After missing the playoffs in every season from 2008-2019, the Bucs have played postseason football four years in a row. Of course, they made it in 2020 as a Wild Card team and made a run to win their second-ever Super Bowl. And in the three years since, Tampa Bay has won back-to-back-to-back NFC South titles. That’s good for the NFC’s longest active streak of playoff appearances.

As they prepare for the 2024 season, though, similar doubts have emerged from the national media and oddsmakers about their chances of returning to the playoffs for a fifth straight year. They’re widely viewed as the most vulnerable defending division champion, largely due to the Falcons’ addition of quarterback Kirk Cousins. Tampa Bay’s last two division title wins have come down to Week 17 and Week 18, respectively, so it’s not as if Todd Bowles’ team has run away with it. Atlanta is sure to be a threat, as is New Orleans — because they’re always in the mix.

But the Bucs have done well to keep their key pieces intact this offseason, re-signing Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. while adding Jordan Whitehead and a promising rookie class. The culture change in Tampa Bay since 2019 can’t be overstated, either. Whereas losing was once ingrained in the culture, this has turned into a team with a winning mentality over the last four years.

So what in-house shortcomings could keep the Bucs from making the playoffs once again? Pro Football Focus’ Gordon McGuinness recently tried his hand at naming one reason each team in the NFC could miss the playoffs in 2024. What was the potential reason chosen for Tampa Bay?

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: USA Today

“The defense fails to generate enough pressure off the edge.”

Here’s what McGuinness had to say:

“The Buccaneers had just one player record 40 or more total pressures in the regular season in 2023, and that was Shaquil Barrett, whom the team released this offseason.

The Bucs’ starting edge defenders are currently slated to be Yaya Diaby and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, who wouldn’t have ranked among the top 30 edge defenders in regular-season QB pressures even if you combined their output.”

Pass Rush Remains One Of Bucs’ Biggest Questions

Bucs fans aren’t going to have many arguments against this being a potential concern, as the team’s four-man pass rush remains a significant point of uncertainty heading into the new season. It’s between that and the questions/youth on the interior of the offensive line.

Alabama OLB Chris Braswell – Photo by: USA Today

As PFF’s Gordon McGuinness points out, Tampa Bay’s only player with more than 40 total pressures last year was Shaq Barrett — and he’s now a Miami Dolphin.

The Bucs will hope that last year’s leading sacked YaYa Diaby can improve his pass rush win rate and reach double-digit sacks. But even more than that, the team has to hope that some combination of Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Anthony Nelson, Randy Gregory, Chris Braswell, Markees Watts and Jose Ramirez can make enough strides to keep the four-man rush from being a concern all season.

Todd Bowles will always get creative with generating pressure on the quarterback, but his defenses — especially in Tampa Bay — have been at their best when they’ve gotten production off the edge. The combination of Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul was so key in the Bucs’ Super Bowl season, but the edge rushers haven’t produced at that same level since.

Can Tryon-Shoyinka finally live up to his first-round draft status in Year 4? Can Nelson be more than a rotational edge defender? Will Gregory stay healthy and produce? Might Braswell make an early impact as a rookie? Could we see Watts or Ramirez emerge as true, consistent threats?

Unless the answer to one or more of those questions is yes, it’s fair to wonder whether a lack of pressure off the edge could end up costing the Bucs their playoff streak in 2024.