Here’s some news that will shock absolutely no one. The Bucs’ red zone offense has struggled this season.

Nuanced analysis, I know.

Since the arrival of the Bruce Arians/Byron Leftwich offense in 2019, the Bucs have consistently scored touchdowns on around 65% of their red zone opportunities according to teamrankings.com. In 2019 they were third in the league with a 64.81% success rate. In 2020 they were 11th at 64.56%. And in 2021 they were second at 65.79%. So, to see them currently tied for 20th in the league with Pittsburgh and Arizona at a 50% success rate is definitely cause for concern.

Now I think it is important to add some context here. The Bucs have had just 18 red zone opportunities all year. So, the difference between their previous standard of about 65% and their current production is a total of three drives that were presumably field goals becoming touchdowns. Or 12 points. But those 12 points could have proved pivotal. It is reasonable to argue that could turn this 3-3 team into a 5-1 team.

Therefore, we can say “While it isn’t much…it is kind of everything.”

What is plaguing the Bucs’ red zone attack? It’s a bit of everything. Play-calling. Execution. Let’s take a look. I thought it might be educational to take a look at one drive from each game that made it to the red zone, but ultimately stalled. Please note the Bucs’ red zone offense was red hot in Weeks 3 and 4 against Green Bay and Kansas City, going five-for-five during those weeks. Therefore, there will not be a look into those weeks.

Week One @ Dallas

The Bucs were 1-4 in red zone opportunities in week one. They had drives stall out at the 20 (field goal), 18 (missed field goal), and 11 (field goal again). I thought it would be prudent to look at the one that got closest. Up 6-3 with just over six minutes left in the first half the Bucs took possession of the ball at the Dallas 23 off of an interception by Antoine Winfield Jr. Up until this point in the game the Bucs offense had moved the ball almost at will, driving into scoring position on all three of their possessions. But true to the narrative of this article, had little to show for it.

This is the type of situation where a touchdown breaks the back of your opponent, putting you up by two scores and showing you can finish. The Bucs would stall out in five plays. It began well enough with a 12-yard end around to Julio Jones.

While this is the dreaded “first down run” that I and others have railed against, I love the play call. Starting the drive off with a seldom-used concept targeting the Cowboys secondary who are loathe to tackle was a great choice and netted a big gain and a new first down. Bravo!

What follows though was much more predictable. On first-and-10 from the Dallas 11, the Bucs run out of 12 personnel. The Cowboys defensive line gets good push with tight end Cade Otton getting pushed into the backfield and center Robert Hainsey losing his block at the point of attack. Running back Leonard Fournette is able to overcome this by creating and kicking out wide of the line to the right for a six-yard pickup to the Dallas 5.

Okay, so the run netted yardage in spite of itself. With second-and-5 the Bucs have a great opportunity to pass out of a run formation, right?

Instead, the Bucs run out of a run formation. The hole never materializes and Fournette gets a minimal gain. The following third-and-3 kills the drive.

Micah Parsons does to Josh Wells what he has done to many-a-tackle in the league. He wrecks him. You could argue that the play call should have had a tight end lined up left to help chip or stay in to help double-team him, but then you are keeping six to block four with little room for your receivers to work against a seven-man drop. No, this rep is just an elite player doing what he does. The second-down run is where I take most issue with the drive.

Week Two @ New Orleans

The Bucs only had one drive reach the red zone in Week 2. They were unable to convert it for a touchdown. After the Bucs’ first possession ended in a lost fumble deep in Saints territory, they began their second drive at their own 23 down 3-0 with just 35 seconds remaining in the first quarter. It took Tampa Bay just four plays to move the ball 60 yards to the Saints 17. A Mike Evans 41-yard catch-and-run did the majority of the heavy-lifting along the way. We will pick up the drive there.

A Bucs First Down … Run

Bucs choose to go with an inside run here. They had two runs in the drive prior which had netted 19 yards, so the running game was working at the time. Unfortunately, the play-side “A” gap this was designed for gets clogged up by a stout anchor by the 3-technique with Demario Davis lurking at the second level. Ideally, right guard Shaq Mason and right tackle Tristan Wirfs double team is more effective, and Mason can climb to the second level to get a hat on Davis.

So Fournette starts to look to improvise. He sees that left guard Luke Goedeke has climbed so he decides to follow. Unfortunately, Goedeke trips over the nose tackle’s foot and can’t occupy linebacker Pete Werner. Werner and the nose tackle are able to wrap up Fournette for a two-yard gain.

Second-And-8 Becomes A Pass-Obvious Situation

When your first-down play nets very little, you better be passing on second-down in an effort to dig yourself out of the hole. The Bucs do just that with a quick out to running back Rachaad White who motions out of the backfield to the slot for an empty set. Werner is great in coverage (he was fantastic all day), but this is still a catchable ball that could have set up 3rd-and-5. White drops it. The defensive play call of Cover 2 man effectively doubles Evans at the bottom of your screen. Tom Brady, working left to right won’t have time to get back across the field and takes the first read that has a reasonable chance of gaining yards.

Third-And-Long

The Bucs go with a designed swing pass to Fournette. It almost nets the first down. Wide receiver Mike Evans can’t sustain his block on cornerback Marshon Lattimore, and Lattimore is able to bring down Fournette a yard before the first down marker.

In my opinion, the drive stalled by a combination of lackluster play-calling and poor execution.

Week Five vs. Atlanta

The Bucs were two-for-four in red zone opportunities. We are going to go for two on this one and show both.

