 11 snaps in Week 1, the 2023 first-round pick was disruptive against Detroit. He notched his first career sack late in the game in addition to tallying six quarterback pressures and posting a 17.9% pass rush win rate.

Kancey will need to continue winning as a pass rusher against Desmond Ridder and the Atlanta offense, but with Arthur Smith’s commitment to running the ball, Kancey will need to be strong against the run as well.

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson – Photo by: USA Today

This will be the first of many meetings between rookie running back Bijan Robinson and the Buccaneer defense. The No. 8 pick in this year’s draft, the former Texas Longhorns star has come as advertised so far, rushing for 401 yards on 80 carries (5.0 avg.) and catching 26 passes for 189 yards and two touchdowns (7.3 avg.). The Bucs will have to stop Robinson and running mate Tyler Allgeier — a 1,000-yard rusher as a rookie last season — the way they held the Lions’ rushing attack in check last week. Atlanta will commit to the run game, so Tampa Bay has to answer that and make the struggling Ridder win the game.

The Falcons have been playing good defense, and Jessie Bates III has been at the center of a lot of it. He has 39 tackles (24 solo) to tie for the team lead so far, and he’s making plays at a crazy clip with four passes defensed, three interceptions and two forced fumbles in just six games. Tampa Bay can’t afford to turn the ball over and expect to win games, as there’s little margin for error with this squad. Making sure Bates doesn’t affect the game in a big way will be key.

Bucs vs. Falcons Game Information

When: Sunday, Oct. 22
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX – Chris Myers (Play by Play), Mark Schlereth (Analyst), Kristina Pink (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst)