Football is a cruel game, and there have been countless examples over the years as to why. But the latest is the fact that after losing wide receivers Mike Evans (for a few weeks at least) and Chris Godwin (for the season) in a 41-31 loss on Monday night, the Bucs face a short week and are back home on Sunday to host the Falcons in their biggest game of the season thus far.

Tampa Bay and Atlanta both come into Week 8 at 4-3, though Atlanta leads the NFC South via tiebreaker after winning the previous meeting between the two teams in Week 5. The Bucs badly need to overcome some serious adversity and win this game, as the Falcons completing a season series sweep over them would be extremely damaging to any hopes of four-peating as division champions. As close as the race has been in recent years, splitting the two games with Atlanta rather than dropping both is paramount for Todd Bowles’ team.

There’s some added flair to this game as well, as the Bucs will be in their creamsicle throwback uniforms and Raymond James Stadium – as well as the Buccaneer fans – will be decked out in orange and white as the clock is turned back. Tampa Bay will be looking to snap its four-game losing streak in throwback games, one that spans between 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2023.

The Last Time…

Falcons WR KhaDarel Hodge – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

This is the second meeting of October between the Bucs and Falcons. It was a weird scheduling move by the NFL to place such crucial divisional games between the two sides just 24 days apart, especially considering the general consensus that these two teams would be battling for the NFC South title this year.

The first meeting – which came on Thursday Night Football in Week 5 – was a thriller. The Bucs offense came out firing, but the Falcons hung right with them. Tampa Bay took a 24-17 lead into halftime behind three touchdown passes from Baker Mayfield, but Atlanta evened things up at 27-27 early in the fourth quarter. A 53-yard field goal by Chase McLaughlin, a blocked Younghoe Koo field goal and a late interception by Lavonte David seemed like it was going to seal the deal for the Bucs, but the Falcons didn’t go away.

Tampa Bay’s offense failed to kill the clock, and Atlanta got the ball back and drove right down the field. Koo hit a 52-yard field goal as time expired to send the game to overtime, and not long after that, Kirk Cousins found Darnell Mooney for a game-winning 45-yard touchdown. The home team completed the comeback to win 36-30 and take first place in the division.

Cousins threw for a Falcons-record 509 yards and four touchdowns in that game, while Tampa Bay’s offense was limited to six points in the second half. Mayfield never got to touch the ball in overtime, as it took Atlanta just four plays to end the game in overtime.

The all-time series between these two sides is knotted up at 31-31. Tampa Bay has won three of the last four meetings at Raymond James Stadium.

How The Bucs And Falcons Are Trending

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs won back-to-back games to open the 2024 season, but haven’t had the same result (win or loss) in back-to-back games since. After a Week 3 loss to Denver, Tampa Bay beat Philadelphia in Week 4. The team then lost its Week 5 game at Atlanta, only to come back and win at New Orleans in Week 6. But despite going up 10-0 early on the Ravens on Monday Night Football in Week 7, the Bucs couldn’t win two straight and instead lost 41-31 to drop to 4-3 on the year.

The up-and-down nature of the first seven weeks of this season have been one thing for the Bucs, but the injuries have been an entirely different difficulty. Just when it seemed like they were getting healthier with the returns of Luke Goedeke, Calijah Kancey and Antoine Winfield Jr., they placed Jamel Dean and Kameron Johnson on injured reserve prior to Monday night’s game. And then it got a whole lot worse during the game itself.

Mike Evans re-aggravated a hamstring injury and isn’t expected to return until after the bye week, while Tykee Smith suffered a concussion. And the real disaster struck with less than a minute to go in the game when leading receiver Chris Godwin dislocated his ankle. He is now set to miss the rest of the season barring a deep playoff run by the Bucs.

The injuries to Evans and Godwin are a massive blow to a Buccaneer offense that ranks in the top 10 in points per game, yards per game and passing yards per game. Now, Liam Coen will have to rely on Baker Mayfield, veteran Sterling Shepard and a host of young receivers to keep the passing game afloat, at least until Evans can return. What should help Coen is that the Bucs suddenly have the 8th-ranked rushing offense and the trio of Rachaad White, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker is hot right now.

Perhaps what’s even more problematic for the Bucs is the fact that their defense is a problem. While the offense ranks in the top 10 in those categories, the defense is in the bottom half of the league in just about every metric. That’s bad news for Todd Bowles, who calls the defense, especially considering that there doesn’t seem to be any help on the way.

Seahawks LB Boye Mafe and Falcons QB Kirk Cousins Photo by: USA Today

As for the Falcons, they find themselves with the same 4-3 record as the Bucs. After starting 1-2, Raheem Morris’ team won three straight NFC South games against the Saints, Bucs and Panthers before coming back down to earth in Week 7. Kirk Cousins turned the ball over three times as Atlanta lost 34-14 at home to Seattle. But despite that loss, the Dirty Birds come to Raymond James Stadium leading the division via the head-to-head tiebreaker and divisional record.

Cousins and the offense have gotten off to an uneven start to the year. They didn’t light up the scoreboard in Weeks 1 through 4, but then they put up 36 points on Tampa Bay in Week 5 before running up 38 against Carolina the following week. But after scoring just 14 points against Seattle thanks in part to Cousins’ turnover problems, that unit will be looking to get back on track.

Defensively, the Falcons have allowed 20-plus points in six straight games and have given up 30-plus twice in the last three weeks. They rank top-15 against the pass, but they’re 24th against the run. Getting to the quarterback has been a problem for Atlanta, as Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett have 1.5 sacks each while James Smith-Williams, David Onyemata and Dee Alford have one each. And… that’s it. Six sacks in seven games is less than ideal, though five different players in the back seven have an interception on the year.

Here’s how the Bucs and Falcons stack up heading into Week 8:

Bucs Offense: 4th in scoring offense (29.9 PPG), 5th in total offense (383.4 yards per game), 7th in passing offense (248.3 yards per game), 8th in rushing offense (135.1 yards per game)

Falcons Offense: 15th in scoring offense (23.3 PPG), 7th in total offense (370.7 yards per game), 5th in passing offense (251.1 yards per game), 16th in rushing offense (119.6 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 28th in scoring defense (26.0 points allowed per game), 31st in total defense (386.0 yards allowed per game), 29th in passing defense (254.0 yards allowed per game), 19th in rushing defense (132.0 yards allowed per game)

Falcons Defense: 22nd in scoring defense (24.1 points allowed per game), 17th in total defense (336.1 yards allowed per game), 13th in passing defense (199.1 yards allowed per game), 24th in rushing defense (137.0 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday night, the Falcons were 2-point road favorites, with the Over/Under set at 46 (per BetUS).

What Might Decide This Bucs-Falcons Matchup?

Bucs RB Sean Tucker – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For the Bucs offense, there are two things that will decide this matchup on Sunday afternoon. The first is the run game, a term that’s being used loosely here. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missing from the lineup, offensive coordinator Liam Coen will need to lean on his backfield trio of Rachaad White, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker. That means on the ground in the run game, as well is in the passing game via screens and check-downs. If the Bucs get a lot of production out of those three, it can lighten the load on quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield is the other decider in this game for the team in orange and white. He needs to play mistake-free football, something he hasn’t done in the last two games. Without Evans and Godwin to throw to, Mayfield will need to be extra smart about where he’s going with the ball. He’ll need to use his running backs and tight end Cade Otton as an outlet rather than trying to force throws. Relying on college teammate Sterling Shepard may be another key, though Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan have to step up as well.

Interestingly enough (and knock on wood here), it feels like Coen will be able to make it work on offense. No, the Bucs might not score 30+ points like they have been in recent weeks and for much of the season. But he should be able to piece a good game plan together. Perhaps the scarier thing for Tampa Bay is what this defense will be able to do to prevent another record-breaking day from Kirk Cousins. The Atlanta quarterback tore this defense up over the middle of the field in Week 5, and Todd Bowles needs to have answers this time around. And it’s unlikely that those answers should include “throw K.J. Britt out there and pray.”

