SR’s Fab 5 is a collection of reporting and analysis on the Bucs from yours truly, Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds. Here are four things that caught my attention this week, plus some random tidbits in my Buc Shots section at the end. Enjoy!

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FAB 1. Bucs Offseason: Loss To Cowboys Was Actually Perfect

If the Bucs were going to lose to the Cowboys in the Wild Card round of the 2022 playoffs, the way they went about it was absolutely perfect. Tampa Bay was never in the game, as Dallas owned an 18-0 lead at halftime and led 24-0 in the third quarter before the Bucs scored a pair of garbage time touchdowns in a 31-14 loss.

The Bucs season ended with an 8-10 record, including the playoff loss. That’s a clear sign to everyone – general manager Jason Licht, head coach Todd Bowles and the players – that the results in 2022 weren’t good enough despite the team limping into the playoffs by winning the division title in the downtrodden NFC South.

The loss to the Cowboys meant there were no illusions about the 2022 Bucs’ shortcomings. All of the warts were exposed in the defeat, which is a good thing heading into the Bucs offseason.

A closer loss, perhaps 31-28, might have given the team some false hope or covered up some deficiencies in certain areas. Now it’s stunningly clear where Tampa Bay has improve, and that should aid Bowles and Licht in building the 2023 roster in the Bucs’ offseason.

Offense

Bucs QB Tom Brady and OC Byron Leftwich – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs are already addressing one of the least explosive and most predictable offenses in the league by replacing offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and some assistants on the offensive side of the ball. Determining whether Tom Brady will return or if the Bucs need to go in a different direction at quarterback is the first offseason priority – along with finding a new play-caller.

Regardless of who the coordinator is and who is under center, Tampa Bay must get faster, more explosive weapons on offense. The Bucs were awful in the red zone and on third downs, especially third-and-10 or more and third-and-1 situations, and a new system and play-caller should address those areas in the offseason.

The Bucs also need to do a far better job of running the ball in 2023. Bowles knows this is a pass-first league, but also sees the need for much better balance on offense. He wants an offensive coordinator that can marry the run game to the pass game and be creative and unpredictable.

Defense

There were also some shortcomings on Bowles’ side of the ball. Tampa Bay’s red zone defense was exposed against Dallas, as four of the Cowboys’ five touchdowns came inside the 20-yard line. The other one came from 22 yards out. The Bucs defense only held the Cowboys to one field goal in the playoff loss.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs defense allowed the Falcons to score three red zone touchdowns along with three field goals in the 31-17 loss in the regular season finale. Tampa Bay surrendered two red zone touchdowns and allowed a 24-yard touchdown pass in a 30-24 Week 17 win over Carolina. The Panthers were held to just one field goal.

The Bucs’ pass rush was nonexistent as Vita Vea recorded the team’s lone sack. Vea was the leading sacker in 2022 with just 6.5 sacks. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka finished the year with only four sacks, which was a disappointment and matched his total from his rookie season. It’s clear Tampa Bay missed Shaq Barrett, and the fact he’ll be 30 next year and coming off a torn Achilles tendon is a big concern.

Bowles said he needs more production from the outside linebackers moving forward and he’s right. He’ll also need to find a new outside linebackers coach this offseason to help in that endeavor, as Bob Sanders retired.

There is a lot of work to be done during the Bucs’ offseason in terms of building the 2023 roster and coaching staff. But at least the end of the 2022 season clearly identified where Tampa Bay needs to improve.

FAB 2. Bucs Offseason: A Look At Current Depth Chart

Pewter Report will release its first official seven-round mock draft of the 2023 Bucs offseason on Sunday. It’s a nearly impossible task to predict which players the Bucs will draft because the team has 23 free agents, including quarterback Tom Brady and nine players who started at least one game on defense.

The Bucs have plenty of holes and some of those will have to be addressed in free agency first. Here is a list of the 26 players slated to be free agents in Tampa Bay in 2023.

UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS

QB Tom Brady
LB Lavonte David
CB Jamel Dean
DL Akiem Hicks
DL Will Gholston
S Mike Edwards
S Logan Ryan
S Keanu Neal
OLB Anthony Nelson
CB Sean Murphy-Bunting
DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches
OLB Carl Nassib
WR Julio Jones
WR Scotty Miller
WR Breshad Perriman
QB Blaine Gabbert
RB Giovani Bernard
OT Josh Wells
G Aaron Stinnie
DL Pat O‘Connor
OLB Genard Avery
DL Deadrin Senat
TE Kyle Rudolph

EXCLUSIVE RIGHTS FREE AGENTS

OL Nick Leverett
CB Dee Delaney

RESTRICTED FREE AGENT

OLB Cam Gill

When looking at Bucs offseason needs in free agency and the draft, it’s helpful to look at the team’s current depth chart, which isn’t pretty. The expected starters are in bold.

