The events of Week 10 were big for the Bucs as they look to stay alive for a third straight NFC South title. Their win over the Titans combined with losses by the Saints and Falcons put them within a half-game of the top spot in the division.

But, unsurprisingly, Tampa Bay failed to close the gap in Week 11. The Bucs entered their game with the 49ers as 13.5-point underdogs and went on to lose 27-14. However, while they didn’t gain ground in the division race, they also didn’t lose much.

Bucs DT Vita Vea and Saints QB Derek Carr – Photo by: USA Today

The division-leading Saints and the Falcons were both on their bye weeks in Week 11, meaning the Bucs only lost a half-game in the standings with their loss to the 49ers.

Tampa Bay is now a full game back of New Orleans and sits even with Atlanta  So while the loss to San Francisco will not have felt good for anyone in the Tampa Bay locker room, everything is still set up for a tight NFC South race down the stretch.

NFC South Standings Through Week 11:

New Orleans Saints 5-5 (1-1 in the NFC South)
Atlanta Falcons 4-6 (2-0 in the NFC South)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-6 (1-1 in the NFC South)
Carolina Panthers 1-9 (0-2 in the NFC South)

Bucs’ Quest For A Three-Peat Will Come Down To Their Divisional Games

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

This was the case before their loss to the 49ers and it’s still the case after: The Bucs’ hopes for a third straight NFC South title will come down to the big divisional games left on the schedule.

Tampa Bay is 1-1 in NFC South play, having beaten New Orleans in Week 4 before losing to Atlanta in Week 7. With just one game separating the top three teams, everything is bound to be decided by what happens in the remaining head-to-head matchups.

The Bucs still have two games against the last-place Panthers, plus they have a road game against the Falcons and a home matchup with the Saints. What happens in those games will ultimately decide the fate of Todd Bowles and his team this season. At the same time, they need to take care of business in their other winnable games as well.

A win over the Colts next week would go a long way for the Bucs, as the Saints and Falcons meet in Atlanta at the same time. One of those teams will obviously lose (unless there’s a tie), giving Tampa Bay an opening to make some moves in the standings.

Remaining Schedules For The NFC South:

Saints: at ATL, vs. DET, vs. CAR, vs. NYG, at LAR, at TB, vs. ATL

Falcons: vs. NO, at NYJ, vs. TB, at CAR, vs. IND, at CHI, at NO

Bucs: at IND, vs. CAR, at ATL, at GB, vs. JAX, vs. NO, at CAR

Panthers: at TEN, at TB, at NO, vs. ATL, vs. GB, at JAX, vs. TB

The NFC South Now Looks Like The Bucs’ Only Path To The Playoffs

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by USA Today

As recently as a few weeks ago, it actually looked like the NFC Wild Card picture would be wide open over the season’s final couple of months. Even as Tampa Bay was in the middle of a four-game losing streak, both the NFC South title and the No. 7 seed in the NFC seemed to be there for the taking if the team could get right.

That’s no longer the case. The Bucs, Falcons and Packers are all 4-6 and “in the hunt,” while the Commanders are 4-7 and outside of being “in the hunt.” But these teams have a long road ahead if they want to capture that No. 7 seed, and that’s because the Vikings have caught fire and separated themselves as the clear favorite to earn that final Wild Card spot behind the Seahawks and Cowboys. Heading into a Sunday night game against Denver, Minnesota has won five straight to go from 1-4 to 6-4.

So, the Bucs (along with the other “in the hunt” teams) have some distance to cover. The Vikings haven’t missed a beat without Kirk Cousins, with Josh Dobbs stepping in and stepping up in his place. Plus, Minnesota has stud wide receiver Justin Jefferson on his way back from injury in the coming weeks.

The way things stand heading into Thanksgiving Week, the only path to a fourth straight playoff appearance for the Bucs is by winning their division. And against all odds, they’ll be right in the thick of it over the final seven games.