An underdiscussed part of the Bucs’ 20-17 win over the Cardinals in Week 13 was a fourth down at the two-minute warning of the first half. Up 3-0 and at the Arizona 14-yard line, Tampa Bay needed two yards to keep its drive alive. Alternatively, it could take a chip-shot field goal and go up 6-0 close to halftime.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles opted for the more aggressive approach and went for the first down. The gambit paid off.

An extremely underrated moment in the game. pic.twitter.com/YNYNvvqLNd

— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) December 6, 2025

The Ramifications Of An Aggressive Approach

Quarterback Baker Mayfield found receiver Sterling Shephard over the ball for five yards and a renewed chance at seven points. The payoff came four plays later on the most fun score of the Bucs’ season.

Tristan Wirfs’ receiving grade: 📈pic.twitter.com/jWeFFdUZG6

— All-22 (@All22_PFF) November 30, 2025

I don’t need to tell you how crucial four points is in a contest that was decided by three points. Bowles made the right call. With a successful conversion, their chances of winning went from 75% to 81%. Not converting dropped those odds to 68%. Connecting on the field goal actually dropped the team’s expected win percentage to 74%.

Considering the odds of converting or failing each of the possible decisions, the analytical recommendation was to go for it. Bowles did and prospered.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Three weeks prior, Bowles had a more conservative approach when the Bucs faced the Patriots. Early in the second quarter, faced with another 4th & 2 on their own 38, Bowles chose to punt instead of act aggressively. Early in the game on their own side of the field, it may seem like that decision was overly aggressive. But the Bucs’ chances of winning would have increased if they had kept the pedal down.

Todd Bowles’ Improved But Inconsistent Approach To Fourth Downs

Against Buffalo the week after the Patriots game, Bowles was once again conservative, opting to punt down 21-20 in the third quarter. His conservative nature was bailed out by a fantastic Josh Hayes play on the punt coverage. Hayes forced a fumble that Ryan Miller recovered. The Bucs would score a touchdown to take a 26-21 lead after a failed two-point conversion.

These two decisions notwithstanding, Bowles has mostly made the right call when faced with fourth down decisions this year. Ben Baldwin, whose rbsdm.com site tracks team fourth down decisions, has the Bucs 12th in the NFL in how often they make the right decision at just under 60%.

That’s a huge step in the right direction from where Bowles was just a few years ago. In 2022 and 2023, the Bucs were 21st and 25th, respectively. In both years, they were just under 40% going for it when they should have.

Bucs OC Josh Grizzard and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

One of the biggest changes Tampa Bay made this offseason was hiring Zach Beistline as its director of football research. Beistline’s primary responsibility is to help Bowles better react in-game to specific down, distance and time scenarios. Given the improvements noted earlier, it would seem his presence is making a difference – though it could be a bigger one.

The Bills and Patriots games show Bowles, who takes input from Beistline but still has final control on those decisions, still has a tendency to revert back to his conservative ways.

But if the Bucs are to run the table down the stretch and make any type of noise in the playoffs, it will require him to embrace a new world order with regards to how game decisions are managed. The winning percentage of the 10 most aggressive fourth down teams in the NFL this year is .537. The 10 most conservative teams? .442.

The Bucs have been besieged by injuries this year, reducing their competitive advantage. They can’t afford to give away any more advantages. Bowles will need to be the version of himself from the Cardinals game.