The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have one of the most efficient offenses in the league, but they could be even better. Tom Brady is on pace for a historic season, the receiving weapons are as good as any in the NFL and Byron Leftwich has made clear strides as an offensive coordinator. Even the Bucs’ running game has diversified and become serviceable. 

With Leftwich designing plays intelligently and players executing at a high level, the Bucs do the difficult things well. But their first down play selection, which is comparatively easy to control, has been uninspiring. 

The Buccaneers rank fourth in early down passing frequency, but this is deceiving. Tampa Bay has, by far, the biggest discrepancy in their first and second down play calling frequencies in the league. They rank 21st in neutral first down passing rate, throwing the ball only 46 percent of the time — less than the Patriots, Ravens, and Vikings. As a reminder, ‘neutral’ is defined as when there are more than two minutes remaining in the half and when neither team has less than a 20 percent chance of winning the game. 

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs completely flip the script on neutral second downs, throwing it 82 percent of the time. For reference, the Chiefs rank second at 72 percent. This is partially due to how infrequently the Bucs create favorable second down rushing situations with their first down play-calling. 

In general, handoffs on second down generate an Expected Points Added (EPA) greater than zero when there are three or fewer yards needed to pick up a first down. Tampa Bay is only in second-and-3 or less on 13 percent of their neutral second downs. That mark ranks 25th in the league. Passing more often on first down would allow them to run more often on second down, thereby becoming more unpredictable. 

Despite being a run-heavy first down team, Leftwich doesn’t call much play action. The Bucs rank 22nd in first down play action usage. 36 percent of Tampa’s first down passes use play action. As mentioned, the Ravens run the ball less than the Bucs on neutral first downs, but they call play action on a league-leading 53 percent of their first down passes.

Overall, across all downs, the Bucs rank 30th in play action usage at 19 percent. Meanwhile, per Sports Info Solutions, Brady has been the most efficient play action quarterback in the NFL this season. He’s averaging two more yards per attempt with play action than without it. 

One argument in favor of running on first down could be that Tampa Bay’s opponents are playing the pass. Aside from the fact that the Bucs are inducing even more blatant pass-first situations with their second down frequencies, this argument doesn’t hold up well. For one, the Bucs are actually around middle of the pack in terms of how often they face Middle of the Field Open (MOFO) defenses. These can also be described as two-high safety coverages.

Unlike last season, when the Buccaneers underperformed against two-high coverages, Brady has excelled this season against MOFO. 

The Buccaneers don’t need to will their opponents into taking away the run because they pass the ball well, anyway. Moreover, teams that are committed to playing two-high coverages against the Bucs aren’t going to stop playing light boxes even if the Bucs do run the ball a lot. In fact, that’s exactly what those opponents are hoping happens, and that’s why the league as a whole has trended towards this light box strategy.

Even though the Buccaneers have been relatively efficient on the ground this season, their dominance has come through the air. On neutral first downs, Tampa Bay leads the league by a decent margin in passing efficiency with a dominant 0.350 EPA per play. When rushing on neutral first downs, the Bucs average -0.070 EPA per play.

Bucs QB Tom Brady and HC Bruce Arians – Photo by: USA Today

In an imperfect example of Simpson’s Paradox, here’s why first-down passing frequency matters: The Eagles, despite being a far less efficient passing offense than the Bucs, rank higher than the Bucs in overall first down efficiency. Why? Because they throw the ball more often. Philadelphia calls dropbacks on 56 percent of neutral first downs, ranking seventh in the NFL. Again, Tampa Bay throws it on only 46 percent of neutral first downs. If Jalen Hurts can do it, I’m pretty sure Tom Brady can too!

The Bucs’ offense will be productive regardless of their tendencies. They are just that talented. But there are relatively easy, yet significant, improvements available to them. This doesn’t necessarily mean they need to throw more as a whole. Simply shifting their passing frequency to first down would be extremely impactful. This would consequently create more run-favorable second and third downs. Using more play action would go a long way as well.

Over Brady’s entire career with the Patriots, only the Eagles dropped back more often on neutral first downs. For the Bucs offense to be at their absolute best, they need to put the ball in their quarterback’s hands. And they need to do it before they waste a critical down.