Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

This week I’ll list five hard truths about the Bucs offense that Tampa Bay fans need to hear heading into the 2023 season. In next Friday’s SR’s Fab 5 I’ll do the same with five hard truths about the Bucs defense.

FAB 1. Dave Canales Will Have Some Growing Pains

The Bucs are awfully excited about new offensive coordinator Dave Canales. Head coach Todd Bowles loves his commitment to the run. General manager Jason Licht and the front office loves his energy and enthusiasm. The players love Canales’ easy-to-learn system and the quarterback-friendly scheme he imported from Seattle. The media loves his informative and detailed press conferences. Bucs fans love the expectation that he won’t be as predictable as Byron Leftwich.

To say that Canales has received rave reviews from everybody at the AdventHealth Training Center would be an understatement.

Bucs OL coach Joe Gilbert and OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But the honeymoon could certainly be over quickly if the Bucs offense sputters out of the gate and Canales fails to live up to the hype. That could happen with a totally revamped offensive line, a new starting running back, the youngest tight end room in the NFL combined with a brand new starting quarterback not named Tom Brady – along with a novice play-caller.

In fact, chances are that will happen to some degree. There will be some games – likely in the first half of the season – where the offense struggles and Canales has some lousy play calls. So accept that going into the season.

The guess here is that the newness of Tampa Bay’s offense might actually catch Minnesota and Chicago off guard because there won’t be much film to watch and game plan from in the first two weeks of the season. But once the Bucs host the Eagles in Week 3, we might see Canales’ offense regress a bit. Not just because of Philadelphia’s formidable defense, but also because new defensive coordinator Sean Desai was Seattle’s associate head coach-defense in 2022 and worked with Canales. Desai knows the Seattle roots of Tampa Bay’s new offense quite well, and that, combined with Philly’s talent on defense, will be tough to overcome.

How Canales adjusts to opponents once they have ample game film of his offense and tendencies to study will be critically important to his development as a play-caller and the success of the Bucs offense this season. Having a plan is one thing. But being able to adjust once that plan no longer works is something entirely different.

Any coach can have enthusiasm. Any coach can be a friendly players’ coach. Any coach can install an offensive or defensive system and playbook.

Bucs OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But calling plays takes a special talent. It truly is an art form.

Being an effective play-caller involves the ability to mask your team’s weaknesses and play to your team’s strengths, while adequately identifying the opponents’ weaknesses and relentlessly attacking those areas. Good play-callers have the ability to adapt and make the necessary in-game adjustments. Great play-callers have a knack for uncanny anticipation and timing when calling the right plays.

Canales has had one preseason game under his belt and he’s getting ready for his second-ever game as a play-caller in New Jersey against the Jets on Saturday night. We’ll know by the end of the season if Canales has become a good play-caller, or if he’s on his way to becoming a great one.

Or we might just find out that he’s actually a below-average play-caller – although I’m betting against that happening. I believe in Canales and think that he’s got what it takes to be at least a good offensive coordinator in the NFL.

One thing seems certain. Canales’ growth as a play-caller is going to be a process and there are going to be some natural ups and downs. Expect the Bucs offense to click some games and falter in others.

Consistency is king in any team sport, and that’s what Canales and the Bucs will be striving for every day. But it’s unrealistic to think that it’s all going to come together at the start of the season given all of the new variables thrown into the equation at QB, along the offensive line and in the young tight end and running back rooms.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles, OC Dave Canales and WRs coach Brad Idzik – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

That’s not to say that the offense won’t be capable of doing enough to win games or average 21 points per game, which would be a significant improvement over last year. Nor does it mean the Bucs are doomed to a bad 0-4 or 1-3 start to the season. It’s just that Todd Bowles’ defense might need to wear the superhero cape in the first month or two of the season and do its part in holding opponents to 17 points or less to really increase the chances for victory as Canales’ offense comes together.

This season is going to require a good deal patience from Bucs fans, and unfortunately patience is a fleeting thing in today’s instant gratification, on-demand society.

Bucs fans have been spoiled on occasion. Jon Gruden’s arrival in Tampa Bay in 2002 meant an instant Super Bowl championship in a truly magical season. Nearly two decades later, Tom Brady’s arrival brought about its own instant magic – and another Super Bowl – in 2020.

So temper your enthusiasm, Bucs fans. This is not a team that is built to compete for the Super Bowl this year, much less NFC supremacy. Winning the NFC South, which is still a downtrodden division, will be enough of a challenge.

