When the Bucs and the Panthers face off later today at Raymond James Stadium most eyes will be on the quarterback manning the home sidelines in Tampa Bay. Tom Brady and the Bucs offense have been a shell of their 2020-2021 selves, and this has led to a lackluster season for a team that sports one half of the seventh-best scoring defense in the league.

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Panthers RB D’Onta Foreman – Photo by: USA Today

However, in my opinion, most eyes need to be on the quarterback for the other team.

The blueprint for both teams in this game seems pretty straight forward. The Bucs are going to most likely hamper their offense’s potential through maddening decision-making in terms of play-calling as well as frustrating execution lapses. They will wind up with 17-23 points. The run game will have a flash or two of a good run but have far more attempts that go for little-to-nothing. Most of the points will occur late in the second half.

On the other side of the ball the gameplan for each team is very straight-forward as well. The Panthers are going to try to establish their running game and control the ball for as much of the day as possible. This has been their blueprint for success over the past seven games.

Over their past four games the Panthers are 3-1. In the three wins they have averaged 45 carries to just 22 passes. In the lone loss Carolina was forced to pass more than they ran (16 runs to 23 passes).

Bucs Need To Make Darnold Win The Game

Bucs OLB Anthony Nelson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

In creating a potent running game Carolina has been able to make de facto starting quarterback Sam Darnold a game manager that can take easy play-action shots to wide open receivers in the most advantageous positions. Even including the lone loss during that stretch, Darnold has thrown for 759 yards on just 88 passing attempts. That comes out to 8.6 yards per attempt, which would rank second in the NFL behind Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa if the number qualified.

Despite the large per pass output, Darnold is being asked to make easy throws. He only has six “big time throws” over those four games according to Pro Football Focus.

These passes are coming largely on deep play-action shots. Nearly half (45%) of Darnold’s pass attempts have come off of a running play fake. And this is where Darnold has been dangerous. His PFF grade on play-action attempts is an extremely impressive 80.7, while that mark drops to a very average 64.9 on straight drop backs. Despite the large per pass output, Darnold is being asked to make easy throws. He only has six “big time throws” over those four games according to PFF.

If the Bucs can set the tone early by limiting the Panthers running game on first and second down, they can force the Panthers to have to rely on Darnold to win the game. And with a career turnover-worthy play rate north of 4%, that bodes well for the Bucs defense to get some turnovers that could flip field position and create additional points that have been hard to come by this season.

Bucs Run Defense Will Need To Play Sound

Bucs NT Vita Vea and LB Lavonte David – Photo by: USA Today

All of that is great in theory, but first thing is first, right? The Bucs are going to have to shut down the Panthers vaunted running game. With running backs Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman leading the way it is incumbent upon Tampa Bay’s defensive linemen Viat Vea, Akiem Hicks, Will Gholston, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Dedrin Senat and Logan Hall to maintain their run gaps/fits and not give easy lanes to be exploited.

They will also need to absorb double teams and help keep linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White clean in order to allow them to play fast and get to the Panthers running backs quickly. If they can do that, they can force the Panthers into third and longs. Third and longs will force Darnold to win without the aid of play-action. If the Bucs can do this they actually have a very good opportunity to win the game, and resultingly the NFC South this afternoon.