BUCS DEPTH CHART – OFFENSE

QB Kyle Trask
RB Rachaad White / Leonard Fournette / Ke’Shawn Vaughn / Patrick Laird
WR Mike Evans / Chris Godwin / Russell Gage / Deven Thompkins / Kaylon Geiger
TE Cade Otton / Ko Kieft / Cam Brate / David Wells / Dominique Dafney
OT Tristan Wirfs / Donovan Smith / Brandon Walton / Justin Skule / Dylan Cook / Grant Hermanns
G Shaq Mason / Nick Leverett (ERFA) / Luke Goedeke / John Molchon / Michael Niese
C Ryan Jensen / Robert Hainsey

Bucs WR Russell Gage and Saints DB Justin Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANALYSIS: The biggest takeaway here is the quarterback position, of course. Trask is the only one under contract. Will Brady return? That is the biggest question. Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Griffin might return if Brady does. If Brady does not return, the QB room will look vastly different in 2023 as the Bucs would likely sign a veteran and could draft another young signal caller to challenge Trask.

Three veterans to keep an eye on as potential salary cap cuts are Fournette, Smith and Gage. The Bucs might be ready to turn the running game over to White and could draft another back to replace Fournette. Releasing Smith, who will turn 30 and is in a contract year after his worst season, would create a huge need at offensive tackle in this draft. Gage underwhelmed and may not be worth $10 million per season. Brate, the veteran tight end, is all but guaranteed to be released in a cap-cutting move.

Despite what you may think of Goedeke, the organization is high on him. And the return of Jensen at center means Hainsey, Goedeke and Leverett will battle for the left guard job. Leverett is an exclusive rights free and will return in 2023. The Bucs have plenty of guards on the roster and don’t need to draft one.

BUCS DEPTH CHART – DEFENSE

DL Vita Vea / Logan Hall / Mike Greene / Willington Previlon
OLB Shaq Barrett / Joe Tryon-Shoyinka / Cam Gill (RFA) / Hamilcar Rasheed / Charles Snowden
ILB Devin White / KJ Britt / Ulysees Gilbert / J.J. Russell
CB Carlton Davis III / Dee Delaney (ERFA) Zyon McCollum / Anthony Chesley / Don Gardner / Duron Lowe
S Antoine Winfield Jr. / Nolan Turner

Bucs Ss Antoine Winfield Jr. and Mike Edwards – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANALYSIS: The Bucs have some big needs on defense, as most of the team’s veterans are free agents this offseason. Akiem Hicks, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Will Gholston, Deadrin Senat and Pat O’Connor are all core defensive linemen and are unrestricted free agents. Not all will return. The Bucs expect Hall, last year’s top pick, to gain 20 pounds of muscle and bulk this offseason and start next to Vea.

Tampa Bay will certainly miss veteran Lavonte David if he doesn’t return. The 33-year old was the Bucs’ best and most consistent defender last year, and there is no reserve ready to step in and start.

The secondary has even more free agents, especially at safety where Logan Ryan, Mike Edwards and Keanu Neal aren’t under contract in 2023. Look for two out of the three to possibly return on one-year, prove-it deals, but the Bucs will likely have to add another safety in the draft. At cornerback, the Bucs may not be able to afford Jamel Dean in free agency. If Sean Murphy-Bunting returns, it would likely be on a cheap, one-year prove-it deal unless he gets a better contract elsewhere in free agency.

BUCS DEPTH CHART – SPECIAL TEAMS

K Ryan Succop / Jake Verity
P Jake Camarda
LS Zach Triner

ANALYSIS: Camarda had a really good rookie season and Triner is a quality long snapper. The Bucs might want an upgrade at kicker, where Succop can no longer reliably connect from beyond 47 yards.

There’s plenty of work to be done this Bucs offseason in assembling the 2023 roster by head coach Todd Bowles, general manager Jason Licht and his scouting staff. But first, Licht and vice president of football administration Mike Greenberg will need to address the team’s salary cap situation, which is far from ideal.

FAB 3. Bucs Offseason: Expected To Tread Lightly In Free Agency

Whether quarterback Tom Brady returns for the 2023 season or not, don’t expect Tampa Bay to go all-in when free agency starts. The Bucs have kicked the salary cap can down the road enough since the 2020 season and now have to start paying off the Super Bowl credit card.

Bucs brass: Jason Licht, John Spytek and Mike Greenberg – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay won’t be in full rebuild mode if Brady returns, but the team just doesn’t have the cap room to justify making any huge free agent additions. The Bucs are currently $54,833,921 over the 2023 salary cap and have 23 unrestricted free agents, a pair of exclusive rights free agents and a restricted free agent to contemplate signing.

