On the final weekend of November, there was once again movement in the NFC South race, serving as just the latest reminder that this will come down to the very end the way it did in 2022. Even with their 27-20 loss to the Colts in Week 12 and a 4-7 record, the Bucs find themselves within a game of the division lead with six games left in the season.

However, while they’re mathematically in the fight, the eye test tells a different story as they’ve lost six of their last seven games and have not been able to do the simple things necessary to win close games.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay is looking less and less likely to go on a run to capture their third straight NFC South title. The team was once again competitive and in the game late against Indianapolis, but ultimately fell short as a result of making too many mistakes and not coming through to make enough plays. That’s been the story for the Bucs a lot this season, as they have now have four one-possession losses.

Meanwhile, the big NFC South matchup in Week 12 featured the 5-5 Saints and 4-6 Falcons meeting in Atlanta. Desmond Ridder returned to quarterback the Falcons and despite throwing two interceptions, he was on the winning side of a 24-15 game. Bijan Robinson ran for 91 yards and a touchdown while catching three passes for 32 yards and a score. The Atlanta defense intercepted Derek Carr and forced him to fumble in the win.

The Panthers, alone in last place and all but mathematically eliminated from the race for weeks, fell to 1-10 on Sunday with a 17-10 loss to the Titans.

So, with the Falcons’ win, the Bucs could’ve pulled into a three-way tie for the division lead had they beaten the Colts. Instead, it’s Atlanta and New Orleans atop the division, though the former has the divisional record tiebreaker. Tampa Bay is a game behind.

Updated NFC South Standings Through Week 12:

Atlanta Falcons 5-6 (3-0 in the NFC South)
New Orleans Saints 5-6 (1-2 in the NFC South)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-7 (1-1 in the NFC South)
Carolina Panthers 1-10 (0-2 in the NFC South)

Even With Divisional Games Left, Bucs Are Running Out Of Time

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs may have four NFC South games remaining – including two against the last-place Panthers – but they’re running out of time to make up ground and put themselves in position to win the division for a third straight year and make the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season.

Tampa Bay hasn’t shown any signs of stringing wins together, something the team will need to do in order to be on top in the end. Sunday’s loss to Indianapolis made things even more difficult for Todd Bowles and Co., as they’re now 4-7.

They remain only one game out of the division’s top spot, but find themselves likely needing to win four of their final six games to even have a chance to be playing beyond the first weekend in January. That likely means sweeping their remaining divisional games or at least going 3-1 in them and stealing a win at Green Bay (5-6) or at home against Jacksonville (8-3).

For a good team, four or even five wins over the final six games would be realistic given the opponents, but for this Bucs team, it feels nearly unattainable. They haven’t won back-to-back games since Weeks 1 and 2 when they beat Minnesota and Chicago to open the season. They’ve now lost six of their last seven games since they hit their Week 5 bye at 3-1.

But as unlikely as it is for the Bucs to pull it together and make a late charge for the division crown, the race is far from settled. The Falcons lead via tiebreaker, but New Orleans and Tampa Bay are in it as the calendar turns to December. And there are still several head-to-head matchups that can serve as massive swing games.

Remaining NFC South Head-To-Head Matchups (Contending Teams In Bold)

Week 13 (Dec. 3) — Carolina at Tampa Bay
Week 14 (Dec. 10) — Carolina at New Orleans
Week 14 (Dec. 10) — Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Week 15 (Dec. 17) — Atlanta at Carolina
Week 17 (Dec. 31) — New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Week 18 (Jan. 7) — Atlanta at New Orleans
Week 18 (Jan. 7) — Tampa Bay at Carolina

The Bucs have four divisional games left, while the Falcons and Saints have three each.