If you were operating within realism, the Bucs hitting their early bye week at 3-1 was the best-case scenario as soon as the 2023 schedule came out. The Monday Night Football matchup against the Eagles in Week 3 was always likely to be a loss, but Tampa Bay beating Minnesota, Chicago and New Orleans in Weeks 1, 2 and 4 was within reason.

Sure enough, the Bucs won those three games and entered their Week 5 bye atop the NFC South with a 3-1 record. Now, coming out of the week off, Todd Bowles and Co. return to Raymond James Stadium this Sunday afternoon for a big-time matchup against the 4-1, NFC North-leading Detroit Lions.

Tampa Bay leads the division by a half-game after the Saints and Falcons won in Week 5. A victory would help the Bucs maintain their division lead, plus it would serve as a statement to the rest of the league, as the Lions look to be a real contender in 2023.

This game also brings an extra bit of significance for Buccaneer fans, even outside of the fact that it was flexed to a 4:25 p.m. kickoff as part of a national doubleheader. It’s the throwback game for Tampa Bay, which will involve the team wearing its creamsicle jerseys and Bucco Bruce helmets for the first time since 2012. The atmosphere at Ray Jay is sure to be lively for what may prove to be a crucial game in the NFC playoff picture by the end of the season.

The Last Time…

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs and Lions were very different teams the last time they met. That was in 2020, when Tampa Bay went to Detroit and rolled to a 47-7 victory. That earned the franchise its first playoff appearance since 2007, and it was the third of eight straight wins to wrap up that season. Of course, the eighth of those consecutive victories was in Super Bowl LV. For Detroit, that was the 10th of its 11 losses on the year.

Tampa Bay went up 34-0 by halftime of that game, with Tom Brady throwing for 348 yards and four touchdowns to earn himself an early end to the day. Mike Evans caught 10 passes for 181 yards and two scores, while Rob Gronkowski caught touchdowns from both Brady and backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Matthew Stafford exited the game early for the Lions, who ended up playing both David Blough and Chase Daniel throughout the remainder of the game.

The Lions have a 31-28 edge in the all-time series, though the Bucs have a 1-0 lead in the playoffs and a 3-2 record in the last five meetings between the two teams.

How The Bucs And Lions Are Trending

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield

The Bucs seemed to put a lot together the last time they were in action, with the offense scoring a season-high 26 points and the defense holding the Saints out of the end zone entirely in a 26-9 win. It was Tampa Bay’s third straight win over New Orleans, and it sent the team to the top of the NFC South.

Baker Mayfield is playing some really good football for his new team, having thrown for 882 yards and seven touchdowns to just two interceptions in four games this season, with Mike Evans (337 yards, three touchdowns) being his No. 1 target. The Buccaneer defense has been stellar, playing its part in the team’s plus-five turnover margin. This is a Bucs team that has begun to generate some buzz due to a 3-1 start that came after many predicted a bottom-five performance this season and the subsequent Top 5 pick that comes with it.

Speaking of buzz, though, there are few teams with as much buzz as the Lions right now. They finished 2022 on a strong note, nearly making the playoffs for the first time since 2016 while posting a 9-8 record. This year, Detroit’s rise under head coach Dan Campbell has only continued. Jared Goff is playing the best ball of his career while David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds and Sam LaPorta have all been key parts of an offense averaging 29.6 points per game, which ranks fourth in the league.

The Lions are off to a 4-1 start this year. They first announced their presence to the league by beating the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on opening night of the season. Then, after a narrow overtime loss to the Seahawks in Week 2, Detroit has won its last three games, beating Atlanta, Green Bay (on the road in prime time action) and Carolina in the last three weeks. It’s still early in the season, but the Lions and Bucs currently line up as the No. 3 and No. 4 seed in the NFC, respectively. That means this game could have some serious playoff implications down the line.

Detroit is currently a three-point road favorite (per mybookie.ag), with the Over/Under set at 44.

What Might Decide This Bucs-Lions Matchup?

Bucs DT Vita Vea – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Perhaps more than anyone, the Bucs defense is going to decide the outcome of this game. The Lions have been prolific on offense so far in 2023, with Jared Goff having completed 69.8% of his passes for 1,265 yards and nine touchdowns to three interceptions in the first five games. He is currently Pro Football Focus’ top-graded quarterback, and it’ll be a tall task for Tampa Bay’s secondary to contain him. The pass rush will have to get after him and make him uncomfortable as well.

