In the NFL, home-field advantage is a big deal. Or at least it’s supposed to be. There’s a reason point spreads are impacted by who the home team is, right? Having your home fans in your corner should be a help late in games, shouldn’t it? But for the Bucs, that hasn’t been the case so far in 2023.

Rather, through four of its eight home games on the schedule, Tampa Bay is 1-3. That lone win came against the 2-5 Bears in Week 2, and even that proved more difficult than it should’ve been. And since then, the Bucs have lost three home games in a row.

“You don’t want to lose at all, especially at home,” wide receiver Mike Evans said after Sunday’s 16-13 loss to Atlanta. “I think all our losses have been at home. We’ve got to do a better job of protecting our home field.”

Evans is right. The 3-3 Bucs have seen all three of their losses come at Raymond James Stadium and they’re 2-0 on the road with wins at Minnesota and New Orleans. Does that bode well for the next couple of weeks as the team heads to Buffalo and then Houston? Maybe, maybe not.

But one thing is for sure: The Bucs need to get things right and play better football in their final four home games of the season. Otherwise, they can say goodbye to any hopes of a third straight NFC South title and fourth straight playoff appearance.

It’s Been Tough Sledding For Tampa Bay At Home Thus Far

Eagles DT Fletcher Cox and Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

What has been the root of the Bucs’ home struggles in 2023? This isn’t about visiting fans filling the lower bowl (though that certainly isn’t ideal). It’s more about Tampa Bay being an average-at-best, inconsistent football team so far this season. It’s also the fact that the home schedule has been considerably more difficult than the road slate up to this point.

The Bucs have lost to the 5-1 Eagles, 5-2 Lions and 4-3 Falcons at Raymond James Stadium this season. They’ve beaten the 2-4 Vikings and 3-4 Saints on the road. So it’s fair to note that the tougher games at home have led to a tougher record. But it’s also about the way the team has played at home.

Against Philadelphia, Tampa Bay wasn’t competitive in a 25-11 loss. The offense gave the fans little to cheer about. That can be said about the 20-6 loss to the Lions in Week 6, too. And it can apply to the Week 7 loss to the Falcons, though the pre-snap penalties and overall lack of discipline was perhaps the most concerning aspect of that game. Pre-snap penalties are never good, but they’re at least more understandable on the road, where environments can be hostile. They can’t happen when it’s your home crowd surrounding you.

Bucs’ Home Schedule Lightens Up Down The Stretch

If there’s good news for the Bucs, it’s that the home schedule is a little lighter the rest of the way. After away games against the Bills and Texans, they come back home to host the 2-4 Titans on Nov. 12. The next home game is Dec. 3 against the 0-6 Panthers. The lone home game remaining that the Bucs likely won’t be favorites in comes on Christmas Eve, when the 5-2 Jaguars come to town.

Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

But a week later on New Year’s Eve, the Saints come to Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay already did the hard part in beating New Orleans at the Superdome in Week 4. If it’s going to be the team it set out to be at the beginning of the year, it needs to be winning that return game in Week 17 against the Saints.

Where all of this will matter is in the final standings. The Bucs are presumably going to need 8-10 wins to capture the NFC South crown again. They’re only at three so far after letting a big opportunity slip away against the Falcons. So in those four remaining home games, they’re likely going to need to win at least three. Where that leaves them is needing two to four more wins on the road, taking games from the likes of the Texans, Colts, Packers, Falcons and/or Panthers.

It’s still going to be a tall task for Tampa Bay. But that’s what makes Sunday’s loss in a winnable game — and the overall poor start at home — so disappointing. Bucs fans aren’t getting what they’re paying for right now, and Todd Bowles and his team may be the ones who will pay for that by season’s end.