The 5-2 Bucs will look to bounce back from a difficult loss on Monday Night Football by beating the 1-6 Saints before hoping to heal up during the bye week. The Saints are better than their record would have you believe and the Buccaneers would be wise to not overlook them. I took a look at some of New Orleans’ defensive tendencies to see what concepts and patterns Tampa Bay may want to attack with on offense. These are no doubt things offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard will be looking at as well.

Bucs OC Josh Grizzard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bucs’ Plan To Win On First Down

The Saints use a 4-2-5 nickel on most first downs. It’s their preferred match to 11 personnel but they have struggled to defend it well, giving up 0.134 EPA/play and a success rate of 49.4%. In these looks New Orleans doesn’t go for much deception, using a four-man surface while splitting their shells close to 50/50 between 1-high and 2-high looks, with a nearly identical split between man and zone with post-snap rotation less than 1/5 of the time.

New Orleans has defended the run better than the pass overall, but offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard will want to establish an even mix of run and pass after getting pass-heavy last week against the Lions.

Bucs RB Sean Tucker – Photo by: USA Today

Saints Key First Down Tendencies Against 11 Personnel

• Personnel match – 71.6% 4-2-5 nickel
• EPA/play allowed – +0.134
• Success rate – 49.4%
• 4-man surface – 71.6%
• Blitz rate – 12.3%
• 2-high shell pre-snap – 54.3%
• Zone coverage – 45.7%
• Man coverage – 54.3%
• Primary coverages
  • Cover-3 – 41.7%
  • Cover-1 – 27.1%
• Post-snap rotation – 18.5%

When running against the Saints, Tampa Bay won’t need to get too complicated with traps and pulls. New Orleans’ defensive tackles have struggled against double teams this season. The Buccaneers should be able to create positives in the run games by leaning on inside zone and duo with some toss plays as a change up to slow-triggering linebackers.

On pass plays the Buccaneers can try to win in the passing game with motion to attack safety rotations. An example of this can be found in their week five win over the Seahawks.

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— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) October 25, 2025

I would hope a variation of this will pop up on first down in week eight. And a play like this could have a built-in man beater where the motion receiver extends to a wheel if he gets a follow and the boundary receiver on the motion side adjusts to a slant to create traffic for the follow defender.

I’d also expect the Buccaneers to use Flood concepts to get other explosives at opportune times.

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— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) October 26, 2025

Add in speed outs to get quick leverage on the dropping boundary corners and keep the Buccaneers ahead of the sticks and they should keep the Saints off balance enough to keep the offense efficient. I’d also hope Tampa Bay uses 21 personnel as a change up; New Orleans moves to a 5-2-4 base front and has struggled to defend against those looks this year.

Bucs Must Isolate Saints S Jonas Sanker

One of the brighter spots for New Orleans this year is rookie Jonas Sanker. Sanker is a live-wire player who plays 100 miles an hour. He is at his best working half-field or in the box where his quick downfield trigger can lead to impactful plays. But the rookie is not a perfect player, and he can be isolated and taken advantage of in specific spots.

On early downs where the Saints go to single-high looks they play to the leverage of the offensive formation. If the Buccaneers can keep that leverage to Justin Reid’s side, it puts Sanker as the post safety. It is in those situations that Sanker can get exposed as his strengths aren’t as a centerfielder.

Lots to like about Saints rookie S Jonas Sanker. But he is much better at half-field than post safety. And do you know who runs really good deep post routes? pic.twitter.com/9ug64zdjwI

— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) October 26, 2025

Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

I would hope Josh Grizzard is looking to find an early-down play action shot that would get Emeka Egbuka or Tez Johnson crossing Sanker’s face as the post safety for a home run ball from Baker Mayfield.