It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.

The Bucs blew it in Big D. Tampa Bay slipped to 8-7 and lost its grip on first place in the NFC South with a stunning 26-24 loss at Dallas against a 7-8 Cowboys team that was eliminated from the playoffs before kickoff. The Bucs now have to rely on help from the Falcons and perhaps the Commanders in order to make the postseason. And Tampa Bay must win both of its two final games this season in order to even have a chance at the playoffs.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. These Bucs Were Never Ready For Primetime

This is madness. How can a Bucs team that looked like world-beaters in a 40-17 dismantling of the Chargers last week look so inept in a stunning 26-24 loss against a Cowboys team that had been eliminated from the playoffs prior to kickoff on Sunday Night Football?

A Dallas team led by backup quarterback Cooper Rush no less.

Cooper friggin’ Rush.

Cowboys QB Cooper Rush – Photo by: USA Today

Buc’n, who is one of our PewterReportTV channel members, had a fantastic comment on Sunday night’s post-game Pewter Report Podcast that accurately sums up this team.

“The Buccaneers – good enough to beat any team. Bad enough to lose to any team. Story of the season.”

Truer words have not been spoken about Todd Bowles’ team in 2024. These Bucs have beaten the Eagles, Lions and Commanders, yet have also lost to the Falcons twice, the 49ers and now the Cowboys.

For some reason, Tampa Bay finished 0-4 in prime time this year with the loss in Dallas on Sunday Night Football. Bowles’ team just hasn’t proven to be primetime players in every sense of the word.

Tough one week, soft the next. Zero consistency by Bowles’ bunch.

Four straight losses against mostly good teams en route to 4-6. Four straight wins against mostly lousy teams en route to 8-6.

Going 8-9 or 9-8 every year is the definition of mediocre, and I’m not sure the Bucs finish with 10 wins this year with two games remaining. I think there’s a real chance that Dave Canales and his inspired Panthers team – fresh off an overtime win against the Cardinals – come into Raymond James Stadium and get a victory on Sunday.

Heck, Canales’ win over the Saints earlier in the season cost Dennis Allen his job. Maybe he does the same thing to Bowles, the man who gave him his opportunity as an NFL play-caller just a year ago. The Panthers gave the Bucs everything they could handle and nearly upset them before losing 26-23 in overtime in Carolina.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

Or maybe it’s the Saints who come in and play spoilers in Week 18. For some reason, they play the Bucs much tougher in Tampa Bay than they do in New Orleans. The Saints are an astonishing 5-1 in their last six games at Raymond James Stadium.

As usual, the Bucs defense was the culprit on Sunday against the Cowboys. While Liam Coen’s offense sputtered at times with three turnovers and too many penalties, Tampa Bay did score 24 points. At some point, that has to be enough, right?

But Bowles’ unit once again could not come up with any takeaways to negate the turnovers on offense. Dallas’ defense played far better than Tampa Bay’s.

And Rush, a backup QB, looked like Pro Bowler, completing 74% of his passes for 292 yards and a touchdown while only being sacked once. He led the Cowboys on six scoring drives against the Bucs defense.

Not a good look for Bowles, who is a defensive-minded head coach and the defense’s play-caller.

As I said last week, when the Bucs play as well as they played in Los Angeles in trouncing the Chargers, they can beat anybody in the league. But as we learned in Dallas on Sunday Night Football, this Bucs team is capable of losing to anybody, too.

It’s a shame, but that’s been the story of the Bowles-led Buccaneers for years now.

And with the Super Bowl obviously played in primetime, we know how this Tampa Bay team would fare in that moment, unfortunately.

We also know that this Bucs team just isn’t built for the Super Bowl just yet. Not this year.

And perhaps not with this coaching staff the way it is right now.

STATEMENT 2. Poor Starts Have Doomed The Bucs All Year

The stats were stunningly clear entering Tampa Bay’s Week 16 game at Dallas.

When The Bucs Score First: 8-1
When The Opponent Scores First: 0-5
When The First Score Of The Game Is A Bucs TD: 6-1

Bucs WR Sterling Shepard – Photo by: USA Today

Get off to a fast start and win. Or don’t and lose.

The Cowboys won the opening toss, elected to receive and drove down the field to score a field goal on their first possession. A 3-0 lead turned into a 10-0 advantage and then the Bucs moved to 0-6 on the year when their opponents score first.

I suppose we are led to believe that the Bucs are front-runners then? That when adversity strikes that the team cannot overcome it? That seems to be the case, unfortunately.

Coming into Sunday’s game the Bucs were dominant in the first quarter and fourth quarter, especially. Here are the stats – prior to the Cowboys game – to prove that point.

First Quarter Scoring: Bucs 105 / Opponents 51
Second Quarter Scoring: Bucs 100 / Opponents 134
Third Quarter Scoring: Bucs 71 / Opponents 59
Fourth Quarter Scoring: Bucs 124 / Opponents 70
Overtime: Bucs 3 / Opponents 12

Tampa Bay was outscored 10-0 in the first quarter and trailed at the half, 23-14. Although the Bucs outscored the Cowboys 10-3 in the second half, it wasn’t enough.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Can The Bucs Win The Next Two Games At Home?

Tampa Bay will have to win its next two games with Atlanta getting a win on Sunday over the New York Giants in Michael Penix Jr.’s first start – and get some help. After Sunday’s loss in Dallas, the Bucs cannot afford to let up and lose any more games this season if they want to secure a fourth straight NFC South title or make the playoffs as a Wild Card. There is a chance the Bucs make the postseason taking either route, although winning the division would be the preferred option.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs have been road warriors this year and finished the 2024 season with a 5-3 record away from Raymond James Stadium despite the loss in Dallas. But the team is only 3-4 at home this year and will need to win both to try to recapture the lead in the NFC South from Atlanta while needing the Falcons to lose to either the Commanders next week or the Panthers in the season finale.

