It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.

Tampa Bay’s 2024 season came to end on Sunday night with a 23-20 loss to Washington in the NFC Wild Card playoffs. The Bucs offense made a couple of critical mistakes in the fourth quarter, but once again it was Todd Bowles’ defense not being able to get off the field or create a takeaway that doomed the team down the stretch. The Bucs ran just 44 plays on offense compared to the Commanders, who had 69 plays and controlled the clock for 11 more minutes.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Playoff Loss Shows That Bucs Need Killers On Defense

With the outcome of Sunday night’s Wild Card game hanging the balance with the score tied at 20-20 with 4:41 left in regulation, Bucs head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles trusted his defense do something they have rarely been able to do this year.

Get a key stop and prevent a game-winning scoring drive.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Bowles’ defense failed to stop the Falcons offense from kicking a game-tying field goal on the last drive of regulation in Week 5, and failed to stop the game-winning touchdown in overtime in Atlanta. Tampa Bay’s defense also failed to stop Kansas City from getting the game-winning TD in overtime on Monday Night Football a few weeks later. Right before the bye week, the defense failed to get a stop on San Francisco’s game-winning field goal drive.

Only in overtime in Carolina in Week 13 did the defense make a play to stop an opponent from a game-winning score when outside linebacker Anthony Nelson stripped Chuba Hubbard of the ball when the Panthers got in field goal range.

When the Commanders received the ball with 4:41 left, I knew that they would drive down the field and kick the game-winning field goal and that Bowles and his defense were not going to be able to stop them. You probably knew it, too.

Tampa Bay’s inability to get off the field on defense, which has been an issue all season it seems, was on full display in the 23-20 Wild Card loss to Washington. The Commanders were able to convert 8-of-15 (53.3%) third downs and 3-of-5 (60%) fourth downs, and of course, the Bucs couldn’t take the ball away.

Excuse my language, but Bowles’ defense has absolutely sucked at creating takeaways this year. Eighteen total takeaways – barely one per game. Seven interceptions and just 11 fumble recoveries. Bowles’ defense had the seventh-fewest takeaways in the league.

To put that number in perspective, Minnesota and Pittsburgh led the league with 33, and nine teams had 20 or more.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Mike Edwards – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

So why on earth did Bowles have enough faith in his defense to get a stop with 4:41 left? Why not try to go for a first down on fourth-and-3 instead of kicking a field goal? Going up 24-20 would force the Commanders to at least get a touchdown to win.

I’ll tell you why Bowles got conservative and went for the game-tying field goal. He still believed his defense could – and would – get a stop.

Call it arrogance or ignorance.

But when the Commanders took over on offense with just under five minutes left, this game was over because of the lack of killer instinct on his defense.

This defense doesn’t have any killers, and by that I mean drive-killers.

Guys that can be counted on to get the strip-sack, make the interception, break up the pass or hit the QB to force an incompletion and a punt on third down or a turnover on downs on fourth down.

Antoine Winfield Jr. was that superhero for the Bucs last year, but injuries have robbed him of his superpowers this year. In the past in his prime, it was Lavonte David. This year, it hasn’t been anyone.

Outside linebacker Yaya Diaby, who ended the season hot for the Bucs with 2.5 sacks in the last three regular season games and had a third down sack wiped out due to a penalty versus Washington, wants to be that killer. But in just his second year, he’s not there yet.

However, Diaby knows that this defense needs a few assassins moving forward.

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby and Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“I feel like guys do have the killer instinct, but when things aren’t going your way certain guys will get down on themselves,” Diaby said. “If you are a killer you are always going to bring it. You are always going to bring it now matter what. If they knock you down you are always going to bring it. I feel like everybody needs to look at themselves in the mirror this offseason. Man, we have a hell of a team. I honestly, truly believe we can beat every team in the league. If guys really look at themselves in the mirror and know what we truly need to do to improve we’ll be just fine.”

