The Bucs, like most of us, seem to be change averse. And I get it. The thought of the unknown can be scary.

People by and large enjoy the comforts and comfortability of known quantities. It’s why we so often build routines in both our professional and personal lives. But for the Bucs the comforts of familiarity of sameness may be hurting them. Think about it. Following their 2020 Super Bowl victory they went to great lengths to bring just about every player back into the fold to make another go of it. And the cracks started to show with a roster that was leaning on veterans in key positions.

And while there was some turnover from 2021 to this year, there was still a concerted effort to try and keep as much of the offense together as possible. Center Ryan Jensen was convinced to stay with a close to top-of-the-market deal. Receiver Chris Godwin was retained for three years after a second consecutive franchise tag was necessitated.

The Bucs kept a light on for both Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Brady as we all know, decided to abandon his short-lived retirement to make at least one more go of it. Gronkowski on the other hand apparently thought long and hard about returning before opting to stay retired for the second time.

Oh yeah. And the Bucs re-signed Leonard Fournette – to a three-year deal worth $21 million. The pact was made well into the second phase of free agency. From a timing standpoint I wouldn’t say Fournette appeared to be a priority for the Bucs. However, once Brady returned it wasn’t long after that the Bucs agreed to terms with their starting running back.

Leonard Fournette

Bucs RB Leonard Fournette – Photo by: USA Today

I didn’t love the signing at the time, and I still don’t. Fournette has been a decent, yet inconsistent running back over his two-plus seasons with Tampa Bay. And for that type of production the Bucs gave him $7 million per year, which is tied for the 10th highest average annual value at the running back position according to Over The Cap. He has oscillated between almost getting cut late in 2020 to playoff hero that season. Then is 2021 he turned from a liability in the passing game to a solid blocker who enjoyed his best receiving campaign of his career.

That brings us to this year. Through seven games, Fournette’s performance has been lackluster at best. He is still showing the improved pass-catching abilities he put on display last season. But he hasn’t paired them with plus pass blocking. While many Bucs fans will undoubtedly remember his pancake of Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons, he hasn’t shown consistency in his form from week-to-week and it’s helping to leave Brady out to dry.

Fournette has developed a penchant this year in pass protection to drop his head, lead with his shoulder and hope to blow up his assignment with a big hit. It’s not working. You see it on the rep above as the blitzing safety glances off of Fournette’s shoulder throw and still gets to Brady. While he wasn’t able to sack the Bucs signal-caller, he was able to affect the throw by preventing Brady from stepping into it.

Now running backs don’t get signed to deals like Fournette has by just being good blockers. It’s about their running production. Well, in Fournette’s case the production just isn’t there. On the season Fournette is generating just 3.5 yards per carry. That is 24th among the 26 qualified backs with at least 72 carries.

Fournette Has Struggled In Short-Yardage Situations

And what’s more, he’s not winning on the short-yardage plays his frame would suggest he could thrive in.

Fournette is 5 for 13 on short yardage runs (3rd/4th & 1-2) this season, including today.

His 38.5% conversion rate is 2nd worst in the NFL for RBs with 5 or more short yardage rushes. https://t.co/IoR7qXidIA

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 23, 2022

Now many will cite a struggling offensive line as one major reason why the Bucs running back has struggled this season. And while there is some truth to that, the simple fact is Fournette is causing many of his own struggles. I’ll present two pieces of evidence to support my case. The first a clip from the Falcons game.

On fourth-and-1 early in the Atlanta game the Bucs were deep in Falcons territory. They opted for a run up the middle through the “A” gap. The interior of the offensive line gets the requisite push to convert the short-yardage attempt. But Fournette inexplicably decides to cut back towards the outside. In doing so he fails to pick up the first down and the Bucs turn the ball over.

The second piece of evidence I will point towards is the fact that Fournette is just not creating yardage beyond what is blocked up for him.

total rushing yards over expected shows us lamar jackson is still the most impactful rusher in the NFL while leondard fournette really needs to turn it around in tampa

full article: https://t.co/tgAMpcg6Wi pic.twitter.com/kr5XhFVawD

— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) October 21, 2022

Now this was prior to the Panthers game, but it still illustrates a year-long problem where Fournette’s actions, on the whole, are costing the Bucs yards.

Why Fournette Is Struggling

The reasons for Fournette’s struggles this year are two-fold. First, he lacks the acceleration and top-end speed to be an above average back. Now there are running backs who have succeeded at the NFL level without those attributes. Long-time Bucs fans will fondly remember the days of the A-Train – Mike Alstott – coming down the tracks. But Fournette doesn’t consistently lean into his larger frame to power through the line of scrimmage. I’m not saying he never does it. But I am saying he doesn’t do it nearly enough.