Bucs general manager Jason Licht and vice president of football administration Mike Greenberg, the team’s capologist, will have to do some maneuvering to become cap compliant this Bucs offseason. And then, the team will need to create some room to sign some of its own free agents and possibly others. Pewter Report’s Josh Queipo recently outlined how the team can do that this Bucs offseason.

The reason the Bucs need to be conservative with their spending this offseason is not just the 2023 salary cap. It’s saving some room for some upcoming big contracts that will affect the team’s cap space in 2024 and beyond. Devin White is entering his fifth-year option season and a new contract worth $20 million or more is waiting beyond that. The Ravens made Roquan Smith the highest-paid linebacker in the league this offseason with a five-year, $100 million contract.

Next up will be safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who is entering a contract year and will cash in on a deal worth at least $12 million per season, depending on how he plays this year. Right tackle Tristan Wirfs is a perennial Pro Bowler who will almost assuredly get his fifth-year option picked up in 2024. After that, Wirfs is looking at a deal worth at least $20 million per season.

Because the Bucs have some dead cap money coming due because of voidable years, they will most likely refrain from doing multiple-year deals in free agency if they can help it. None of the five players listed below are currently under contract, but will negatively impact the team’s cap in 2023.

Dead Cap Money From Voidable Years
QB Tom Brady – $35,104,000
LB Lavonte David – $6,855,000
DT Akiem Hicks – $4,903,295
WR Julio Jones – $3,456,236
DL Will Gholston – $2,400,000

Bucs S Logan Ryan and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay won’t be signing many multiple-year deals this offseason in free agency. The team is regretting the three-year, $30 million it gave to receiver Russell Gage last offseason. Gage did catch a career-high five touchdowns in his first season in Tampa Bay, but really underwhelmed with just 51 catches for 426 yards and a career-low 8.4-yard average.

Don’t be surprised if the Bucs contemplate releasing Gage, which would save $2.833 million in cap space. The Bucs could find a rookie receiver who could get that kind of production at a much cheaper price tag.

The Bucs will be looking for cheap, one-year, prove-it deals in free agency, similar to what the team gave Shaquil Barrett in 2019, Leonard Fournette and Antonio Brown in 2020 and 2021, and Logan Ryan and Keanu Neal last spring. Tampa Bay might not be active in the first wave of free agency, and instead wait until the second week of free agency to do some bargain hunting.

FAB 4. Bucs Offseason: The Need For Speed

The Bucs were one of the slowest teams on offense in the entire league last season. Tampa Bay’s lack of speed and explosiveness contributed mightily to the team’s scoring average falling from 30 points per game in 2021 to just 18.4 points per game in 2022.

Tampa Bay had just two players average over 10 yards per catch last season with a minimum of 10 catches. Last year, the Bucs had seven players on offense with at least 10 catches average over 10 yards per catch, including five over 13 yards per reception.

Mike Evans led the way with 14.6 yards per catch, which was up slightly from a year ago when he posted a 14-yard average. Next was Julio Jones, who averaged 12.5 yards per catch, but that was a career low for the 33-year old veteran.

Chris Godwin, who led the team with 104 catches, averaged just 9.8 yards, which was a career low. Russell Gage’s 8.4-yard average was also a career low for the fifth-year receiver.

Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Russell Gage – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Rookie tight end Cade Otton averaged just 9.3 yards per catch, while veteran Cam Brate averaged a career-low 8.7 yards per reception. Both were far cries from the 14.6-yard average Rob Gronkowski posted in 2021.

Tampa Bay’s running game wasn’t exactly a strength in 2021, yet all four backs averaged at least 4.2 yards per carry. Leonard Fournette averaged 4.5 yards per carry, while Ronald Jones II averaged 4.2. Reserve Ke’Shawn Vaughn averaged five yards per carry.

The Bucs had the league’s worst rushing attack in 2022, averaging 75.6 yards per game. Rookie Rachaad White led the way with 3.7 yards per carry, while Fournette averaged 3.5 yards. Vaughn’s average plummeted to just 3.1 yards.

Head coach Todd Bowles discussed the team needing to add more speed in the Bucs offseason on the latest addition of the Bucs Total Access radio program.

“Fast, smart and tough,” Bowles said. “Everyone’s looking for that, but that’s kind of what you are looking for. I think we need to get faster all the way around. Definitely we need to play smarter. And we definitely like tough guys.”

Bowles said the team’s current players also need to improve their speed by training harder in the offseason program.

“It starts with the offseason,” Bowles said. “With COVID finally being over, we need to have a solid offseason. It was okay last year. It needs to be more solid this year. I think we need to be faster all the way around. I think we need more team speed. Me and Jason talk about that all the time. So that’s the start of it and that’s the beginning of it. We’ll kind of build it around that and see who we can sign and who we can’t sign. We’ll kind of formulate our plan of building the team that way.”

