Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.

The Bucs snapped a four-game losing streak to end the 2025 regular season on a high note with a 16-14 win over the Panthers. Tampa Bay’s offense did just enough to get the win that kept the team’s faint playoff hopes alive. The Bucs and Panthers are both tied at 8-9 and the winner of the Falcons vs. Saints will determine the NFC South champion. If Atlanta wins, Carolina advances to the playoffs and Tampa Bay’s season is over. If New Orleans prevails then Tampa Bay wins its fifth straight NFC South title.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. What’s Happened To The Bucs Offense Lately?

It was a soggy Saturday at Raymond James Stadium, and the rainy weather conditions largely dictated what the Bucs could and couldn’t do offensively. Despite having an arsenal of wide receivers in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan, it was tight end Cade Otton and running back Bucky Irving that were featured in Saturday’s 16-14 win over the Panthers.

Bucs offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard was essentially forced to grind out a bad weather win by leaning heavily on a ground game that was effective enough. Tampa Bay rushed for 140 yards on 42 carries, averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Baker Mayfield’s 11-yard scramble was the longest carry on the night for either team. Irving posted season highs with 26 carries for 85 yards (3.3 avg.).

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Nathan Ray Seebeck

Mayfield completed 16-of-22 passes for 203 yards with one touchdown and one interception – a pick that led to Carolina’s first touchdown of the game and cut into Tampa Bay’s 10-0 early lead. That Mayfield interception scared the heck out of head coach Todd Bowles, who likely directed Grizzard to call a very conservative game to protect Tampa Bay’s slim lead.

“Obviously, the turnover happened and pouring down rain in [that] situation, you don’t want to make that pass when it was a torrential downpour there and we had a 10-0 lead and playing field-position ball right there,” Bowles said. “With the conditions, it was that type of game; you really couldn’t get it outside much – in the first half especially, it rained continuously.”

That meant leaning on field goals from Chase McLaughlin, who was three-of-four on the night with a 38-yarder blocked in the fourth quarter, instead of the Bucs receivers. Against the Panthers, Evans had two catches for 34 yards, McMillan had one catch for 11 yards, Godwin and Egbuka each had one catch for eight yards. Seldom used rookie receiver Tez Johnson had one catch for 17 yards. Otton out-produced them all with seven catches for 94 yards and his first touchdown of the season.

Tampa Bay’s offense produced 338 yards and converted 8-of-15 (53.3%) third downs. But what was troubling was that the Bucs scored just 16 points despite controlling the clock for just over 37 minutes. That is a huge problem because yards don’t win NFL games and neither does winning the time of possession.

Points win games – and the Bucs simply aren’t scoring enough, and that’s a big reason why this team finished 8-9, including a 2-7 record down the stretch.

Should the Bucs actually make the postseason thanks to the Saints upsetting the Falcons in Atlanta, they’ll face either San Francisco, which has the 10th-best scoring offense, averaging 25.7 points per game, or the Los Angeles Rams, which have the NFL’s top-scoring offense, averaging 30.1 points per game.

Bucs OC Josh Grizzard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay’s offense ranks 19th in the league, averaging 22.4 points per game. But over the last three games the Bucs have averaged just 17.7 points, while the 49ers have averaged 31 points and the Rams have averaged 34 points over that span.

As the Bucs’ 2025 regular season concluded, Tampa Bay’s offense scored more than 20 points just once since a 32-point outburst in a 44-32 loss at Buffalo back in Week 11. That came in a 29-28 loss to Atlanta in Week 15 on Thursday Night Football. Even in last week’s 20-17 loss at Miami, the Bucs offense only generated 10 points before a last-minute touchdown in garbage time.

The Bucs actually scored more points with more injuries on offense during the team’s 6-2 record than they have since the return of Irving, Evans and McMillan after the bye week.

Everyone has been focused on whether or not Todd Bowles will survive a losing season this year, but what if he does?

What will happen to Grizzard?

If Bowles remains the head coach, will he want to replace Grizzard in the offseason or will he want to keep him? Even if he wants to keep Grizzard for the sake of continuity, will Bowles be forced to use him as a scapegoat and replace the first-year coordinator?

STATEMENT 2. Emeka Egbuka Falls Short Of 1,000 Receiving Yards

Part of what made the Bucs offense hum in the first half of the season was the play of Emeka Egbuka, the team’s first-round pick. The rookie wide receiver had a torrid start to his first season in Tampa Bay with game-winning catches at Atlanta and at Houston, followed by his first 100-yard game against Philadelphia in a Week 4 loss to the Eagles. He was sensational in Tampa Bay’s 38-35 win at Seattle in Week 5, catching seven passes for 163 yards and a touchdown.

Remember when it seemed like Egbuka was a shoo-in to post a 1,000-yard season as a rookie?

Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Cliff Welch/PR

In the first nine games of the year, Egbuka had 40 catches for 677 yards and six touchdowns. Over the last eight games of the 2025 campaign, Egbuka caught only 23 passes for 261 yards and didn’t score a touchdown. The Ohio State product did battle some dropped passes after the bye week, but was only targeted 10 times over the last three games, finishing with just five catches for 68 yards, including a 40-yard gain in his lone catch at Carolina in Week 16.

