It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game. Tampa Bay snapped a four-game losing streak coming off a bye week and beat a bad Giants team in New York, 30-7, to improve to 5-6 on the season. Baker Mayfield completed 80% of his passes and ran for a touchdown as Tampa Bay scored a total of four touchdowns on the ground.

Todd Bowles’ defense sacked Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito four times and held New York to just one touchdown and 245 total yards. More importantly, Tampa Bay gained half a game on NFC South-leading Atlanta, which has a 6-5 record and a tiebreaker over the Bucs. The Falcons had a bye in Week 12. Scott Reynolds shares his insight about Tampa Bay’s chances in 2-Point Conversion.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Bucs Have A “Get Well” Game vs. Giants

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

The Bucs saw the return of a couple of key starters in Sunday’s 30-7 win over the Giants in New York. Wide receiver Mike Evans and cornerback Jamel Dean returned to action from their injured hamstrings and Tampa Bay snapped its four-game losing streak with a convincing, blowout victory.

This was a “get well” game for an ailing Bucs team that has been banged up on the depth chart with injuries and in the win column with several close losses this year en route to a 4-6 record heading into the bye.

A statement win like what transpired on Sunday is just what the doctor ordered coming out of a much-needed bye in Week 10. Evans’ return to action meant a return to scoring 30 points per game for Liam Coen’s offense – although Tampa Bay didn’t need all of those points to beat a hapless Giants team which may be the most inferior opponent on the schedule this season. Evans had five catches for 68 yards to lead all receivers and also drew a key pass interference penalty in the end zone that led to another touchdown.

Coen’s offense had played well during Evans’ three-game absence, scoring 24 points in losses against the Falcons and Chiefs and 20 points in a loss versus the 49ers. But getting back to scoring 30 points was a welcomed sight, and something the team has now done five times in 2024. Tampa Bay is 4-2 this season when it scores 30 points or more and 1-4 in games scoring less than 30.

And Coen figured out how to get all three of his talented running backs involved early. On Tampa Bay’s first scoring drive, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker each had three carries while Bucky Irving had three receptions. Tucker wound up scoring the opening touchdown, but Irving and White also each scored a rushing TD.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Defensively, Todd Bowles’ unit allowed just one touchdown and forced a turnover in the red zone to prevent the Giants from scoring again. The seven points surrendered in New York was a welcomed sight after seeing Tampa Bay’s defense allow an average of 28.5 points per game over the previous six games in which the Bucs went 1-5 prior to Sunday’s win over the Giants. The previous low was allowing 14 points on defense against the Eagles in a 33-16 win back in Week 4.

Still, after leading 24-0 at halftime, the Bucs and Giants each scored a touchdown in the second half with Chase McLaughlin missing Tampa Bay’s extra point. Tampa Bay took its foot off the gas in the second half on both sides of the ball. This game could have been a 45-0 win had the players maintained their intensity and focus for all four quarters. That’s something Bowles alluded to in his post-game address to the team.

“Hey guys, great focus coming out of the bye,” Bowles said. “That’s how we wanted to start the second half. Obviously we’ve got to finish the ballgame, right? We talked about the killer instinct. We’re only halfway there. We’ve got six more of these. We’ve got to play the same way. But at the end of the ballgame, let’s finish them out.”

That’s interesting, as the title of my last 2-Point Conversion column was “Bucs Defense Lacks Killer Instinct” following Tampa Bay’s 23-20 loss to San Francisco. The Bucs will need to foster a killer instinct on a weekly basis to rack up at least five more wins to finish 10-7, which should get them into playoff positioning.

Sunday’s victory in New York should give this Bucs team some needed confidence down the stretch, and certainly pleased a very concerned Tampa Bay fan base for a least a week.

