Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

This week I wanted to take a look at Tampa Bay’s last four draft classes and evaluate how general manager Jason Licht, assistant G.M. John Spytek and the Bucs’ brass have done at acquiring young talent for the team’s immediate future. Drafting is an absolute inexact science, but Licht’s track record is better than most G.M.s around the league, and he’s proven to be capable of building a Super Bowl-caliber roster. That’s in addition to drafting eight Pro Bowlers over the last decade, which is a remarkable feat.

There was a comprehensive study done by Optimum Scouting that demonstrates just how hard it is to find players for the long term through the draft. The study focused on a six-year NFL career span, which means draft picks who earned a second contract with their respective teams.

Bucs GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Here is what the report had to say: “Players picked in the first round to the mid-second round are retained 38.2 percent of the time [for a six-year span]. Players drafted from the mid-second round through the third round are retained 14 percent of the time [over six years]. Players drafted from the fourth round to the mid-sixth round are retained 8.9 percent of the time [again, over six years by the same team]. Players drafted from the mid-sixth round through the seventh round are retained 1.5 percent of the time.”

The study shows that even most first-rounders are not sure-fire successes, and that finding Day 3 picks that develop into starters who stick around is an incredibly difficult feat. Licht and the Bucs have hit on a couple of first-rounders in the last four drafts, and have gotten remarkably better at mining Day 3 for legit talent.

The Bucs have seen plenty of starters emerge from the last two draft classes alone, and that bodes well for Tampa Bay’s future if those players continue to develop and ascend. Here’s my analysis from Tampa Bay’s 2020-23 draft classes and the promise that the future holds.

FAB 1. 2020 – Bucs Find 2 Future Hall Of Famers

Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: USA Today

Bucs general manager Jason Licht and his able scouting department led by John Spytek, Mike Biehl and Rob McCartney hit an absolute home run at the turn of the decade with two potential Hall of Famers in offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs in the first round and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. Both were instant starters and their high level of play during their rookie season helped Tampa Bay win Super Bowl LV in 2020.

The rest of the Bucs’ 2020 draft class is rather “meh.” Licht reached for running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third round and he’s essentially been a third-string runner during his career in Tampa Bay. Vaughn, who has been a disappointment, is in a contract year and won’t be re-signed in 2024.

The other picks include wide receiver Tyler Johnson in the fifth round, defensive tackle Khalil Davis in the sixth and linebacker Chapelle Russell and running back/kick returner Raymond Calais in the seventh. Johnson made a few clutch catches as a rookie during the Super Bowl run, but didn’t last long in Tampa Bay. Davis and Russell started on the practice squad, but were gone by their second season in the league. Calais didn’t make the final cut as a rookie.

So four years later, the Bucs will only have two players from the 2020 draft class moving forward. But the two who will receive second contracts – and huge ones at that – are Pro Bowlers in Wirfs and Winfield.

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Can you remember any other draft picks from Tampa Bay’s fabled 1995 draft that saw the Bucs select two Hall of Famers in defensive tackle Warren Sapp and linebacker Derrick Brooks in the first round?

No, I didn’t think so.

In case you’re wondering, the other members of the 1995 draft class were safety Melvin Johnson in the second round, cornerbacks Jerry Wilson and Clifton Abraham in the fourth and fifth rounds, linebacker Wardell Rouse in the sixth round and offensive tackle Steve Ingram and defensive end Jeff Rodgers in the seventh round.

Only two hits out of eight picks back in 1995, but nobody cares because the Bucs rose to prominence due to Sapp and Brooks’ overwhelming talent and won the franchise’s first Super Bowl in 2002. It’s the same thing with Licht’s 2020 draft, as Wirfs and Winfield are now considered the best 1-2 punch in Tampa Bay draft history behind Sapp and Brooks. Already with a Super Bowl ring and a Pro Bowl resume´Wirfs and Winfield are on a Hall of Fame trajectory.

FAB 2. 2021 – Good Process, Bad Results In Tampa Bay

Right after winning Super Bowl LV, 31-9, over the Kansas City Chiefs at Raymond James Stadium, Bucs general manager Jason Licht and head coach Bruce Arians made a big decision. Realizing that Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl window was still open, Licht, Arians and assistant general manager Mike Greenberg re-signed virtually every free agent in the offseason for a chance to repeat in 2021.

