Bill Belichick has long stressed “The Middle 8,” which refers to the last four minutes of the second quarter and the first four minutes of the third quarter being the most important eight minutes of the game. Well, the Bucs haven’t just been bad over The Middle 8 in recent weeks. They’ve been downright awful over The Middle 30.

It started in Week 6, which saw Tampa Bay give up 27 straight points in the second quarter against New Orleans. That led to a 27-24 deficit at halftime, even after the team went up 17-0 in the first quarter. The Bucs did rally in that game to win the third quarter 7-0 and the fourth 20-0, but there was still a 27-7 run for the Saints in the middle quarters.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

It didn’t get any better in Week 7 when the Bucs hosted the Ravens on Monday Night Football. They went up 10-0, only for Baltimore to go on a 34-0 run between the second and third quarters. That ultimately led to a 41-31 loss, which started the team’s current two-game skid.

Most recently, Tampa Bay was outscored 24-10 over the middle 30 minutes in a 31-26 loss to Atlanta. That was a loss that cost the team a major tiebreaker in the division race, and it largely came down to the second and third quarters. The two teams tied the first quarter 7-7 and the Bucs won the fourth quarter 9-0 in a late comeback attempt.

Over the last three games, Tampa Bay has been outscored 85-24 in the middle quarters. That’s not at all recipe for success, and it’s a concerning trend as the team sits at 4-4 with a couple of tough games ahead before the bye week.

It’s a sign that other teams are making the necessary adjustments after the first quarter and after halftime, and the Bucs really aren’t.

Going cold for two quarters is something that good teams will take advantage of. And the Bucs are about to play the Chiefs and 49ers – the two teams that played in the most recent Super Bowl – with little margin for error the rest of the way if they want to have a chance at an NFC South title four-peat. There’s not even that much room for error when it comes to the Wild Card race, either.

The Bucs won the middle quarters in their first three games – victories over the Commanders and Lions and a loss to the Broncos. They’ve won the middle 30 minutes in just one of their last five games since then.

Bucs Have Started Games Faster Than They Did In 2023

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

As bad as the Bucs have been over the middle two quarters this season, they have managed to start games much faster than they have in a long time.

One of the big blemishes on former offensive coordinator Dave Canales’ resume from last season was the fact that his offense didn’t score one opening-drive touchdown in 19 games. After new offensive coordinator Liam Coen watched his offense fail to score touchdowns on their first three game-opening drives of this season, the trend has been reversed in a big way.

Tampa Bay snapped a 23-game streak (regular season and playoffs) without a first-drive touchdown in Week 4 when Baker Mayfield orchestrated a 10-play, 79-yard drive that took the game’s first 5:16 off the clock. The Bucs didn’t stop there, either, as they stormed out to a 24-0 lead and ultimately beat the Eagles 33-16. Even in that lopsided of a win, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia tied the middle quarters 16-16, but the start was quick enough and the deficit was large enough for Todd Bowles’ team to win comfortably.

The Bucs scored another opening-drive touchdown in Week 5, answering the Falcons’ opening-drive touchdown with one of their own. They went 63 yards in nine plays to tie the game at 7-7. In this one, the second quarter may not have doomed them, but their lack of offense in the third quarter and the rest of the way helped lead to their undoing in a 36-30 overtime loss.

In this most recent three-game run where the middle quarter struggles have plagued them the most, they’ve continued to start fast. And that’s what has made the second- and third-quarter issues even more frustrating.

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

In that win over the Saints, the Bucs scored their third opening-drive touchdown in three weeks and went up 17-0 before that 27-14 run by New Orleans in the middle of the game. The defense stepped up to pitch a second-half shutout and the offense did the rest, leading to a 51-27 win. In this case, the 17-0 lead disappeared, but there was a strong enough finish to compensate for that.

In the 41-31 loss to the Ravens, the Bucs scored another opening-drive touchdown, their fourth straight after going 23 games without one. They went on to take a 10-0 lead, but the 34-0 run over the middle quarters made the gap too large for any sort of legitimate comeback attempt.

Tampa Bay fumbled on its first possession of this past Sunday’s game, leading to a quick Atlanta touchdown. But on its second drive, the offense went on a 70-yard drive in 15 plays and took 8:30 off the clock. The Bucs went up 14-7 from there, but they lost the second quarter 17-10 and went on to lose the third 7-0. And that was that for this game, even when they outscored the Falcons 9-0 in the fourth.

Last year, it was slow starts. That’s been corrected so far in 2024, but now it’s the middle quarters. When it’s not one thing, it’s the other, and Todd Bowles and his staff need to get it all together – fast.