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Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds answers your questions from the @PewterReport Twitter account each week in the Bucs Monday Mailbag. Submit your question to the Bucs Monday Mailbag each week via Twitter using the hashtag #PRMailbag.  Here are the questions we chose to answer for this week’s edition.

QUESTION: Are the Bucs doing their due diligence or is it that no offensive coordinator wants to come here because there’s no QB in place and knowing Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht are on the hot seat? I don’t get why the Bucs don’t fire the entire staff and start over at this point. New QB, new coach, new era.

ANSWER: It’s both. The Bucs have been doing their due diligence, but there is no doubt the team has been turned down by a couple of candidates, including Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken and Cincinnati quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher, who was considered the front-runner at one point.

Bucs QB Kyle Trask – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Whether it’s the questionable quarterback situation with the Bucs only having Kyle Trask under contract heading into free agency or an underwhelming first year with Todd Bowles going 8-9 with Tom Brady in 2022, Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator position does not seem to be in demand right now. Bowles might be on the hot seat entering the 2023 season, but I don’t think that general manager Jason Licht necessarily is.

But Licht needs a whopper of a draft to really help the team in 2023. Tampa Bay is cap-strapped this year and won’t be major players in the free agent market at all. So, the Bucs will need a 2020-type draft, when Licht drafted All-Pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs in the first round and Pro Bowl safety Antoine Winfield Jr. in the second. Tampa Bay needs to draft a couple of impact players and future Pro Bowlers in April – not just a few starters.

As for firing Bowles and the entire staff, that’s just not in the cards this offseason. The Glazers like Bowles, who was made the highest-paid defensive coordinator after the Super Bowl LV win in 2020 and was named Bruce Arians’ successor last March 30. While his 8-9 record in 2022 was disappointing, Bowles and the Bucs did win the NFC South and deliver a home playoff game. The Glazers have given every coach they’ve hired at least two years. Bowles will get the 2023 season to either succeed and improve on last year’s record or run the team into the ground and deliver the team a top 10 pick – and a new head coach – in 2024.

QUESTION: Do the Bucs still have any hope/chance of landing Brian Johnson as offensive coordinator now?

ANSWER: No, the Eagles are expected to elevate quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson to the role of offensive coordinator in 2023. Johnson will replace Shane Steichen as Philadelphia’s play-caller with Steichen expected to be named the new head coach of the Indianapolis Colts. Pewter Report listed Johnson as a possible offensive coordinator candidate on Jan. 19, the day Byron Leftwich was fired by head coach Todd Bowles.

But Johnson, who was Kyle Trask’s quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator at Florida, was never considered for the Bucs’ offensive coordinator job to Pewter Report’s knowledge. Perhaps it was because Philadelphia was likely going to promote Johnson to replace Steichen and Tampa Bay sensed that or knew that from the start.

Or it could have been because Johnson didn’t have any interest in the Tampa Bay offensive coordinator job because Trask is unproven at the NFL level and is the only quarterback under contract. That is one of the major reasons why the Bucs may be having a hard time finding a replacement for Leftwich.

QUESTION: With all these offensive coordinator candidates either staying or signing elsewhere, who else is left?

Rams assistant head coach/TEs coach Thomas Brown – Photo by: USA Today

ANSWER: The Bucs will be having a second interview with Rams tight ends coach and assistant head coach Thomas Brown. He’s also got a second interview lined up with the division rival Panthers. Outside of Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken and Cincinnati quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher turning down the Bucs, I’m not sure which other candidates have been offered the play-calling duties and have turned down Tampa Bay, and which candidates didn’t impress Todd Bowles and Jason Licht.

So outside of Brown and perhaps Seahawks quarterbacks coach David Canales, who also recently interviewed with the Bucs, I’m not sure which other previously interviewed candidates are in the mix. What I do know is that the Bucs are nearing one month since they fired Byron Leftwich and have struggled to find his replacement for what appears to be a myriad of reasons.

Now, it bears mentioning that former Bucs head coach Tony Dungy was not Tampa Bay’s first choice. He was the Bucs’ third choice behind Jimmy Johnson and Steve Spurrier, who were the first two options. In the end, it worked out because Dungy turned the Bucs around and into a perennial playoff contender. He also wound up becoming a Hall of Fame head coach. So we’ll see who the Bucs end up hiring and how that play-caller fares. Maybe the yet-to-be-hired offensive coordinator is worth the wait.

QUESTION: The Bucs offensive coordinator search has been happening for a long time it seems. Why? Is it the uncertainty of job going forward if the staff is fired next year? Or is the candidate they want in one of the teams playing for the Super Bowl? Or something else?

ANSWER: As stated above, the Bucs are in fact having some difficulty finding the right candidate and multiple candidates have turned Tampa Bay down. I also wrote about the Bucs’ challenges in hiring an offensive coordinator on Saturday in an article on PewterReport.com. But I included this question because you asked if the Bucs are waiting on a candidate from one of the Super Bowl teams. I don’t think that’s the case.

Tampa Bay virtually interviewed Cincinnati quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher during the playoffs, so the Bucs could have interviewed anyone from the Chiefs or Eagles staffs earlier in the process. I’m surprised that Eagles quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson didn’t get an interview. But again, perhaps the Bucs got wind that he would be promoted in Philadelphia to replace Shane Steichen, who is expected to be the Colts new head coach.

QUESTION: If the Bucs can’t get someone from outside for the offensive coordinator role, who would they turn to on what’s left of the offense to be a play-caller?

Bucs assistant WRs coach Thad Lewis – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANSWER: The hire will come from outside the organization. The Bucs have already interviewed eight candidates outside the organization, so that’s the direction the team is heading in. Tampa Bay assistant wide receivers coach Thad Lewis is well thought of by both head coach Todd Bowles and former head coach Bruce Arians. But if Lewis was legitimately a viable candidate for the offensive coordinator job, then Byron Leftwich would have been fired mid-season and Lewis would have been considered as an in-season replacement.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt,” Arians said of Lewis. “He’s a former quarterback. He’s extremely bright. Last year [in 2021], I used to make him give me game plans. What would his game plan be? It would be spot on every week. There will be a time very, very soon where he’s calling plays in this league.”

So, the guess here is that it would be Lewis in this scenario, but I think he’s destined to replace Kevin Garver as the wide receivers coach or Clyde Christensen as the quarterbacks coach in 2023. The fact that Garver and running backs coach Todd McNair were fired and Christensen chose retirement over being fired doesn’t leave many in-house options left on the offensive side of the ball if Tampa Bay were to go that route.

QUESTION: You articulated the Glazers’ lack of interest in tanking, stating that they failed the last two times they tried to tank (2009, 2014). In my opinion, the Bucs used sound process tanking with Jason Licht’s regime (2014). In fact, the Bucs did a good enough job rebuilding championship-level talent around Jameis Winston that they attracted Bruce Arians and Tom Brady, thus winning Super Bowl LV. It stands to reason that, increasing the odds of hitting on a solid young QB (and possibly finding a better head coach), another tank job would serve the franchise. My question: What do you think of this framing and, if you ran the Bucs with total authority, would you do a full rebuild?

ANSWER: Well, head coach Raheem Morris and general manager Mark Dominik certainly wouldn’t agree that the tanking in 2009 worked. Both were fired after a 4-12 season in 2011. Lovie Smith wouldn’t think that the tanking worked because he ultimately got fired after the 2015 season. More importantly, Jameis Winston, the first overall pick in 2015, didn’t pan out as the Bucs’ first-rounder. He was the primary reason the Bucs tanked in 2014.

Yes, general manager Jason Licht did build a Super Bowl winner, but it took six years to build a championship team. The Bucs had zero playoff appearances and just one winning record (9-7 in 2016) during that time.

Ex-Bucs QB Josh Freeman – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Here is the list of quarterbacks the Bucs have drafted since 1992: Craig Erickson (fourth round, 1992), Trent Dilfer (first round, 1994), Shaun King (second round, 1999), Chris Simms (third round, 2003), Bruce Gradkowski (fifth round, 2006), Josh Johnson (fifth round, 2008), Josh Freeman (first round, 2009), Mike Glennon (third round, 2013), Jameis Winston (first round, 2015), Kyle Trask (second round, 2021).

That’s 10 drafted quarterbacks over the past three decades and none of them won a Super Bowl in Tampa Bay. Only one of them – King in 1999 – made it to the NFC Championship Game. Only three of them – Dilfer, King and Simms – started a playoff game and their combined record was 2-3. So, drafting a young quarterback and having that passer pan out has been extremely difficult for this franchise. That’s not to say that the Bucs will never find a successful QB in the draft, but there are no guarantees.

If I had the authority to run the Bucs, I would do whatever I could to make the team competitive each year. I’ve seen the Bucs draft eight quarterbacks since I started covering the team in 1995 and none of them have really panned out. The quarterbacks that have been the most successful in Tampa Bay have been veteran free agents like Brad Johnson, Brian Griese, Jeff Garcia and Tom Brady. Johnson and Brady won Super Bowls, and Griese and Garcia won NFC South titles in red and pewter.

So, I would rely on free agent veteran QBs and continue to draft a young passer until I hit on one. This year, I would roll the dice on Baker Mayfield or Jacoby Brissett becoming the next Geno Smith and see what the team has in Trask. Next year, I would definitely try to draft a quarterback when the class is expected to be a bit better and scan the free agent market for a QB upgrade.

QUESTION: If you had to guess now with Kyle Trask and a journeyman QB – over or under seven wins?

ANSWER: Well, if a Tom Brady-led Bucs team went 8-9 this past season it seems difficult to think that Tampa Bay will actually be better in 2023 with worse QB play. Whether it’s Kyle Trask or a journeyman quarterback under center this year, it will be a real challenge to improve on that record.

At the same time, the Bucs offense did not play well around Brady last year. The offensive line disappointed, there were several significant injuries at receiver and along the O-line, the running back situation disappointed and the play-calling was atrocious. So, if Trask or whoever the QB is receives better play from his teammates and better play-calling, there is a slight chance the Bucs offense scores more points. And more points – coupled with a stout defense – could lead to more wins.

But if I had to bet money on an over and under for Tampa Bay’s 2023 win total, I might bet under seven wins right now. We’ll see how many free agents the team re-signs, which veteran QB the Bucs land and how the Bucs fare in the draft first, so I reserve the right to change my mind.