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – Photo by: USA Today

With every starting spot filled by a veteran, the Bucs’ 2021 draft was about adding depth players and hopefully some successors who could become eventual starters.

Licht and the front office did something they had yet to do in Tampa Bay, which was own the last pick in each round by virtue of winning the Super Bowl. No first round has 32 players with a true first-round grade. Most drafts have about 15-20 elite players worthy of first-round grades.

Yet actual first-round picks come with fifth-year options, so they are important. With Shaq Barrett approaching 30 and Jason Pierre-Paul turning 32 in 2021, Licht selected athletic pass rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. With COVID-19 hitting college football in 2020, Tryon-Shoyinka really only started one season at Washington, and then opted out of the ’20 season because the PAC-12 decided to only play four games.

Tryon-Shoyinka was going to be a project, but he had time to develop behind Barrett and Pierre-Paul. The process was sound, but it turns out that JTS had a low ceiling as a pass rusher. He’s proven to be an athlete playing football rather than a football player. He’s plateaued with four sacks in each of his first two seasons and has four this year with four games left. Tryon-Shoyinka has lost his starting job to rookie YaYa Diaby, who already has five sacks — with most of those coming as a rotational player.

The good news for the Bucs is that they made a nice recovery with a promising young pass rusher in Diaby, but they would’ve loved for Tryon-Shoyinka to emerge as a force as a starter, too. JTS will enter a contract year next year and likely won’t have his fifth-year option picked up next spring.

Bucs QB Kyle Trask – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs spent the final pick in the second round on quarterback Kyle Trask. The hope was that Trask could develop for a few years behind Tom Brady without the pressure to start. But he couldn’t beat out veteran Blaine Gabbert and didn’t ascend up the depth chart to the backup spot until this season.

Again, the process was sound and it would have been a great plan if Trask had shown some signs that he could take over as the starter after Brady left. But he was beaten out by Baker Mayfield in camp and the preseason, and will enter his contract year likely as a backup once again in 2024. There’s a chance he could get a few end-of-season starts if the Bucs get eliminated from the playoffs in the coming weeks, but Trask largely remains an unknown commodity.

The Bucs did find a valuable offensive lineman in the third round in Robert Hainsey, who has been the team’s starting center over the last two years with the loss of Ryan Jensen. Hainsey is serviceable, but expect Tampa Bay to either draft another lineman to play center or sign one in free agency. Moving right guard Cody Mauch to center is an option, but doing so would leave an opening at guard that will have to be filled, too.

Bucs ILB KJ Britt – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Fifth-round linebacker K.J. Britt finally got the chance to show he’s more than an ace special teamer with a great debut as a starter at Atlanta with eight tackles and a pass breakup. He could start again this week depending on the health of Devin White, but Britt played better than White has in months. And Britt could be in the mix to start next year with the Bucs moving on from White.

Fourth-round pick wide receiver Jaelon Darden was released last season, while sixth-round pick cornerback Chris Wilcox didn’t make the team as a rookie. Seventh-round pick Grant Stuard was traded in the draft to Indianapolis last year.

Overall, this is one of Licht’s worst drafts because of the lack of star power. Only Hainsey and Britt may get second contracts in Tampa Bay, and that might be just for depth, as was the case with outside linebacker Anthony Nelson last March.

FAB 3. 2022 Shaping Up To Be An Extremely Solid Draft Haul

It’s not uncommon for a team to have most or all of its picks still on the team one year out from any given draft. A team’s draft picks are typically shed over the course of years, just as the Bucs’ 2020 class will be whittled down to just Tristan Wirfs and Antoine Winfield Jr. next year.

Bucs DTs Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall and OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: USA Today

But as Tampa Bay’s 2021 draft class is fizzling, the 2022 class is sizzling. There aren’t any apparent Pro Bowlers just yet from this class – no one is on Wirfs’ or Winfield’s level. But there are some solid, developing players who show real promise.

For a Bucs team on a budget this year, six of the seven remaining draft picks from 2022 are starters – most of them damn good ones. That is a great sign for the future.

Defensive tackle Logan Hall, the first pick in the second round, has been slow to develop and might not be the impact player Jason Licht and Todd Bowles hoped he would be as the 33rd overall pick. His ceiling might be as a more athletic Will Gholston, which wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing, considering Gholston has given Tampa Bay 11 years of quality service.