The Bucs defense could’ve used inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis this year. The second-year defender was just coming into his own as a coverage linebacker and a blitzer before a season-ending shoulder injury occurred in a Week 4 win against the Eagles. Dennis, who had a sack of Jayden Daniels in the 37-20 season-opening win versus the Commanders, knows that the defense needs more of a killer instinct next year.

“In this game you have to have that mentality no matter what,” Dennis said. “You always have to have that, especially on defense. On offense, it is what it is, but on defense you have to stop that guy across from you. If you want to be a great player or a great defense you have to have that mentality – kill, kill, kill. We need more of that.”

The Bucs’ greatest defenders in their prime had the ability to make game-changing stops or get timely takeaways. Hall of Famers like Ronde Barber, Derrick Brooks, John Lynch and Warren Sapp, and Bucs legends like David, Simeon Rice, Hardy Nickerson, Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, Donnie Abraham as well as a few others were absolute killers on defense.

Tampa Bay needs to add a few more on defense in the offseason. Jason Licht needs to find some ballhawks, and the Bucs need better assistant coaches to train and develop some in-house killers like Diaby, Dennis, Calijah Kancey and Zyon McCollum.

Otherwise the Bucs will continue to be a lopsided team next year with the high-powered, Super Bowl-ready offense being the superhero and the defense being the sidekick.

STATEMENT 2: The End-Around Was Not A Bad Call By Liam Coen

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and Commanders ILB Bobby Wagner – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I’ve seen and heard some Bucs fans criticize offensive coordinator Liam Coen for “getting too cute” with the fourth quarter end-around that led to a fumble on the exchange between quarterback Baker Mayfield and rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan. Commanders veteran inside linebacker Bobby Wagner recovered the loose ball and Washington converted that into a go-ahead touchdown four plays later.

There was nothing wrong with the play. The only reason it turned out to be a hugely negative play for Tampa Bay was because of poor execution.

The end-around is a staple in Coen’s offense. The Bucs have run an end-around 15 times this year with their wide receivers and even a few times with running back Bucky Irving in Detroit back in Week 2. Sterling Shepard had eight end-arounds this year for 69 yards, which is an 8.6-yard average. McMillan ran four of them this year for 43 yards, an average of 10.8 yards per pop. His longest gain of the year was 17 yards, and Shepard took one for 24 yards.

It’s a handoff.

Unfortunately it was fumbled. And unfortunately it was inside Tampa Bay’s own red zone.

But whether it was at the Tampa Bay 15-yard line or the 50-yard line doesn’t make a “cute play.” Coen was looking for a big play to catch Washington off guard and it just didn’t work out.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Is This Jamel Dean’s Last Game In Tampa Bay?

Bucs CB Jamel Dean and Commanders WR Terry McLaurin – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It very well could be. The Bucs organization is down on Jamel Dean for two reasons – his failure to stay healthy and his failure to make big plays on defense. Dean gave up a 35-yard catch to Terry McLaurin in the first half and then re-injured his knee and didn’t return in the second half.

That forced the Bucs to use second-year cornerback Josh Hayes as his replacement, and Hayes gave up a 5-yard touchdown to McLaurin on fourth down and a 21-yard catch-and-run by Dyami Brown on third-and-6 – both in the fourth quarter. Those two plays were absolutely huge, and occurred because Dean was on the sidelines.

Injuries aren’t usually a player’s fault. No player wants to be injured.

But some players are more injury-prone than others. Fellow starting cornerback Zyon McCollum hasn’t missed a game over the last two years, while Dean missed four games in 2023 and five this season. To make matters worse, Dean only has one interception over the past two seasons.

It was that questionable combo – the inability to make plays on the ball and the inability to stay healthy – that led to the Bucs trading away starting cornerback Carlton Davis III last offseason. Tampa Bay might do the same thing to the 29-year old Dean, who has a salary cap value of just over $15.1 million in 2025. The Bucs were lucky to find a trade partner in the Lions for Davis. They may not be so fortunate with Dean, who probably doesn’t have much trade value.

