The Bucs’ strength of schedule falls on the lower side this year. Much of that is due to them facing an NFC South that has been down for several years but may be experiencing a bit of a rejuvenation with the Falcons and Panthers both looking to improve behind young, promising quarterbacks. But just because the overall 2024 winning percent of their opponents isn’t great doesn’t mean that Tampa Bay won’t face challenges. And for the Bucs offense, and new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, those challenges come early and often.

Week Two – Bucs At Houston

After opening the season in Atlanta, the Bucs continue their early road swing in Houston. Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is a defensive mastermind with plenty of incredible players to utilize. With a defensive lineup that includes star pass rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter along with one of the most talented secondaries in the NFL, Ryans and the defense helped lead the Texans to a playoff run last year.

Texans QB C.J. Stroud and HC DeMeco Ryans – Photo by: USA Today

Per Next Gen Stats, the Texans were 6th in yards per game allowed (315.0), 4th in yards per play (5.1), and 5th in EPA/play (-0.11). They were tied for 4th in sacks at 49. Ryans’ pass rush and physical corners help him keep more players in coverage to wreak havoc. Despite the impressive unit, the Bucs fared well against Houston the last time the two teams met in 2023. It was a coming out party of sorts for former offensive coordinator and current Panthers head coach Dave Canales. The Bucs lost a shootout 37-39, but the offense exploded for four touchdowns and +0.08 EPA/play. Expect Grizzard to look back to that game to get ideas on how to attack an admittedly improved roster.

Week Three – Bucs Host New York Jets

New York’s defense took several steps back last year as it seemed like every player wanted to bail on the trainwreck of a season that they had to endure. But a bad season for them was still 3rd in yards per game allowed (313.8). But the underlying metrics were not as rosy. They allowed 23.8 points per game (20th) and -0.02 EPA/play (19th).

But there is reason for optimism in Gotham. New head coach Aaron Glenn prefers a man-heavy, blitz-laden style of defense. This is going to let All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner shine. Up front the Jets boast a formidable pass rush featuring Jermaine Johnson, Will McDonald and Quinnen Williams. But despite the addition of nose tackle Derrick Nnadi there should be opportunities for the Bucs to run against New York. They struggled to fit the run last year with edge rushers that were asked to play from wide nine positions and without the protection of the now-retired C.J. Mosely helping to make them right at the second level.

Week Four – Bucs Host Philadelphia

It’s no secret that the Eagles improvement to Super Bowl champion last year was fueled by their defense. They made several key changes on that side of the ball last year including defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, linebacker Zack Baun and cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. All of those moves hit and hit hard. Philadelphia ranked second in scoring defense and EPA/play last year.

The roster is stacked top to bottom and execute Fangio’s two-high, quarters heavy scheme marvelously. They also have a relentless two-deep pass rush that includes Nolan Smith Jr., Azeez Ojulari, Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Moro Ojomo, Josh Uche and Jalyx Hunt.

Eagles LB Zack Baun – Photo by: USA Today

The last time the two teams met the Bucs put up 33 on the Eagles. But that was week four of the 2024 season before Philadelphia’s defense really clicked under Fangio’s system. Through that quarter mark of the campaign opponents average 366 yards and 24 points against the Eagles. From Week five on, those numbers fell to 251 and 15.9, respectively. The Eagles team Tampa Bay will face in 2025 should be much improved from the squad they faced at an identical point last year. Grizzard and the Bucs will have to have their best zone beaters ready to take on a team that ran cover-4 or cover-6 over a third of the time last year. He will also need to have his most creative toss packages ready to find room on the outside to run away from Davis and Carter.

Week Five – Bucs At Seattle

Head coach Mike Macdonald is widely considered one of the most innovative defensive minds in the NFL at the moment. He has been on the vanguard of the league’s sim-pressure trend. That creative scheme helped the Seahawks become one of the best defenses in the NFL down the stretch last year. From week 10 on, Seattle was 5th in success rate allowed and EPA allowed.

Like many of the defenses the Bucs face over this six-game stretch, Seattle boasts a talented secondary featuring Riq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love. Up front they have an underrated pass rush that added veteran DeMarcus Lawrence to Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu and Byron Murphy II. The lynchpin for the Seahawks’ defense last year was middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV. He was integral to improving Seattle’s run. Prior to Jones’ addition to the defense in week eight Seattle was 26th in success rate allowed and 18th in rush EPA/play. After Jones arrived, they improved to 11th and 8th, respectively.

Week Six – Bucs Host San Francisco

Like the Jets, the 49ers struggled relative to their recent success last year. But they have made significant investments in their defense this offseason. They reunited with their old defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. They also drafted Mykel Williams, Alfred Collins and C.J. West while also trading for Bryce Huff. Those four players were added to a defensive front that already had pass rushing superstar Nick Bosa. Oh, and the 49ers still have the best middle linebacker in the game in Fred Warner.

49ers LB Fred Warner Photo by: USA Today

For all of his warts as a head coach, Saleh had the Jets defense as a top 5 unit for the majority of his stay in New York. And before that he had the 49ers in a similar stratosphere during his first stint in San Francisco. Relying on three rookies to fix the front structure is a tall task. And it is a good bet that San Francisco will be much improved from last year’s version of themselves. But if Saleh can help improve the run fit issues that plagued the defense last year, similar to how Macdonald was able to in Seattle last year, the pass rush is still formidable enough to cuase headaches for opposing offenses. And that includes Grizzard and the Bucs.

Week Seven – Bucs At Detroit

The Lions lost Aaron Glenn and Carlton Davis III in the offseason. But they added D.J. Reed and are getting several starters back from injury. Between Aidan Hutchinson, Derrick Barnes, Alex Anzalone, D.J. Reader, Marcus Davenport and Alim McNeil, Detroit lost 53 player games last year. By shear regression to the mean the Lions should be better from a health perspective. Add in perhaps the best safety duo in the NFL in Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph and you have a recipe for a strong defensive unit that will push Grizzard and the Bucs to be their best to win.

The Bucs beat the Lions 20-16 last year. But looking beyond the scoreboard, you find a defensive performance from Detroit that was on level. They held Tampa Bay’s offense to just 216 yards and -0.15 EPA/play. That was in large part to Hutchinson going full Super Saiyan against Justin Skule while Skule filled in for right tackle Luke Goedeke.

With Glenn’s departure there is a chance the Lions have an at least partially re-imagined defensive scheme this year. But assuming they follow last year’s model the Bucs will need to find creative ways to get to man beaters while keeping extra blockers in to beat the blitz.