No, Fournette’s actions once he gets the ball lend themselves to have us believe he thinks he is more of a shifty scat back, with amazing change of direction abilities.

This run wasn’t blocked up great. I’ll concede the point right from the jump. But you’ll see Fournette exacerbates the situation by breaking down and trying to cut to the backside. If he had simply followed the rushes designed path and tried to stretch to the outside, he had could have used his building momentum and a good seal from tight end Ko Kieft to spring him for a decent gain. At the very least he would have gotten back to the line of scrimmage. Instead, this went for a loss.

Fournette needs to have a hard conversation with himself about who he is and what he does best. Like much of the Bucs offense right now he seems to be going through an identity crisis trying to play away from his strengths rather into them.

Here you have a third down where Brady is forced to dump the ball off to Fournette in the flats. The Bucs need about seven yards, and admittedly the odds of converting once Fournette gets the ball are small. But he eliminates them all together by deciding to break down at the 30.

Fournette invites more defenders instead of trying to push himself up field with a slight bend to the sideline. If he does that, he has a chance to outrun linebacker Shaq Thompson and lower his shoulder through the closing cornerback to at least set up a much more manageable fourth down. The examples of him leaving meat on the bone are numerous and plentiful.

Bucs Need To Increase Rachaad White’s Role

With Fournette’s struggles the Bucs need someone else to turn to. And I submit that player should be backup Rachaad White. White is, for the most part, the antithesis of Fournette. He is quicker, with more high-end speed. He also seems to run with a great deal more decisiveness than Fournette.

The Bucs rookie looks to get vertical each time he touches the ball.

Here on a run from shotgun you can see White with a small hesitation as he waits for his hole to develop. But that hesitation operates in stark contrast to Fournette’s dancing. White is displaying patience in getting the ball to where the run is designed to go to. Not looking to run the ball away from the play design.

The other unique aspect of this, as compared to Fournette, is that as White is delaying his burst he is still moving up field. It’s slow, but it’s there. Once the hole develops, he attacks it with reckless abandon, lowering his shoulder and leaning forward through contact.

You can see it again on this run from under center. White waits for left guard Nick Leverett to wall off the “B” gap before exploding through the line. No hesitation. No dancing. Just explosive running.

White Offers More In The Screen Game

Fournette has had some positive moments in the screen game this year. And the Bucs seem to love using running back screens as an integral part of their offense. The problem though, is that because Fournette lacks burst, if the screen develops in a way where he is in a stopped position, he is usually dead in the water. The defense is able to rally to him before he can fully get underway, and the gains are minimal at best.

No, for Fournette to succeed on a screen pass the play has to execute in such a way that he is receiving the ball while already moving laterally with plenty of room to bend up field OR he has to already be moving vertically.

White, however has the stop-start ability to grab a screen at rest and still create chunk plays. Case in point:

See how he turns up field and looks to squeeze every possible yard out of the play. Yes, there is some shimmy and some shake. But for all of the lateral changes White is constantly moving forward.

White May Already Be A Better Blocker

Fournette really endeared himself to the Bucs offensive staff last year as a “three-down back” by being a plus contributor in the passing game on third down. He excelled both as a pass catcher and a pass blocker. But as you saw earlier the pass protection has eroded. Meanwhile, White has shown himself to be pretty adept as a blocker.

This isn’t cool and fancy like the Parsons pancake. But it is technique sound and effective. He gets a strong push to help Tristan Wirfs and create a hole for Jaelon Darden. With a more aggressive playmaker this probably goes for a decent-to-great gain.

And there are more examples as well.

Rachaad White blitz pickup allowed Brady to throw the deep comeback to Evans that set Bucs up at 1. Great patience and finish. pic.twitter.com/LQtracr0al

— Jon Ledyard (@LedyardNFLDraft) October 10, 2022

There Needs To Be A Change In Usage

Head coach Todd Bowles has said repeatedly of late that the Bucs are “searching for answers.” I submit that one of those answers needs to be a change in how much each of their top two running backs are being used. This feels eerily similar to the Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard debate in Dallas. There is a good chance that the Bucs best running back at this point is the one getting less reps. And for the offense to turn things around that needs to change.

You can see through the first seven weeks of the season, Fournette has logged between 39 and 59 snaps per game while getting over 20 carries/targets four of seven games. Meanwhile, White has logged less snaps than Fournette had touches in the same number of games.

Going forward the snap share needs to be closer to 50/50 or even 60/40 in favor of White. Similarly, the touches, which are 3:1 in favor of Fournette season-to-date, should move towards a 50/50 split. This could be the spark the run game needs to get back in gear and become a more complimentary part of the offense. It could also create a more dynamic addition to the passing game.

As Bowles said the Bucs need answers. One of those answers is a change at the running back position.