But Hall is not at the level Gholston was at during his prime – at least not yet. Hall has made strides against the run, but must continue to live in the weight room and get stronger in the offseason. He also must move away from the swim move that worked in college and develop better pass rush moves in 2024. He has just half a sack this season.

Bucs RT Luke Goedeke – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

While Hall has underwhelmed, right tackle Luke Goedeke has emerged as a very good starter with a promising upside. He may never be a Pro Bowler, but if he can be a Demar Dotson-type and man the right tackle spot for 10 years in Tampa Bay, that would be a huge win for Licht and Co. Early results show that potential, and Goedeke should be even better next year with one full season at right tackle under his belt.

Third-round pick Rachaad White was slow to come on as a dual-threat out of the backfield, but is suddenly the league’s third-ranked running back in all-purpose yards. White has the potential to be the Bucs’ first 1,000-yard rusher since Doug Martin back in 2015. Like Goedeke, he may never become a Pro Bowler, but he’s showing signs of being a very valuable weapon and his stock is on the rise.

Tight end Cade Otton, the team’s fourth-round pick, has become a reliable red zone weapon in clutch moments over the last two years. He’s certainly more Dave Moore than he is Rob Gronkowski in terms of his skill set and athleticism, but the Bucs hope he can develop into a Cam Brate-level player over the next year.

Bucs P Jake Camarda – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The reality is that Otton is a solid No. 2 NFL tight end who is a starter right now because he’s the best the Bucs have. Not bad value considering he’s a Day 3 pick.

Punter Jake Camarda, the Bucs’ other fourth-round pick from this draft, is actually the best of the bunch. Licht got ridiculed by fans for drafting a punter in the fourth round just a few years after drafting two kickers. But the Bucs’ G.M. knew what he was doing.

Tampa Bay got an instant starter with the selection of Camarda. And he also holds great value as the team’s holder and kickoff specialist. Plus, Camarda has shown Pro Bowl potential and is already one of the league’s best punters. So far, Camarda is easily the Bucs’ best pick in the 2022 draft. And for the many hats he wears, this is a tremendous value pick on Day 3 for Licht.

It’s taken Zyon McCollum a little while to develop and live up to his athletic potential, but the second-year cornerback is beginning to look like a starting-caliber player. Licht used a 2023 fourth-round pick to move up in the fifth round in 2022 to draft McCollum, who has yet to surrender a touchdown this year and is holding opposing QBs to just a 50% completion percentage when throwing to his side of the field.

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum Photo By: Cliff Welch P/R

This may go down as being Licht’s best draft day trade – after he moved up one spot to land Wirfs in 2020, of course. McCollum is an ascending defender and may wind up starting ahead of Carlton Davis III or Jamel Dean in 2024.

Sixth-round pick Ko Kieft is strictly a special teams player and is currently the Bucs’ third-string tight end. He’s incredibly limited as a receiver and most likely will have a hard time making the roster in 2024 as the team will undoubtedly add more competition to the mix at tight end in the offseason. That’s fine. He’s a sixth-round pick and they are long shots to begin with.

Seventh-round pick Andre Anthony, an outside linebacker, did not make the roster his rookie season.

Landing six starters in this draft class is quite a coup for Licht and Co. At least four of these players could see a second contract with Tampa Bay in 2026, and that would be a huge win for any draft class.

FAB 4. 2023 Bucs Draft Has Much-Needed Star Power

Prior to the 2023 Draft, I wrote that Jason Licht needs a home run draft. Licht and the Bucs had a really solid 2022 draft. Call it a double or maybe even a triple in baseball terms.

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But the Bucs needed to score some runs with the 2023 Draft. They needed to get back to drafting some Pro Bowl-caliber talent.

And it does have the makings of a home run draft for Tampa Bay.

It’s early, but defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, Tampa Bay’s first-round pick, has shown signs of being special. At 6-foot, 286 pounds, Kancey is undersized and will need to add strength and power in the weight room in the offseason to be even more effective in taking on blocks and shedding them in 2024.

But Kancey already has four sacks this season despite essentially missing the first five games of the year. That’s more sacks than Warren Sapp, Gerald McCoy and Vita Vea had in their rookie seasons. All three of those former first-round defensive tackles also developed into Pro Bowlers in Tampa Bay, by the way. Kancey has Pro Bowl traits and ability, plus the seriousness and work ethic to get there.

With Licht possibly whiffing with the selection of Logan Hall in 2022, he’s made up for it big time by drafting an upgrade in Kancey. Say what you want about Licht, but he doesn’t hang on to mistakes and looks to correct them quickly.