After catching three passes for 20 yards in Miami, Egbuka ended the season with only one catch for eight yards against Carolina on Sunday. Egbuka totaled 63 catches for 938 yards (14.9 avg.) and six touchdowns. It’s disappointing to see Egbuka fall 62 yards shy of a milestone achievement.

Obviously the return of Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan to the lineup from injuries played a role in Egbuka’s declining usage, but the Bucs were 6-3 in Weeks 1-9 and just 2-6 in Weeks 10-18 when his production waned. Had Egbuka been featured a bit more, perhaps he would have helped Tampa Bay win another game or two.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Will Todd Bowles Start The 2026 Season On The Hot Seat If He Survives Getting Fired?

Yes, after a disappointing 8-9 record in 2025, Todd Bowles will start the 2026 season on the hot seat.

Unless the Bucs make the playoffs, win in the Wild Card round at home and win on the road in the NFC Divisional round and advance to the NFC Championship Game. If Bowles can somehow get this team to the cusp of the Super Bowl then he will escape the hot seat at the start of the 2026 season.

Otherwise, even with a home playoff win next week, followed by a road loss in the next round, Bowles’ record in the regular season in Tampa Bay will be 35-33 with a 2-4 postseason record. Bowles will have had two 8-9 seasons bookending a 9-7 record in 2023 and a 10-7 record in 2024.

That’s hot seat worthy for an underachieving team with a playoff-caliber roster.

QUESTION 2. Could Todd Bowles Opt For Retirement?

I think that’s a possibility. If the Bucs force Todd Bowles to fire some of his coaches, especially on the defensive side, or make him give up play-calling duties in 2026 in order to stay on, I think there is a chance that he opts to retire instead. This season has been incredibly taxing on Bowles, especially with the team’s collapse during the 2-7 stretch after the bye week.

Bowles, who will turn 63 next year, has already said he doesn’t want to coach as long as his predecessor, Bruce Arians, did. Arians abruptly retired in the 2022 offseason at age 69. Bowles signed a three-year contract extension through 2028, but it’s likely a two-year extension with a team option for 2028. Still, he could choose to walk away if he wanted to.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

There are some within the building at One Buccaneer Place that would like to see the team move on from cornerbacks coach Kevin Ross, who turns 64 this year, and safeties coach Nick Rapone, who will turn 70. Bowles played in the secondary with Ross at Temple and has coached with him for nearly a decade. Rapone was Bowles’ safety coach at Temple and he’s been with Bowles just as long. Tampa Bay clearly needs to get younger, more energetic coaches in the secondary. Would Bowles want to fire his friends just to remain the team’s head coach?

Bowles has said before that he does not want to give up play-calling duties. Yet the defense was worse this year than it was last year, and if Bowles wasn’t the head coach everyone would be calling on him to fire the defensive coordinator. But that’s Bowles, as he’s the defensive play-caller. Would he want to stick around as a walk-around coach in Tampa Bay and rely on someone else to call the defense?

If he’s prompted to give up play-calling duties and/or fire his coaching cronies that could lead to Bowles calling it a career and suddenly the Bucs would be in the market for a new head coach and coaching staff starting next week.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucs Defense Will Be Better With Calijah Kancey In 2026

Bucs defensive tackle Calijah Kancey returned to action in Week 18 against the Panthers after missing most of the season with a torn pectoral muscle. Kancey suffered that injury in the team’s 20-19 win at Houston in Week 2 and Tampa Bay missed not only his pass rush ability, as he was the team’s leading sacker with 7.5 in 2024, but also his energy in helping to stop the run.

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey – Cliff Welch/PR

“Kancey’s a big part of that,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said. “When he came back and practiced this week, everything picked up. [Garrett] Greene, our receiver – our practice squad receiver – did a heck of a job playing Bryce Young as quarterback and ran those guys around so we’d try to hustle to the ball and everybody to the ball – Kancey’s recommendation. Him coming back, from an energy standpoint, really took the practice to another level which carried over in the game.”

Kancey didn’t record a tackle, but Carolina was held to 19 yards on 10 carries on Saturday. Tampa Bay wound up being 3-0 this year with Kancey in the lineup. The Bucs defense will be better with his return to the lineup in 2026 – regardless of who is calling the plays.

PREDICTION 2. The Raise The Flags Docuseries Will Be The Best Thing About The Bucs’ 50th Season

Whether the Bucs make the playoffs as a division champion at 8-9 or whether they don’t, this 2025 season has been a big letdown. Especially after a hot, 6-2 start that had Tampa Bay atop or near the top of the power rankings, that had Baker Mayfield in the MVP conversation, that had Emeka Egbuka in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation and even Todd Bowles in the NFL Head Coach of the Year conversation.

A 2-7 finish after the bye week crushed all that. When it’s all said and done, the best thing to come out of Tampa Bay’s 50th season will be the Raise The Flags docuseries. The 10-part documentary, of which I was grateful to take part in, was absolutely excellent. A job well done for producer Trent Cooper and Bucs co-chairman Ed Glazer, who was the driving force behind it.