The Bucs desperately need more speed at wide receiver and running back, and could use more speed at tight end. On defense, Tampa Bay could use more quickness and explosiveness upfront, faster linebackers outside of Devin White, and more speed in the secondary to help in coverage and in pursuit.

FAB 5. SR’s Buc Shots

• BOWLES NOW FULLY IN CHARGE: This Bucs offseason will be different from years past now that head coach Todd Bowles is fully in charge. Bowles was promoted to replace former head coach Bruce Arians on March 30 last year, which was very late into the Bucs’ offseason. He didn’t have a chance to make any changes to the coaching staff until this year, firing offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, running backs coach Todd McNair, wide receivers coach Kevin Garver and a few others. Bowles outlined how this Bucs offseason will differ from years past on the Bucs Total Access radio program.

“It changes because you get to set your own schedule,” Bowles said. “You get to get what type of guys you’re looking for. You get to talk to guys and get their input on things and coaches and how we want to do things going forward. I think it reshapes the dynamic of the team, and you get to have a lot more input on what kind of team you want. I’m not saying we didn’t have a good team. But you always have different inputs that you want, and still, when it’s March 30 the schedule is set, the calendar is set and you’re close to the draft. Everything is kind of where it was and you have to go through the year that way. But this year you get to tweak some things that you want to tweak and not to rush into it.”

• SUCCOP BEING REPLACED? Will the Bucs look at replacing veteran kicker Ryan Succop this offseason? Succop connected on 31-of-38 field goals (81.6%), which was his worst year out of the three seasons he’s been in Tampa Bay. The veteran kicker, who will turn 37 in September, was only 2-of-7 on field goals 50 yards and longer. The Bucs’ offseason could see the team cut Succop and save $3.25 million in cap space, according to OverTheCap.com.

“I think Ryan was very efficient this year, but we have to be able kick longer field goals than we’ve kicked,” Bowles said. “I think we have to get past the 47 yards, and be able to kick from 50 and some 55-yarders as well, but he was very efficient.”

• 2 CAN’T-MISS BUCS ARTICLES: I authored two must-read Bucs columns over the past week that have received plenty of good feedback. The first was last week’s SR’s Fab 5 column, which went Inside The Bucs’ Change At Offensive Coordinator and detailed what led to Byron Leftwich’s dismissal.

The second one is Bucs Have BIG Offseason Puzzle To Put Together, which details five big Bucs offseason moves the team will need to make – in order – in the coming weeks. Both of these articles will help readers understand what the Bucs are looking for in a new offensive coordinator, too.

• THE FIRST PEWTER REPORT BUCS 7-ROUND MOCK DRAFT: Pewter Report’s Bucs offseason coverage rolls on next week with our first 2023 Bucs’ 7-Round Mock Draft, which will be published on Sunday morning. That’s followed by a week’s worth of Senior Bowl coverage as the Pewter Report staff will be reporting live from Mobile, Ala. Be sure to stay tuned to Pewter Report.com for all the latest stories, analysis and inside scoop.

THIS WEEK’S PEWTER REPORT PODCASTS

• BUCS OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR SEARCH ON THE PEWTER REPORT PODCAST: The Pewter Report Podcast is energized by CELSIUS and broadcasts four live episodes each week. We’re in the offseason now, so PR Podcasts will be featured on Mondays and Tuesdays at 4:00 p.m. ET and Wednesdays and Thursdays at 7:00 p.m. ET. Subscribe to PewterReportTV on YouTube and click on notifications and you’ll be informed about when the next podcast will be broadcast.

Matt Matera and Scott Reynolds discussed whether Tom Brady will return to the Bucs or not in 2023 on Monday’s show.

Matera and Reynolds detailed which players were priorities to resign in free agency during the Bucs offseason on Tuesday’s podcast.

Matera discussed the start of the Bucs’ offensive coordinator interviews on Wednesday night.

Matera, Josh Queipo and Adam Slivon discussed the Bucs’ free agency dilemma on Thursday night.

Watch the Pewter Report Podcasts live on our PewterReportTV channel on YouTube.com and please subscribe (it’s free) and add your comments. We archive all Pewter Report Podcasts. So, you can watch the recorded episodes if you missed them live.

There is no better time to listen to or watch a new Pewter Report Podcast – energized by CELSIUS – than Friday afternoon on the way home from work. Or early Saturday morning during your workout or while running errands.

The popularity of the Pewter Report Podcast continues to grow. In addition to listening to the Pewter Report Podcasts on PewterReport.com, you can also subscribe to the free podcasts at PodBean by clicking here and on SoundCloud by clicking here. And of course, the Pewter Report Podcast is also available on iTunes and YouTube. Make sure you subscribe so you don’t miss a single episode.