The hope is that Canales and his offense will quickly learn from their mistakes, and most importantly, not repeat them. That’s how to quickly move from growing pains to real growth as a play-caller.

FAB 2. Improved Bucs Ground Game Is Not Going To Appear Overnight

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

There is nowhere to go but up for Tampa Bay’s running game this year. The Bucs had the league’s worst rushing attack in 2022, averaging just 75 yards per game. So any improvement will be seen as progress.

But Dave Canales and the Bucs aren’t aiming for incremental progress. They want significant improvement.

Going from dead last in league in rushing to ranking somewhere in the teens – between 13-19 – would be ideal progress in Tampa Bay’s first year in a new offensive scheme that emphasizes the ground game.

Former offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich gave up on running the ball too early and too often in games. The result was one of the most lopsided offenses in the NFL in 2022, as the Bucs led the league in passing attempts for a second straight year. That’s not ideal with a 45-year old quarterback under center, and certainly not what Tom Brady had in mind for what would be his final NFL season.

That’s why Leftwich was fired after the season by head coach Todd Bowles and why Canales was hired.

But with a retooled offensive line that might not feature a single starter in the same place along the O-line from a year ago, it’s hard to imagine this unit paving the way for 110 yards per game on the ground consistently out of the gate. The Bucs like the athleticism of the offensive line, and the linemen love the mid-zone scheme that Canales has brought with him from Seattle.

Bucs OC Dave Canales, RBs Ronnie Brown and Sean Tucker and QB Kyle Trask – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay also likes its young running back room, which is led by Rachaad White. Don’t be surprised if Chase Edmonds becomes RB2 and if rookie Sean Tucker makes a real push for playing time, too. White, Edmonds and Tucker have some real speed that can be exploited if they get a crease or a cutback lane from the offensive line and the tight ends.

There will be times when Canales sticks with the running game too long, and perhaps an occasion or two when he abandons it too soon. Finding that sweet spot is only gained through trial-and-error experience as a play-caller. Only through experience is how play-callers develop those gut instincts.

For the second straight preseason game, the Bucs plan on sitting left tackle Tristan Wirfs and left guard Matt Feiler to protect them and rest them for a long, 17-game season. But not playing them against the Jets only slows down the process of cohesiveness along the offensive line. The Bucs’ ground game will be improved by the end of the year, but it’s going to take some time for the chemistry up front to click.

FAB 3. Right Side Of Bucs O-Line Will Be A Work In Progress

The Bucs are taking a bit of a gamble with the right side of their offensive line, starting rookie Cody Mauch at right guard and second-year player Luke Goedeke at right tackle. The two are very young and very inexperienced, but also very athletic, very talented and very physical in the run game.

Bucs RT Luke Goedeke – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The only way to get better in the NFL is through playing. A player can only learn so much in practice, in the film room and by taking mental reps on the sidelines. The only way to gain experience is on the field in trial-by-fire game situations. Starting a pair of second-round offensive linemen to see if they can play is a must for the organization, and that means there very well could be a steep learning curve for Mauch, Goedeke or both of them.

The good news is that both players are better run blockers than pass protectors at this stage of their careers. And the plan is to run the ball with far more regularity than the team did last year or when Bruce Arians was head coach from 2019-2021.

However, pass protection is going to be an adventure. Third-and-long is not going to be a friend of either Goedeke or Mauch.

On most passing plays Dave Canales’ offense is designed to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hand in 2.7 seconds. Whether it’s a quick pass out of shotgun or a quick three-step drop, the faster the ball is out, the less of a burden it is for the offensive line to pass protect.

The fact that Canales’ system calls for bootlegs, roll outs and waggles also helps. The pressure isn’t there to form a traditional pocket down-in and down-out, and offers some unpredictability about where the quarterback’s launching point will be. That makes things harder for the defense and easier for young linemen like Mauch and Goedeke.

Bucs RG Cody Mauch – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It would not be a surprise if either Mauch or Goedeke leads the team in sacks allowed or penalties this year. That’s just part of gaining experience in a trial-by-fire situation. Mauch will experience that for the first time this year, while Goedeke went through that last year at left guard, but now starts over at right tackle, where he has just two games worth of experience under his belt.

The key for Canales, head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht will be to closely monitor the play of Mauch and Goedeke, and if one of them really struggles, to not wait too long to give them the hook. The Bucs waited until Week 7 last year to consider playing Nick Leverett at left guard, and by then, Goedeke’s confidence was shot. Leverett proved to be a much better guard than Goedeke and should’ve been inserted into the starting lineup a few weeks earlier.