Second-round pick Cody Mauch was one of the most athletic offensive linemen in the 2023 draft. He’s been thrown into the fire as a rookie right guard after playing left tackle at North Dakota State, an FCS powerhouse. Mauch has experienced quite the learning curve this year as a result, but it’s been a necessary trial-by-fire.

Bucs RG Cody Mauch – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Mauch’s steady development and upside show he can be a guard who is somewhere between Ali Marpet and Alex Cappa in time. Probably closer to Marpet due to his athleticism. Mauch will continue to be a starter throughout his rookie contract – either at guard or possibly at center.

Third-round pick YaYa Diaby looks like a future star. He’s already beaten out Joe Tryon-Shoyinka as a starter and has five sacks this season – most of them coming with limited reps as a backup. Diaby is a hard worker and a physical force as an edge rusher. He’ll only get better with time.

Like Licht did with drafting Kancey to essentially erase a possible mistake with Hall, the Bucs G.M. has done that with the selection of Diaby, who has been an upgrade over the disappointing Tryon-Shoyinka.

The Bucs didn’t have a fourth-round pick due to the Zyon McCollum trade in 2022, but did select inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis and tight end Payne Durham in the fifth round. It’s too early to tell if Dennis has the potential to be a starter, but the Bucs hope he can be the eventual replacement for Lavonte David at weakside (Mo) linebacker.

Durham is currently the No. 2 tight end in Tampa Bay and is slightly behind Cade Otton in terms of ability. He’s not fleet of foot, but is a good receiver. There is potential for Durham to be a solid depth piece at tight end in Tampa Bay for years to come.

Bucs CB Josh Hayes – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs had three sixth-round picks and two of them are still on the active roster. Cornerback Josh Hayes has already become a stellar gunner on punt coverage and has value as a Day 3 core special teamer. Can he develop into a starter in time? I have no idea, but he’s already done enough to justify his sixth-round selection.

Wide receiver Trey Palmer has shown promise on offense, but his production has stalled during his rookie year. Still, Palmer has enough upside with his speed to be at least a No. 3 or No. 4 receiver in Tampa Bay for years to come and justify his late Day 3 selection.

Outside linebacker Jose Ramirez has spent his rookie season on the practice squad, but has shown some real progress behind the scenes and could push for a roster spot in 2024.

This draft class has some real star power with Kancey, Mauch and Diaby. And the Bucs could find another starter or two if Dennis or Palmer develops in time, which could take this group to a whole new level.

FAB 5. Bucs Have Shined Mining Undrafted Free Agency, Too

Bucs WR-KR-PR Deven Thompkins – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Undrafted free agency is known as “the draft after the draft,” and faced with $79 million in dead salary cap space this year, the Bucs had to lean heavily on undrafted free agency this year to find cheap talent to stock the depth chart. Tampa Bay had 10 players on the active roster who were undrafted free agents that the team had procured from either this year or previous years. That’s just about one-fifth of the roster.

Most of the undrafted free agents have been backups and special teams contributors, but the Bucs have gotten solid play when a few have had to step on the field on offense or defense.

Deven Thompkins is the team’s return specialist and No. 4 receiver, while Rakim Jarrett was showing potential as a weapon at wide receiver before his season-ending quad injury. Running back Sean Tucker needs to make strides in pass protection, but could be a factor in the offense next year.

On defense, inside linebacker J.J. Russell stepped in for Devin White and played great against Carolina. Kaevon Merriweather has been a nice fill-in at safety. Markees Watts is an emerging situational pass rusher that some believe might have starter potential one day to his similarity to Shaq Barrett. He’s already surpassed fellow UDFA Cam Gill for snaps on defense recently.

Bucs director of player personnel Mike Biehl, assistant GM John Spytek and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

And Christian Izien has proven to be a capable nickel cornerback, but the Bucs could still use an upgrade.

Defensive tackle Mike Greene and offensive lineman Brandon Walton are the other two undrafted free agents, but they are not locks to stick on the roster for 2024.

There is a chance that perhaps four of these UDFAs pan out and stick with the team for years to come. Thompkins, Jarrett, Watts and Merriweather could be that quartet if they continue to develop and improve.

Even after the draft, Jason Licht and the Bucs’ personnel staff have found a few gems that can help this team from years to come.