Top-to-bottom the 2022 Bucs roster is one of the best in the NFL. Credit where credit is due to Jason Licht and his team for assembling an amazing team. That does not mean that the roster is perfect. No roster is.

And while it is both reasonable and fun to look at the collection of talent on the Bucs and assume the team has already punched their ticket to the NFC Championship Game if not the Super Bowl, let’s take off the pewter-colored glasses for a moment. Specific areas of the Bucs have legitimate question marks that could lead to a less-than-dominant season.

Let’s take a look at the different position rooms that still have lingering questions and rate the probability of the worst-case scenario.

What If Brady’s Age Catches Up With Him?

I understand that any inference of the above question immediately means I am persona-non-grata in Tampa Bay so thankfully I live somewhere else. But the reality is Tom Brady is doing something that hasn’t really been done in sports since the days of Gordy Howe in hockey. And so, the question of whether he may lose his fight with Father-Time is at least warranted.

What it could look like is similar to Peyton Manning’s final year with the Broncos. Reduced arm strength necessitating a change in offensive scheme. Brady is still able to use his premium processing and understanding of defenses to make good decisions in an offense that favors quick, up-tempo passing. Think 2019-2020 Drew Brees.

Likelihood: Extremely Unlikely

Considering we have video of him launching 55-yard bombs in practice just a couple of days ago, I think it’s safe to say this one is a low-probability outcome.

Brady throwing 55 yard BOMBS to Mike Evans after practice. Brady threw 25 of these FIFTY YARD BOMBS in pads and 25 without pads. From what I counted.
Tom Brady’s arm is possibly better then ever, no where near dead. At age 45!! Unbelievable. #GoBucs
(More video below) ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/AKTYFTp9vM

— pirate4life (@Pirate4life_) August 9, 2022

What If The Interior O-Line Is Below Average?

Now this one is much more in the realm of “reasonable.” No starting group had more turnover this year than the offensive line. All three interior spots will be manned by new players to start the season. While it is appropriate for us to assume that right guard should be okay due to the high-level of play Shaq Mason has displayed over the past several years, the other two spots are legitimate wild cards.

Bucs LG Luke Goedeke – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Left guard is an open four-way competition between veteran Aaron Stinnie, rookie Luke Goedeke, Brandon Walton and Swiss army knife Nick Leverette. Between the three of them they have logged a combined 418 snaps of professional regular and postseason play. No one can definitively say that it is a lock that the Bucs will get average-to-good play from that position.

In all three seasons he has logged snaps, Stinnie has produced slightly below-average play per Pro Football Focus. However, he knows the system and played adequately in place of an injured Alex Cappa during the team’s post-season run to the Super Bowl in 2020. Goedeke is not only a rookie, but he is making a position switch. Playing mostly tackle at Central Michigan, he is learning the intricacies of the guard position. Still, the Bucs used some draft capital to trade back up into the second-round to select the self-described “glass-eater.” He has the physical tools to be a star. But most offensive linemen struggle in their first couple of years. Not everyone is Tristan Wirfs.

And the center spot looks to have even less experience. Leverett is also competing to be the starting center while Ryan Jensen is laid up with a knee injury. He is competing with second-year draft pick Robert Hainsey. In extremely limited action last year Hainsey showed promise. And as a former Day 2 pick the Bucs selected him to be an eventual starter. However, the team had the option to make him the presumptive starter this past off-season but opted to re-sign Jensen. This signals they weren’t completely ready for him to step into a starting role.

Likelihood: Very Possible

Sixty percent of the starting group will be new. The odds that all three new starters are average or above is remote. The most likely scenario is that at least one player is good and at least one player is below-average. Combined with the overall good-to-elite play of the tackles the line will still be good enough to help the team reach a Super Bowl. After all, the Bengals did it with virtually no good players last year.

What if Joe Tryon-Shoyinka Does Not Take A Big Step Forward In Year Two?

The Bucs let outside linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul go in free agency in part because they were confident that last year’s first-round draft pick Tryon-Shoyinka was ready to take over the starting role. JTS flashed his potential at times last year enroute to a four-sack season. However, he was hardly consistent and still had a sub-10% pressure rate.  While he has the requisite athleticism to make a large jump in year two it is hardly a guarantee. Maxx Crosby, Rashan Gary, Randy Gregory, and Trey Hendrickson all needed more than two seasons to ascend to quality edge players. That very well could be a path that Tryon-Shoyinka takes.

If this happens the depth behind him is limited. Anthony Nelson is more of a run-defending edge with a limited ceiling. While he did set a career-high in sacks last year, most of those were hustle-sacks or schemed up. He is inconsistent at best as a pass rusher. Behind Nelson the depth is situational or unproven at best.

Likelihood: Probable

While JTS may not ascend to a 10-sack edge rusher in year two, the Bucs defense does not need him to in order to be successful. If he can simply be a 12% pressure guy it should translate into a 6-8 sack season with a small lift in consistency. If he can combine that with an even adequate run defense it should be enough opposite Shaq Barrett to create a good edge rush. Add in the possibility of an elite interior pass rush and you have the pressure package Todd Bowles wants to make his defense successful.