That’s where it all starts for the Falcons, obviously. If Cousins is able to make easy throws over the middle of the field all day, that’s going to set the visitors on a pretty easy path to a victory and a commanding lead in the NFC South given the fact that they’d be 4-0 in divisional play and have the head-to-head tiebreaker locked up. If Atlanta is able to protect Cousins and he’s able to avoid turning the ball over, it could mean bad things for the Tampa Bay defense as Drake London has eaten them alive in his career (three games of 120+ yards, including Week 5, in five career meetings) and Kyle Pitts just went for 88 yards against Bowles’ group three weeks ago.

Bucs DT Vita Vea and Falcons RB Bijan Robinson – Photo by: USA Today

There’s always the Atlanta rushing attack to contend with, too. It hasn’t quite taken off to the levels you’d expect it to reach considering the 1-2 punch of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, but either of those guys is liable to break out for a big game in any given week. Back in Week 5, Robinson had 61 yards on 12 carries (5.1 avg.) and caught all three of his targets for 16 yards. The Bucs could live with that, but only if they’re able to avoid a passing parade by Cousins.

For the Atlanta defense, it’s likely going to come down to stopping the run. The Falcons are allowing 137 yards per game on the ground and have given up more than 100 in every game this season. That includes 137 and 128 in losses to the Steelers and Chiefs, respectively, as well as 186, 131 and 160 in narrow wins over the Eagles, Saints and Bucs, respectively. In that Week 5 game in Atlanta, Tampa Bay had White run for 72 yards on 10 carries (7.2 avg., long of 56) and Irving go for 44 yards on nine carries (4.9 avg., long of 16). Mayfield added 42 yards on six carries (7.0 avg., long of 18) as well.

The Falcons are coming off a game in which they allowed their season low in rushing yards. The Seahawks went for just 103 yards on the ground, though they still averaged four yards per carry on 26 rushing attempts. Failing to stop the Bucs’ run game, including their pony packages, could allow the home team to control possession, shorten the game and keep Cousins and his offense on the sideline.

Key Players To Watch

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

As much as the Bucs backfield as a whole needs to contribute to the offense on Sunday, the spotlight here is on Rachaad White. The third-year back just had his best game of the season on Monday night, averaging four yards per carry on 10 attempts while catching all six of his targets for 71 yards and two touchdowns. His 111 yards made him the team’s most productive running back on the night and while Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker contribute in the passing game as well, White’s ability as a receiver could be extra important with the absences of Tampa Bay’s top two wide receivers.

As he often is, Antoine Winfield Jr. could be the key for this Bucs defense on Sunday. He was missing from the first meeting with the Falcons, and as much as Todd Bowles needs to find answers over the middle of the field and when it comes to stopping Kirk Cousins in general, Winfield may be a big part of the solution. It also helps that the 2023 All-Pro has more tackles (combined and solo), passes defensed and forced fumbles against Atlanta than any other team in the league. He’s been something of a turnover machine against this particular division rival, and that could come in handy on Sunday.

Drake London is a problem for Tampa Bay. He has only faced Todd Bowles’ defense five times in his young career, but he has three 120-yard games in the last four meetings. There was a six-catch, 120-yard game on the final day of the 2022 season, a big 10-catch, 172-yard game in December 2023 and the most recent matchup between the two teams when he caught 12 of his 13 targets for 154 yards and a touchdown. With the Buccaneer secondary banged up, this could be a nightmare matchup for Bowles unless he has Zyon McCollum travel with London.

Falcons WR Drake London and Bucs NCB Tykee Smith – Photo by: USA Today

We’ll see two of the best safeties in football in this game on Sunday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium. There’s Antoine Winfield Jr., of course, and there’s also Atlanta’s Jessie Bates III. Bates is a playmaker, and while his Pro Football Focus grades are down from where they normally are, he’s still dangerous. The Bucs know that, as he forced two fumbles against them in Week 5 and 12 tackles (seven solo), a tackle for loss and a pass defensed in two games against them last year.

Bucs vs. Falcons Game Information

When: Sunday, October 27
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX – Adam Amin (Play by Play), Greg Olsen (Analyst), Pam Oliver (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst), Santiago Gramática (Reporter)