Is the Super Bowl window open for the Bucs? That’s a hot topic amongst fans, analysts and everyone that enjoys the game of football. Not many teams in the NFC have been as consistent as Tampa Bay has over the last five seasons. The Bucs have a Super Bowl title (2020), four division championships (2021-24) and five playoff appearances (2020-24), which is the longest active streak in the conference.

That provides evidence to believe that the Bucs are knocking on the door of another Super Bowl, which would the third appearance in team history and the second with Jason Licht and Co. running the organization.

Or has Tampa Bay’s postseason run success actually run its course, and will the Bucs fall out contention after five straight postseason appearances?

Bucs Weren’t Thought Of Too Fondly

While many others and I believe that the Bucs have a better chance at the former rather than the latter, not everybody feels that way. ESPN recently published an article with their NFL experts answering a number of questions and predictions for an early look at the 2025 season. These predictions included what the Super Bowl LX matchup will be, who’s going to win the MVP honors, predictions in the draft and free agency and what team might take a step back next season.

Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by: USA Today

Two reporters, Kayln Kahler and Eric Moody, chose the Bucs as the team that will take a step back. Here’s what they had to say about it.

“Kahler: Buccaneers. Carolina could be building something with Bryce Young, and Michael Penix Jr. is ready to boost the Falcons, so competition in the NFC South will take a step up this season. Will Baker Mayfield have the same success with Josh Grizzard as his third offensive coordinator in Tampa?”

“Moody: Buccaneers. The NFC South won’t be as easy for the Buccaneers in 2025 like it was in 2024. Mayfield will have another new offensive coordinator, and hitting on three straight OC hires is rare.”

Adding insult to injury, Moody also predicted that wide receiver Chris Godwin would not only be signing elsewhere in free agency other than Tampa Bay but go to the team that has already poached the Bucs this offseason. He has Godwin teaming up with the Jaguars and Liam Coen. He does at least give a hat tip to the progression of Jalen McMillan and the impact Cade Otton had on the offense.

“Moody: Wide receiver Chris Godwin signs with the Jaguars. The breakout of wide receiver Jalen McMillan and tight end Cade Otton makes Godwin expendable if the Buccaneers want to improve other areas of the team, especially given his injury history. I could see Godwin joining his former offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, and playing alongside Brian Thomas Jr.”

Will The Bucs Get Better Or Decline In 2025? 

Though some may disagree that the Bucs will get worse next season, it’s at least fair to question that premise. It’s the fourth year in a row they will have a different offensive coordinator and the second time in three seasons with a first time play-caller in Josh Grizzard. Tampa Bay has struck gold when finding new offensive coordinators with Dave Canales and Liam Coen, each getting a head coaching job after one season. Can Tampa Bay continue to have success with these coordinators? Eventually one may not hit.

Bucs pass game coordinator Josh Grizzard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Those arguing for the Bucs would be quick to point out that Grizzard was with Tampa Bay last year, so the continuity and system is still there from a season ago. It’s also very reasonable to say that the Bucs’ offense is much better off now with talent than it has been in the last three season.

Baker Mayfield is coming off of a career year. The running game is the best it’s been in a decade. Tampa Bay has a top five offensive line with every starter under contract in 2025 except for left guard. And the progression of Jalen McMillan at receiver puts the passing game in a good spot with Chris Godwin likely returning.

That’s also why much of the concern over the Bucs taking a step back has to do with Todd Bowles and the defensive side. Many are understandably critical of the in-game management that Bowles has had in his coaching career. From time management issues to being too late on personnel adjustments, many wonder if Bowles will ever improve in that area.

The 2024 season was one of the worst years that the Bucs have had defensively, especially in the passing game. They were fourth worst in the league allowing 243.9 yards per game while they only recorded seven interceptions. Along with that, the Bucs did not get much help from their edge rushers, as Yaya Diaby could not replicate his rookie season in terms of sacks and nobody else stepped up. If the interior defensive line wasn’t getting to the quarterback, nobody was outside of inside linebacker Lavonte David blitzing.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and LB Lavonte David – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The counterpoint to all of this would be the injuries, particularly in the secondary. All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. missed a significant amount of time and was a huge letdown after signing a massive contract extension last spring. Starting cornerback Jamel Dean had his constant injuries pop up once again. Reserve cornerback Bryce Hall was out for the season after Week 1 and strong safety Jordan Whitehead, who was re-signed this past offseason, went on injured reserve twice during the season.

Even the biggest supporters know they have to revamp the inside linebackers room and likely some parts in the secondary. But Jason Licht and Co. deserve the benefit of the doubt that they can fix the defense through free agency and the draft.

The last part of this equation that we just don’t know yet is what the competition in the NFC South will be like. Tampa Bay has taken great advantage of the NFC South being a weaker division as of late. Heading into 2025 the Saints may be the worst of the group, but how much progress did the Panthers make? They didn’t make it easy on the Bucs when the two teams played in Carolina.

And of course, many eyes will be on last year’s first-round pick, Michael Penix Jr., as the new starting quarterback for the Falcons. Penix started three games at the end of the season, and this year he’ll start from the beginning. If he is truly the guy for Atlanta, it causes a lot of issues for Tampa Bay. But if he struggles like some young players do, the path to winning another division championship for the Bucs may not be as tumultuous as others.