Up next is a dangerous Carolina team, who just beat Arizona in overtime on Sunday, 36-30, to get the team’s fourth win of the season. Three of Carolina’s four wins have come in the last seven games, and the Panthers lost to the Chiefs by a last-second field goal, 30-27, and to the Bucs in overtime in Charlotte, 26-23, during that span. Dave Canales has his team playing incredibly hard and the Panthers were a couple of plays away from being 5-2 instead of 3-4 during that span. Carolina even played Philadelphia tough before losing 22-16.

The Bucs know firsthand how dangerous the Panthers can be. Tampa Bay had to rely on some good fortune to escape Carolina with a win. Todd Bowles and Co. will need to play their best game on defense down the stretch to improve to 9-7 on the season.

Then it’s the season finale against a New Orleans team that is somehow 5-1 in Tampa Bay against the Bucs over the last six years. The 5-9 Saints are 3-2 in their last five games and have played inspired football under interim head coach Darren Rizzi. New Orleans’ two losses during that span were close calls to the NFC West-leading Los Angeles Rams, 21-14, and to 10-win Washington, 20-19. Neither game against these division foes will be easy for Tampa Bay.

QUESTION 2. Who Is Responsible For The Bucs’ Poor Tackling?

It’s both the players and the coaches. No, Todd Bowles didn’t miss any tackles on Sunday night, nor did his assistant coaches. But as coaches, it is their responsibility to make sure their players are staying on top of their fundamentals, and that includes tackling technique, getting the proper run fits, and taking the proper angles.

“Fundamentals,” Bowles said after the game. “It happened in the first half. It was fundamentals. In the second-half we kind of calmed it down some, but fundamentals and technique. That’s all it is.”

Bucs OLBs coach George Edwards and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It’s also the coaches’ responsibility to play the right players and put the players in position to make plays and to not put the players in position where they could get exposed.

To think that the Bucs’ defensive players just all of a sudden enter the league from college as ready-made pros is just ridiculous. It’s a coach’s job to develop the talent on the team and get their players to improve. That goes for rushing the passer and pass coverage, too.

Bowles’ defense has not tackled well for most of the season and it’s shown in the fact that the Bucs’ scoring defense is ranked 22nd in the league, allowing 23.5 points per game. Too many points surrendered, too many scoring drives allowed.

Combine poor coverage across the middle of the field virtually all season with poor tackling and it has spelled doom for the Bucs this year for the defense’s soft zone coverage. Bowles and his coaches have had trouble in this area since losing coverage linebacker SirVocea Dennis to a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 4.

“No, it had nothing to do with coverage,” said Bowles after Sunday’s loss. “It had everything to do with missing tackles. We can’t miss tackles.”

No, Coach. It was both.

But the one thing we can agree is that this Bucs defense has not made enough plays this year – and certainly not with the playoffs on the line in Dallas. One sack and zero takeaways is not good defense. It’s horrible defense.

The Cowboys had four sacks and three takeaways. That’s great defense.

“We just didn’t make any plays,” Bowles said.

That’s something Bowles and I can agree on.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. This Is Lavonte David’s Last Year In Tampa Bay

Cowboys WR Jalen Tolbert and Bucs ILB Lavonte David – Photo by: USA Today

As much as it pains me to say this, I think this is legendary linebacker Lavonte David’s final year in Tampa Bay. I don’t have an inside scoop on this, nor do I know if David even wants to keep playing after he turns 35 on January 23. His play has really slipped this year, especially in coverage. David will be a free agent in 2025.

Pro Football Focus isn’t perfect, but they had David as the worst-rated Bucs defender on Sunday night with a 44.5 overall grade and a 32.1 tackle grade. And I agree with that assessment. David’s coverage grade against the Cowboys was 44.2 and he surrendered Dallas’ first touchdown. He’s only had four games where his coverage grade has been 70 or more, and only three games where his overall grade has been 70 or more. David’s composite coverage grade this year has been a career-low 58.1.

His 17.2% missed tackle rate is clear indication that his play is slipping. That’s up from 7.2% from a year ago. It’s unfortunate, but not unexpected. Father Time is undefeated in the NFL, and right now he’s coming for David.

PREDICTION 2. If The Bucs Finish 9-8, There Likely Will Be A Coaching Change

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles needed to show improvement last year in order to keep his job following an 8-9 debut and a home playoff loss to Dallas in the 2022 season. Tampa Bay won the division in Week 18 in Carolina with a 9-0 win and then the Bucs beat the Eagles in the playoffs, 32-9. That was enough improvement to allow Bowles to keep his job.

When asked at the NFL Annual Meeting what the team expects from Bowles’ team in 2024, co-chairman Joel Glazer said “improvement,” but his answer was very vague and open-ended. Improvement in the purest sense of the term from a football standpoint would mean winning at least one more game than the team did the year before. The Bucs went 9-8 a year ago, so getting to 10 wins is likely what the Glazers mean.

Yet this year with Atlanta already at eight wins and leading the division via tiebreaker, finishing with a 9-8 record likely won’t get Tampa Bay into the postseason. Failing to make the playoffs would certainly not classify as improvement and it could mean that a coaching change could be happening if that turns out to be the case. With offensive coordinator Liam Coen likely to garner several interviews for head-coaching positions, the Bucs may be inclined to move on from Bowles and replace him with Coen if the team misses the playoffs.