A Disappointing Turnover On Downs

Starting their second drive of the game, the Bucs moved down the field with relative ease, entering the red zone after traveling 60 yards in eight plays. That brings us to their first play inside the Atlanta 20.

On second-and-three the Bucs opt for a slant to receiver Russell Gage. Gage runs the slant from a stacked look, using Evans as a screen to give him a clean release. It works and Gage releases on his stem with plenty of separation. All Gage had to do is clear linebacker Mykal Walker in the underneath zone.

That delay to clear Walker gave the Falcons pass rush enough time to affect Brady on the throw. While they were unable to knock him down, they did prevent him from being able to step into his throw. Brady makes the throw from his back foot and short arms it. Gage doesn’t have a chance to make the grab. Now we get to 3rd-and-3.

This was a good play call in my estimation to get the ball to Otton underneath over the middle and let him stretch for the first down. But the referees were on a bathroom break and missed the correct ball placement and marked the Bucs just short of the line-to-gain. This led to a fourth-and-one.

I really wish we had the opposite end zone view on this. Fournette blows this play. He needs less than a yard. The line gets the initial push needed for him to gain the needed yardage. Goedeke and Smith fire off the line and hit their double team. Goedeke is able to move off that initial block and absorb the linebacker. Fournette moves wide and abandons his initial gap allowing Lorenzo Carter to lock him up and prevent a positive gain.

This one falls on the zebras and Fournette.

Another Field Goal

This should have been six. The Bucs go with a tight end screen to Otton. Godwin got a good block on the outside, while Wirfs was moving down field like a freight train. The pass was high to make sure it doesn’t get tipped by the Falcons defensive lineman. Otton can’t corral the pass, which was overthrown, and the ball falls incomplete. That brought the Bucs to second-and-10.

The Bucs try a receiver screen out of motion from a run-heavy look. Otton and Kyle Rudolph don’t get enough on their blocks to create a seam for Godwin to move up field. Goes for two yards. Third-and-8.

The Bucs are in a 3×1 with Evans down low by himself. The Falcons take Evans out of the play before the snap with their defensive alignment showing three defenders over him. This means Brady is looking concept side where he has Scotty Miller, Russell Gage, and Cade Otton from outside/in. Brady has a clean pocket and opts for Miller on the slant short of the goal line. It looks like Gage might have had an opening on the corner route with a nice inside wiggle at the top of the stem that shook the slot corner. However, if the corners would have passed off the routes there is a good chance Gage doesn’t open up and Brady’s decision makes total sense.

This drive misses a touchdown due to the high pass/Otton drop. Rookies dropping easy screens has happened more than it needs to this year.

Week Six @ Pittsburgh

Coming out of the first half the Bucs defense allowed Pittsburgh to get a field goal and go ahead 13-9. This provided the Bucs offense with an opportunity to go ahead for the first time in the game. The Bucs entered the red zone on their seventh play of the drive. This set them up with second-and-2 at the Steelers 15.

Sometimes the other team just makes a play. Brady makes a killer throw to Otton, who doesn’t gain much separation. Still, due to the ball placement this could have been six. Steelers linebacker Robert Spillane just makes a fantastic play to a) stay sticky in coverage and b) get his fingertips on the ball to disrupt the pass. Hat tip to you sir. That brought up third-and-2. The Bucs pick up the first on a Fournette run. Fast-forwarding through a few penalties that were traded back and forth and the Bucs wind up with first-and-goal at the 9-yard line.

Despite the 11 personnel, the Steelers are looking for run here and the Bucs oblige. Steelers safety Terrell Edmunds shoots the backside gap and is able to blow the play up in the backfield. With the benefit of hindsight, you’d like to see Godwin move down and try to slow Edmunds and pass off his block to Gage. Or with the benefit of hindsight, foresight, or any sight maybe you don’t run on first-and-goal from the 9. A successful run puts you at second-and-goal from the 4 or 5-yard line, which reduces what you can do with the reduced field.

Brady moves left to right on his progression against cover-1. It appears Brady looks for Brate who is the primary backside read. The middle linebacker reads Brady and moves over to Brate to effectively double him. Brady could have been manipulating the middle linebacker to open up the middle of the field for Evans running up the seam. But the single-high safety keys Evans from the jump and he gets removed from the equation.

Godwin can’t gain separation on the whip route and by the time he makes his break to the outside Brady has already released the ball on the fade to from the far hash to Russell Gage just before Steelers defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi steamrolls him after beating a double team! The ball placement isn’t perfect but isn’t entirely bad either. Gage just seems to mis-time his jump and fails to bring in the pass or stay in bounds. That brings us to third down.

The Bucs come out in the exact same formation with a 3×1 look with Gage, Godwin and Evans lined up play side and Brate as the backside. Evans running the over route from the slot pulls the slot corner and the high safety. This leaves the topside of the middle of the field as an opportunity for Brady to get the ball to Gage mirroring Evans’ over route from the outside. Brady has to navigate some pressure once again and Ogunjobi appears to affect the throw to at least some degree. But he gets it into the Gage’s pocket, albeit a bit low. It wasn’t an easy catch by any means, but it is certainly one Gage has made before.

Is There A Common Thread?

Well, yes and no. There wasn’t a single thing that consistently stalled each drive. Play-calling wasn’t spectacular on a few of them, but that’s more of an over-arching theme that we have belabored ad nauseum. Poor execution by rookies killed a couple more.

But overall, the Bucs red zone offense has missed for a variety of reasons. A missed block here, a penalty there. A dropped pass here, a misplaced ball there. The good news from that? More than likely these things will sort themselves out and you will see the efficiency improve going forward. But it is certainly something to monitor.