Goff isn’t the only one Todd Bowles‘ defense will need to contain. Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen) may be in danger of missing a second straight game, as is rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs. But Josh Reynolds has been a threat this season, evidenced by his 24 catches for 291 yards and three touchdowns (and his 18.3 yards per catch average). Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has made an instant impact, too, and Jameson Williams is back in the mix after his suspension was reduced.

The big key for the Tampa Bay defense, though, will be stopping David Montgomery. The Lions’ top rushing threat has 371 yards and six touchdowns on 88 carries (4.2 avg.) this season, and making sure he doesn’t run all over them the way the Eagles did will be key for the Bucs as they look to avoid a track meet/shootout type of game that would favor Detroit. It’ll be important for the likes of Vita Vea, Logan Hall, Calijah Kancey (should he play), Lavonte David and Devin White to shore up the middle of the defense.

Baker Mayfield is likely to face pressure from the dominant Aidan Hutchinson, who will be a tough test for right tackle Luke Goedeke, as well as the rest of the Detroit defense. That means Tampa Bay will need to get its rushing attack and quick game going. Rachaad White needs to run the way he did in Weeks 2 and 4, plus he’ll need to be a factor in the passing game like he was last time out against New Orleans. Chris Godwin may see some targets early and often, while Mike Evans (if healthy) will need to keep things moving with some chunk plays.

Ultimately, the formula for the Bucs to win this game is similar to the one they used in their three wins to start the season. The defense will need to carry the load and keep the game in the 10s and 20s rather than allowing it to reach the 30s. Tampa Bay will have a hard time keeping up if the Detroit offense really gets going, but if Goff and Co. are kept in check, Dave Canales‘ offense may just do enough to send the fans home happy on creamsicle day.

Key Players to Watch

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo By: Cliff Welch P/R

Chris Godwin might be a big factor in this game for Tampa Bay’s offense. He’s coming off his most productive game of the season so far, as he caught eight of his 11 targets against the Saints for a season-high 114 yards and 14.3 yards per catch. When Mike Evans exited the game in the first half, Godwin became the catalyst for the offense’s success over the final 30 minutes.

Big catches of 32 and 42 yards set up scores for the Bucs down the stretch. He also leads the team with 14 first downs and will need to continue being a chain-mover against Detroit on Sunday, as that would help keep the Lions’ offense on the sideline.

As important as the run defense will be for Tampa Bay as it looks to slow down David Montgomery, finding an answer for rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be paramount. Whether Todd Bowles relies on a zone scheme or taps Christian Izien, Antoine Winfield Jr., Ryan Neal or one of his linebackers to match up with the 6-foot-3, 245-pound LaPorta, that decision is going to make a big difference in the game one way or the other.

Lions WR Josh Reynolds and QB Jared Goff – Photo by: USA Today

As many weapons as there are on the Detroit offense, the unit runs through quarterback Jared Goff. After being exiled to the Motor City by the Rams when they traded for Matthew Stafford a couple of years ago, Goff has rediscovered what made him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 Draft.

Down the stretch in 2022, he got into a groove. So far in 2023, he’s been on another level. He’ll turn 29 on Saturday, and he’s currently doing the best work of his career. If he gets comfortable against Tampa Bay on Sunday, it may be a long day for the Buccaneer secondary.

On the Lions’ defense, there’s no doubt that Aidan Hutchinson is the No. 1 guy to watch. The No. 2 overall pick in last year’s draft, he is an absolute game-wrecker and has been an impact player for Detroit from the jump.

As a rookie, the 6-foot-7, 268-pounder tallied 9.5 sacks and three interceptions from his defensive end spot. And through five games this year, he already has 4.5 sacks and another interception. He’ll give Bucs right tackle Luke Goedeke some fits on Sunday, and Tampa Bay will just have to hope that Goedeke is up to the task and/or hope Hutchinson’s big plays don’t do too much damage.

Bucs vs. Lions Game Information

When: Sunday, Oct. 15
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: FOX – Adam Amin (Play by Play), Daryl Johnston (Analyst), Pam Oliver (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst)