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Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds answers your questions from the @PewterReport Twitter account each week in the Bucs Mailbag. Submit your question to the Bucs Mailbag each week via Twitter using the hashtag #PRMailbag.  Here are the Bucs questions we chose to answer for this week’s edition.

QUESTION: Do you think Antoine Winfield Jr has a shot at winning Defensive Player of The Year?

Bucs FS Antoine WInfield Jr. and Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo by: USA Today

ANSWER: In the history of the AP Defensive Player of the Year, which began in 1971, there have only been five safeties that have won the award, including Miami strong safety Dick Anderson (1973), Seattle strong safety Kenny Easley (1984), Baltimore free safety Ed Reed (2004), Indianapolis strong safety Bob Sanders (2007), Pittsburgh strong safety Troy Polamalu (2010). Only one, Reed, was a true free safety.

Too often the DPOTY honor goes to a linebacker or defensive lineman, typically a pass rusher, such as San Francisco’s Nick Bosa last year, or Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt the year prior. Former Houston defensive end J.J. Watt won the award three times (2012, 2014, 2015), as did Los Angeles defensive tackle Aaron Donald (2017, 2018, 2020).

The most recent safety to win it was Polamalu back in 2010, so it would take a huge upset for Bucs free safety Antoine Winfield Jr. to win it in my opinion.

Here is how Winfield’s numbers stack up against the previous DPOTY winners who played safety:

Dick Anderson: 8 INTs, 2 TDs
Kenny Easley: 10 INTs, 2 TDs, FR
Ed Reed: 78 tackles, 6 TFLs, 17 PBUs, 9 INTs, 3 FFs, 2 FRs, 2 TDs
Bob Sanders: 97 tackles, 6 TFLs, 3.5 sacks, 6 PBUs, 2 INTs, FR
Troy Polamalu: 63 tackles, 6 TFLs, 11 PBUs, 7 INTs, TD, sack, FR
Antoine Winfield Jr.: 110 tackles, 5 TFLs, 12 PBUs, 3 INTs, 5 sacks, 5 FFs, 4 FRs
 
As you can see, every safety who won DPOTY had at least seven interceptions with the exception of Sanders, who had just two in 2007. Yet Winfield’s stats are much more well rounded in terms of the number of forced fumbles and fumble recoveries, and Winfield has had more sacks and tackles than any prior safety who has won the honor – with two games left to play.

The other leading contenders for DPOTY this season include T.J. Watt and a pair of other safeties in Baltimore’s Kyle Hamilton and Atlanta’s Jessie Bates III:

Pittsburgh OLB T.J. Watt: 58 tackles, 16 TFLs, 8 PBUs, 4 FFs, 3 FRs, INT, TD
Baltimore SS Kyle Hamilton: 81 tackles, 10 TFLs, 13 PBUs, 4 INTs, 3 sacks, TD, FF
Atlanta FS Jessie Bates III: 117 tackles, 2 TFLs, 11 PBUs, 6 INTs, 3 FFs, TD
Tampa Bay FS Antoine Winfield Jr.: 110 tackles, 5 TFLs, 12 PBUs, 3 INTs, 5 sacks, 5 FFs, 4 FRs
 
I might be biased because I cover Winfield on a weekly basis, but he’s such a consistent playmaker that he deserves to win the Defensive Player of the Year award this season in my opinion. If he does, he becomes the fourth Buccaneer in team history to do it, joining Lee Roy Selmon (1979), Warren Sapp (1999) and Derrick Brooks (2002).

QUESTION: What’s the most shocking thing about the Bucs turnaround from 4-7 to on the cusp of a division title?

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANSWER: I think the fact that the Bucs’ running game has come on so strong over the past five games is quite shocking. For most of the year Tampa Bay’s ground game was in the bottom three in the league and the team had just two 100-yard rushing games out of the first nine games of the season.

But in the last five weeks the Bucs have had three 100-yard rushing days, in addition to a 99-yard outing at Green Bay. Tampa Bay has averaged 114 yards per game over the last five weeks, in which the team has a 4-1 record. That average over the last five games would place the Bucs’ ground game in the Top 13 during that span.

Yet because of so many weeks where the Bucs struggled to run the ball well early in the year, Tampa Bay’s ground game still ranks 30th in the league, averaging 89.3 yards per game over the course of the 2023 season. Still, it’s a big increase from a year ago when the Bucs averaged a league-worst 75.6 yards per game.

Because of the improved run game, Tampa Bay’s offense has become more balanced and less predictable, and scoring is up as a result. The Bucs have scored no fewer than 20 points in any of the last five games and are averaging 26.8 points per game over that span. That’s helped Tampa Bay average 21.7 points per game over the course of the season, which is up from 18.2 points per game a year ago.