That could make finding a starting-caliber cornerback the Bucs’ top need in free agency and/or the draft this offseason.

QUESTION 2: Can Deion Jones Help The Bucs At Inside Linebacker In 2025?

Bucs ILB Deion Jones – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It’s possible – we’ll see. The Bucs signed veteran inside linebacker Deion Jones as one of 17 players signed to a future contract on Tuesday, January 14. He spent several weeks on Tampa Bay’s practice squad and was elevated to the game day roster three times at the end of the season. He saw the most playing time with the Bucs in Sunday’s Wild Card loss to the Commanders with 23 snaps. Jones played six snaps versus the Saints and nine against the Panthers the two previous weeks.

Jones, a former second-round pick of the Falcons in 2016, just turned 30 and still has enough speed and athleticism to contribute – plus starter experience. The Bucs will have a pressing need at inside linebacker next year as K.J. Britt is slated to be a free agent and may not return. And of course the legendary Lavonte David turns 35 later in January and may or may not decide to retire.

“Small sample size, but we liked what we saw,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said of Jones. “He’s very athletic, he’s very good in the pass game. He tackled okay. He did some things well. I’d like to see more of him, so we’ll see what the future holds but he’s a guy in hindsight that I’d like to have back.”

The Bucs have SirVocea Dennis, who was starting to come before a season-ending shoulder injury occurred in Week 4, slated to potentially start in 2024. J.J. Russell will be a restricted free agent and Tampa Bay also re-signed practice squader Antonio Grier Jr. But the more competition the better in 2025. Jones hasn’t been a full-time starter since he left Atlanta in 2021. He spent the 2022 season with Cleveland and the 2023 campaign with Carolina – totaling five starts combined between those two teams.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Liam Coen Will Stay In Tampa Bay

Bucs OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I’ve gone on record in saying that the Glazers and general manager Jason Licht will find a way to keep offensive coordinator Liam Coen in Tampa Bay. It could be by convincing him to stay on with head coach Todd Bowles and making Coen the league’s highest-paid offensive coordinator with a hefty pay raise. If Coen agrees to do that, it could mean that Bowles will stick around for the 2025 season – perhaps with the stipulation that he make some changes to his defensive coaching staff.

But if Coen, who has a job interview this week with Jacksonville for the team’s vacant head coach position, gets offered the Jaguars job or gets heavy interest from Tom Brady and the Raiders, who are looking for a replacement for Antonio Pierce at head coach, look for the Glazers to spring into action. Should this happen, I think that could be the catalyst for the Glazers and Licht to move on from Bowles and promote Coen to the role of head coach.

With Coen turning the Bucs offense into a juggernaut this offseason, the team can’t afford to let him go – and it won’t. He could be the league’s next Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan.

PREDICTION 2: John Spytek Will Be The Raiders’ Next General Manager

Bucs assistant GM John Spytek – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I did a Pewter Pulse video on Saturday where I looked at the future of offensive coordinator Liam Coen and assistant general managers John Spytek and Mike Greenberg. Spytek just got a second interview request with Tennessee for their open general manager position and now comes a report that I had forecast in the Pewter Pulse of Las Vegas wanting to interview Spytek for the Raiders’ vacant G.M. spot.

Spytek and Raiders minority owner Tom Brady were teammates at the University of Michigan and both won Super Bowl LV here in Tampa Bay. The Raiders need a really good personnel man and Spytek is the best in the business. I think the Bucs end up retaining Greenberg, who interviewed with the Jets, but they lose Spytek to Brady and Las Vegas. If that happens, good for Spytek, who deserves the chance to run his own team. Las Vegas will have the sixth overall pick and the second-most salary cap room in the NFL this offseason.

As for Greenberg, don’t be surprised if Spytek departs that Bucs general manager Jason Licht gets elevated to team president with Greenberg getting a promotion to general manager. Then, Licht and Greenberg could promote directors of player personnel Mike Biehl and Rob McCartney to the roles of assistant general manager to prevent Spytek from taking either with him to Las Vegas.