With Mauch and Goedeke starting and playing in all three preseason games, the Bucs should give both players the first two games of the regular season to sink or swim. That’s five football games worth of game experience for them and tape to evaluate for the coaches. If Goedeke or Mauch is struggling by Week 3 when the Eagles come to town, it might warrant making a change. Leverett has proven that he’s a capable guard, while Justin Skule or Brandon Walton could give the Bucs another option at right tackle – if necessary.

FAB 4. Tristan Wirfs Won’t Be An Instant Pro Bowler At Left Tackle

Tristan Wirfs has been open about some of the mental struggle he’s going through in making the position switch this year from right tackle, where he’s been a two-time Pro Bowler and an All-Pro, to left tackle. But that doesn’t mean he doesn’t think he can do it. Wirfs has confidence in himself being just as good at left tackle as he was at right tackle. He just doesn’t want to let the team down in if he struggles.

There will be some reps and perhaps some games where that happens this year, especially early on. His footwork is now a mirror opposite of what it’s been the last three years in the league, and now Wirfs’ first punch will be with his left hand instead of his right one. And he’s naturally right-handed, by the way.

Former NFL offensive lineman and current Fox NFL analyst Brian Baldinger did a great job of explaining the challenge that Wirfs faces moving from right tackle to left tackle this season. Click on the tweet below.

Wirfs has the supreme athleticism, footwork and power to make the switch and play great football at left tackle this year. Will that ultimately manifest itself in a third consecutive Pro Bowl berth this year? I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. The guy can literally jump out of pool in waist-deep water, which is a freakish thing for a 6-foot-5, 345-pound man to do.

But if Wirfs doesn’t become a Pro Bowler in 2023 because he gave up a sack or two more than usual, or got flagged for a few more holding penalties, it doesn’t mean that he was unsuccessful during his transition to left tackle. It’s just setting the stage for that to happen in 2024 once he’s mastered playing on the left side.

One more bonus hard truth along the offensive line is that Ryan Jensen might not be able to play all 17 games this season – if any at all. Jensen hasn’t taken any reps in 11-on-11 team periods during training camp, and only total three reps in 1-on-1 pass protection-pass rush drills. Without Jensen, Wirfs needs to step up and be the leader of a very young offensive line.

FAB 5. Expect Bucs To Play Multiple QBs In 2023

The Bucs will start Kyle Trask at quarterback against the Jets in the second preseason game on Saturday, but regardless of what happens, look for Todd Bowles to name Baker Mayfield as the starter as early as next week. In order for Trask, who has played in just one quarter of an NFL regular season game, to beat out Mayfield for the starting job, he had to play lights-out football throughout training camp and the preseason and hope Mayfield self-destructed with interceptions.

Bucs OC Dave Canales and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

While Mayfield has thrown more interceptions in camp, he’s also made far more big-time plays. And when it counted the most, which was in the first preseason game, Mayfield was 8-of-9 for 63 yards and a touchdown, while Trask was 6-of-10 for 99 yards with an interception.

If the Bucs’ quarterback competition was close, the tie was going to broken by the guy who has 69 career starts in the NFL, which is Mayfield. To Trask’s credit, he’s improved considerably from last year while learning and operating in an entirely new offense. In the second week of camp he caught fire and really made this a tight race at QB.

But once the competition got tight, Mayfield stepped up in practice and in the preseason game and rose to the occasion. Trask made Mayfield better, and that’s what any good backup is supposed to do in an open competition.

That could serve the Bucs well later this season in case Mayfield falters and he starts turning the ball over, as he’s had a penchant for doing at times during his five years in the NFL. Since entering the league in 2018 as the first overall pick, Mayfield’s 64 interceptions are the most in the NFL.

Mayfield has also gotten hurt before. He missed two games in 2021, which was his last season in Cleveland, due to an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. There is a chance that we may see Trask get some starts if Mayfield suffers an injury or shows ineffectiveness.

The Bucs were spoiled by the fact that Tom Brady never missed a start in his three years in Tampa Bay – even in his early 40s. When Bowles names Mayfield the starting quarterback, the expectation is that it will be for the entire season. But as the 49ers showed last year losing not one, but three quarterbacks due to injury, having capable depth at the QB spot is vital for success in the NFL.

Not only do the Bucs have Trask, but they also have John Wolford, and he’s better than most third-string quarterbacks. The Bucs hope neither one sees the field this year unless it’s in mop-up duty, but all it takes is one play for an injury to happen or one more interception than Bowles can tolerate to put Trask on the field.