QUESTION: How likely is Baker Mayfield to return to the Bucs if any combination of Todd Bowles/Dave Canales/Mike Evans were to leave?

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANSWER: That’s a really good question. I don’t know the answer because there are multiple proposed variables involving head coach Todd Bowles, offensive coordinator Dave Canales and wide receiver Mike Evans and different combinations of those men either coming or going. Ultimately, I know Baker Mayfield wants to be a starting quarterback somewhere and wants to get paid like one.

That can certainly happen in Tampa Bay – even if Bowles and Canales were fired at the end of the season and Evans were to not be re-signed and wound up elsewhere. Bucs general manager Jason Licht is fond enough of Mayfield to have him stay on as Tampa Bay’s quarterback in 2024. Yet, in this scenario I just laid out, Bowles’ replacement as the Bucs head coach would have to sign on to keeping Mayfield as well.

If Canales were to leave to become a head coach elsewhere this offseason would Mayfield follow because he’s been such a great fit in his scheme? That’s an interesting scenario to ponder.

Yet if Bowles and Evans were to stay in Tampa bay that would surely help the Bucs’ cause in keeping Mayfield.

It’s an interesting query with two games remaining. A lot can happen over the next two weeks and the outcome could cause a ripple effect that affects a lot of folks in red and pewter. It will be fascinating to watch the rest of the 2023 season play out.

QUESTION: How would you rank the Bucs’ needs at this moment? I think QB can be moved down and maybe DB help moves up due to our injury history there – along with O-Line and D-Line.

Bucs WR Mike Evans and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANSWER: If Baker Mayfield is re-signed that takes care of the biggest need any team faces, which is who is starting at quarterback. Mayfield has a shot at hitting 4,000 passing yards this season, and has completed 64.3% of his passes with 26 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. He’s proven to be a difference-maker and has been among the league’s top passers this season.

By comparison, Tom Brady passed for more yards last year (4,694) and had a higher completion percentage (66.8%), but had 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions in his final season in Tampa Bay. Mayfield has two more games to go in terms of increasing his season TD total, which is already higher than Brady’s was a year ago.

The Bucs will certainly bring Antoine Winfield Jr. back next year either on the franchise tag or a long-term contract extension. But Tampa Bay needs to find another playmaking, starting-caliber strong safety to replace Ryan Neal. That’s a pressing need.

And despite the fact that Carlton Davis III, Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum are all under contract next year, the Bucs could use another starting-caliber cornerback to eventually start opposite McCollum and replace Davis and/or Dean, as neither can stay healthy.

The Bucs could also use an upgrade at left guard and at center, in addition to finding an upgrade at outside linebacker opposite YaYa Diaby. Age and injury have caught up with Shaq Barrett, and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka just isn’t a consistent enough pass rusher to start anymore.

QUESTION: Seeing the snap count for Carlton Davis III be drastically low, does that mean Zyon McCollum has replaced him as the starter? Before getting injured it seemed like he was making plays and playing well. Davis seemed to play better than McCollum, at the very least as a tackler.

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANSWER: Carlton Davis III played 10 snaps against Jacksonville and then suffered a concussion while making a tackle. Zyon McCollum replaced him in the lineup, as he has done multiple times this season. In fact, Davis has missed four starts and left three other games due to injury.

It’s been the same story for Jamel Dean, who also has missed four starts due to injury and been replaced in two other games by McCollum after getting banged up. McCollum has played in all 15 games this year with eight starts – either for the injured Davis or Dean – this year. In fact, McCollum has now logged more defensive snaps (697) than either Davis (663) or Dean (589) has in 2023.

McCollum has also played better than the Bucs’ oft-injured, high-priced cornerbacks. Despite the fact that McCollum has a lower Pro Football Focus grade (49.4), he’s allowed fewer yards and touchdowns than either Dean (64.3) or Davis (55.2), while also allowing a lower completion percentage this season. McCollum is also tied with Davis with nine pass breakups, which ranks second in Tampa Bay.

Zyon McCollum: 697 snaps – 54.7% completion percentage allowed – 486 yards allowed, 2 TDs allowed, 9 PBUs, 0 INTs
Carlton Davis III: 663 snaps – 68% completion percentage allowed – 776 yards allowed, 5 TDs allowed, 9 PBUs, 2 INTs
Jamel Dean: 589 snaps – 68.4% completion percentage allowed – 560 yards allowed, 5 TDs allowed, 3 PBUs, 0 INTs

One has to wonder if the Bucs decide to move on from Davis, who turns 27 on December 31, and is entering the final year of his contract in 2024. Davis’ cap value next year balloons to $20,517,334, including a base salary of $14 million, according to OverTheCap.com. That’s a lot of money to pay a cornerback who misses an average of four starts per year due to injury.