But even if JTS is the same player as last year it should be an overall net gain for the defense. Pierre-Paul logged more snaps than Tryon-Shoyinka despite playing at an inferior level due to injury. Just taking up those JPP snaps from last year should be an improvement for the Bucs.

But speaking of Tampa Bay’s interior pass rush…

What If The Bucs Additions On The Interior Don’t Pan Out?

Bucs DT Akiem Hicks – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Akiem Hicks is a monster talent … when healthy. Logan Hall has potential to be a good interior pass rusher. However, it is still at this point potential.  Each of these additions could bolster a group that includes an elite talent in Vita Vea and good depth in Will Gholston and Rakeem Nunez-Roches and Pat O’Connor. But Hicks and Hall do make up a lynchpin of sorts. Without those two occupying that second-level of talent behind Vea and ahead of Gholston this unit because much more adequate than dominant.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Could Hicks deal with injuries throughout the season and not be a meaningful contributor? Yes. Could Hall not show enough of his talent to be considered a solid rotational pass-rusher? Absolutely. However, the odds both of those things happening simultaneously is rather unlikely. The Bucs should get enough out of each of them to layer onto the unit and get improved play from last year.

What If The Bucs Linebacker Play Slips?

Even during an injury-plagued season, Lavonte David still posted a respectable season. However, Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds will be quick to point out that while his season was solid, it was also devoid of splash-plays. Add in the fact that Devin White largely disappointed against lofty expectations last year and you have a linebacking core that left many people feeling wanting last year. Objectively, while David has been one of the five to ten best linebackers in the game over the past ten seasons, he is also on the wrong side of thirty at a position that has a steep cliff. And while White has all of the physical gifts in the world, outside of a three-game sample size in the 2020 playoffs he still has yet to put it all together.

Likelihood: Possible

The ingredients are there with these two for a whole slew of outcomes. In one universe David is fully recovered from his foot injury last year, and continues his high floor play with the splash plays added back in. Meanwhile, White finally marries his physical gifts with a better understanding of coverage and ascends into a Fred Warner stratosphere of play. But in another universe…a very possible universe…David continues to be on the downslope of his career. And while his play doesn’t evaporate, it does erode. Or the injury bug continues to plague him. Next to him White continues to be an untargeted missile that ends up out of position too much. And this linebacking duo holds the Bucs defense back from being a top-ten unit.

What If The Bucs Secondary Struggles?

Bucs CBs Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis III – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Carlton Davis III just cemented himself as a legitimate number one corner in the league. Antoine Winfield, Jr. is on the verge of super-stardom and coming off of a Pro Bowl season. But beyond those two there are legitimate questions with almost every member of the secondary.

The team’s two big free agent additions, Logan Ryan and Keanu Neal, were both acquired on one-year, veteran minimum deals. Mike Edwards, who is penciled in as the starter across from Winfield has never been a full-year starter. Cornerback Jamel Dean has struggled to stay healthy. And fellow cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting is coming off of a disappointing season.

Rookie cornerback Zyon McCollum, while physically imposing, was still available in the fifth-round of the NFL draft for a reason. Questions abound with this unit. There is a version of the 2022 season where this group can never quite put things together and struggle more weeks than not.

Likelihood: Possible

The bottom-line when it comes to secondary play, is that is very volatile from year-to-year. Don’t believe me? Go check out the grading for the top corners in the NFL. Jalen Ramsey’s PFF grades have varied by almost 20 points over his six-year career. Jaire Alexander is almost the same over his four years. Marshon Lattimore is the same story (thirty points actually!).

So, it is reasonable to expect that not every player on this unit will play at their high-water mark. It is reasonable to expect some of them to play below their career average. But this is why it is so important to have multiple darts to throw at the board with secondaries. And Jason Licht has certainly done that. Look at how many players I referenced when discussing this group. Eight! Eight players who figure into the equation. And that doesn’t count Ross Cockrell and Dee Delaney who played meaningful snaps for last year’s Bucs team that made it to the NFC Divisional round.

Yes, this unit in its original iteration may struggle. But there is enough depth that the struggling parts can be swapped out with quality depth players. The question will come down to whether head coach Todd Bowles is willing to make those personnel changes in the interest of getting the best unit out there for this year. Even if the unit struggles the pass rush should still be good enough when coupled with Bowles’ creative mind to make the defense good enough to get this team back into the playoffs for a third consecutive year.

Will Any Or All Of These Questions Derail The Bucs Season?

The only one of these questions that really can knock the Bucs off of being one of the best teams in the NFC and a legitimate Super Bowl contender is the one about Brady. But given that it is the least likely the overall outlook for the team should continue to be positive. Even if more than one of these questions come to pass the team has enough depth throughout the rest of the roster it should be able to whether the storm.