STATEMENT 2. Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey Lead The Way For Bucs Defense

Bucs DT Vita Vea and Giants QB Tommy DeVito – Photo by: USA Today

Another week, another sack for defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, who has five sacks through the six games he’s played in, including a sack in each of the last three games. Kancey helped set the tone early on with a first-quarter sack of Tommy DeVito. Then he knocked DeVito out of the game momentarily with a big quarterback hit in the fourth quarter.

Not to be outdone, defensive tackle Vita Vea had a sack in New York as well. That was Vea’s team-leading sixth sack of the season, which puts him one sack away from a new career high. Vea, who saw a couple of snaps on offense as a fullback near the goal line on Sunday, led the team with 6.5 sacks in 2022.

When asked if Vea is playing at a Pro Bowl level this year, Bucs head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles heaped praise on his 347-pound defensive destroyer.

“I mean, he has a good season every year for me,” said Bowles, who has led Tampa Bay’s defense since 2019. “It’s not about the Pro Bowl, it’s about helping us win and the accolades will come as they come. Whoever has the best record – it usually ends up like that and it kind of goes according to that. But I think he had a Pro Bowl year the last couple of seasons for us. In my opinion, he’s playing good football, he’s got the sacks to show it – that’s not the whole story that it tells because he’s destroying the middle and he’s keeping us in ballgames.”

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey and Giants QB Tommy DeVito – Photo by: USA Today

Kancey has now set a new personal best after recording four sacks as a rookie last year. With him trailing for the team lead by one sack it seems like either he or Vea will wind up as Tampa Bay’s sack leader in 2024 – hopefully with double-digit sacks.

“We haven’t had it on the inside from a sack-total production, but I think all those guys are getting after it right now,” Bowles said. “Again, the more time they’re playing together and spending together and learning each other, they can set up each other as far as making plays, and that’s good.”

New York’s Dexter Lawrence II is leading all defensive tackles with nine sacks, but Vea is next with six sacks. There’s a very good chance that Vea will make his second-ever Pro Bowl this season.

And Kancey could join him if he keeps getting QB takedowns at the rate he is.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Is It Time To Make Bucky Irving The Bucs’ Starting Running Back?

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

Yes, it’s long overdue. There’s no question that rookie Bucky Irving is the best running back in Tampa Bay. I remember creating quite a stir after Tampa Bay’s Week 1 win over Washington when I came out with a Pewter Pulse video entitled “Bucs RB Controversy Brewing In Tampa Bay?” I had seen what Irving could do in training camp where his uncanny knack for making defenders miss was on display on a daily basis.

Then when he ripped off a 31-yard run against Washington in the season opener en route to 62 yards rushing in his NFL debut it became clear to me back then that he was Tampa Bay’s most talented runner. Irving’s vision, toughness and knack for eluding would-be-tacklers separate himself from Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. He’s been the Bucs’ leading rusher among running backs in seven of the team’s 11 games and Tampa Bay is 4-3 this year when that happens.

It was a shame that offensive coordinator Liam Coen didn’t allow Irving to finish out the game in New York with a few more carries. Irving had a career-high 87-yard day on 12 carries (7.3 avg.), but the last six handoffs went to White, who finished the game with 37 yards rushing on 12 carries (3.1 avg.). Aided by a career-long 56-yard run, Irving was perilously close to his first 100-yard game in the NFL.

Still, Irving leads all Bucs rushers with 579 yards and five rushing touchdowns. His 5.4-yard average is far superior to White’s 3.7-yard average, and White has only rushed for 343 yards this season. Only Tucker’s 6.3-yard average is better, but he’s had 78 fewer carries than Irving this season.

Irving totaled a career-high 151 yards in New York, including a career-long 32-yard catch. He now has four runs of 30 yards or more this season and two receptions longer than 20 yards. He’s the most consistently explosive runner the Bucs have and he doesn’t need to be splitting carries 50-50 with White. He should be getting twice as many carries as Tampa Bay’s lead back down the stretch.

QUESTION 2. Is Carolina A Trap Game For Tampa Bay?

Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: USA Today

It could be. We talked about potential trap games for the Bucs in last week’s PR Roundtable and Adam Slivon suggested that Tampa Bay’s trip to Carolina could trip the team up. Personally, I picked the Saints game in Week 18 as a potential trap game. Who knows what the Saints’ record will be heading into the season finale? New Orleans, which is 5-1 in its last six games at Raymond James Stadium, could be in the thick of the NFC Wild Card playoff race or might just be playing spoiler by then.

But the Bucs can’t overlook a Panthers team that is playing inspired football right now despite the team’s 3-8 record. Carolina won two straight before losing a hard-fought game, 30-27, against Kansas City at home on Sunday. That could serve as a moral victory for first-year head coach Dave Canales and his crew heading into a Week 13 game against the visiting Buccaneers.

I could see the Panthers, who have lost three straight to the Bucs, including both games last year, playing hard for Canales, who was Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator last year and wanting to get the win for him. Keep in mind that the Bucs beat the Panthers, 21-18, last year at home and then won 9-0 in Carolina to end the season and capture a third straight division title. In Week 18 the Panthers dropped three would-be interceptions and had a fourth-quarter touchdown called back.

Quarterback Bryce Young is 2-2 in his last four starts since returning to action after his early-season benching. He’s thrown three touchdowns and just one interception over the last three games while completing 60% of his passes. Expect Carolina to give Tampa Bay a real fight in a game that the Panthers believe is winnable against a 5-6 Bucs team.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Mike Evans Goes Off For 100+ Yards In Carolina

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

The good news for Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans is that he returned to action after missing three games and managed to finish the game healthy with no ill effects to his injured hamstring. Evans contributed five catches for a game-high 68 yards and also drew a pass interference call in the end zone to help set up a Tampa Bay touchdown.

The only problem is that Evans now has 31 catches for 403 yards (13 avg.) and six touchdowns on the season. With just six games left, Evans, who is 597 yards away from 1,000 receiving yards, must now average 99.5 yards per game to hit that milestone and extend his NFL record to 11 straight seasons with 1,000 yards. He came into Sunday’s game against the Giants needing to average 95 yards each game to hit 1,000 yards.

The problem for Evans is that his career average per game is just 78 yards, so asking him to produce 20 more yards per game than that age 31 is a Herculean task. The good news is that Evans has historically played well against the Panthers with four of his 36 regular season 100-yard games coming versus Carolina. That’s tied with Atlanta for his most 100-yard games against any opponent.

But the last three of those games versus the Panthers have all come at Tampa Bay rather than at Carolina. Still, I think there’s a good chance that Evans goes off for his first 100-yard game of the season next Sunday and makes his race to 1,000 yards seem less far-fetched than it does now.

PREDICTION 2. Bucs at Cowboys Game Will Get Flexed Out Of Primetime

Bucs CB Jamel Dean and LB Lavonte David – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs are 0-3 in primetime games this season, but help could be on the way. With the team’s Week 16 game at Dallas currently set for Sunday Night Football, there’s a strong chance that the game gets flexed to an afternoon start and taken out of primetime. It would certainly take a lot to knock a national team like Dallas from the national spotlight on Sunday night, but the fact that the Bucs are 5-6 and the Cowboys a 4-7 doesn’t help.

If both teams can continue to win down the stretch and both are in playoff contention by Week 16 the game could still stick with the 8:20 p.m. ET start on NBC. But there are a pair of other more impactful games against more quality teams in Week 16 that may bump the Bucs and Cowboys from a nationally televised audience.

The Steelers (8-3 ) will travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens (7-4) in a game that could decide the AFC North division winner. The same is true with the Eagles (9-2) traveling to Washington (7-5) to play the Commanders in a game that will have playoff seeding on the line – if not deciding which team wins the NFC East. A dark-horse candidate could be the 49ers at Miami against the Dolphins. Both teams are 5-6, but if they continue to win they’ll be in the mix for playoff spots as well.