One of the most impressive parts of the Bucs’ stellar offensive year has been the development of their two-running back, one tight end, 21 personnel “Pony package.” The niche package has taken the league by storm and has been the subject of not just us at Pewter Report, but many others across the league.

The Bucs have run 21 personnel on just 20 snaps this season

they’ve gained 224 yards on those plays and scored three touchdowns

that is ridiculous https://t.co/FmhP8ghrHA

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) October 8, 2024

This package has been one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL throughout most of the year. But some may have noticed that the performance of the Bucs’ two-back offense has slowed in recent weeks.

Has The “Pony” Been Put Back In The Barn?

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It hasn’t been very noticeable. But the Bucs haven’t been as successful with both Rachaad White and Bucky Irving on the field. That hasn’t stopped Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud from advocating for the use of the package in end of game situations with the team down multiple scores despite the fact that the appeal of the grouping is how it can build off of the threat of the run.

Regardless of situation, the shine may have worn off as defenses get more tape and opportunity to prepare for it. Consider that over the past two weeks the Bucs have run the Pony package on 10 plays. On those plays they have gained just 44 yards. And 19 of those yards came on just one play against the Chargers.

Take that out and Tampa Bay is averaging just 2.8 yards per play and the overall median gain over these past two games is just 2.5. Their success rate, while still an impressive 64% on the season has fallen to just 40% since week 15 with no explosives and just two first downs gained.

Small Changes Have Led To Limited Success

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

There hasn’t been very much change that can be pointed to as a reason for the decline in production. Their run rate and motion rates have been marginally different. Bucs have run out of 21 personnel 60% of the time in the last two weeks as compared to 51% on the season. And motion has climbed from 80 to 90%. But in such a small sample size that is the difference in just a single play.

Interestingly, the one notable difference has been the change in run game. A total of 43% of their runs have been split or jet zone, while they have run just one counter. As we have detailed throughout the season, the Bucs aren’t at their most effective running zone, while gap-based runs, and especially counter, have been their bread and butter.

Two of those split flows came this past week against the Cowboys. The Bucs got to split/jet flow by motioning Rachaad White from the outside No. 1 receiver into a jet motion rather than using tight end Payne Durham as the motion blocker. Instead, offensive coordinator Liam Coen opted to leave Durham on the front side of the run calls to seal the edge. This is something that Durham is better suited for than blocking on the move.

The Necessary Evolution Of Pony From Bucs OC Liam Coen

Bucs OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

With well over 50 plays on tape, defenses have plenty of information that they are using to limit the Bucs. Formationally, defenses like to work in nickel to match athletes. Theoretically, this should help the Bucs to run more effectively, but that hasn’t been the case.

Perhaps that is because there is some predictability to how they are running. Whether it is the jet/split motion or counter, Tampa Bay has consistently faked a handoff to the first back near the ball. The thought being that the defense has to respect that initial fake and commit movement to the direction of that lead back. This allows the Bucs to then get a numbers advantage in the opposite direction with the second back.

But that only works if the defense truly respects the first run action. Without the occasional commitment to the first handoff defenses have been sitting on the second counter. Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen has a prime opportunity in Week 17 against the Panthers to pop a big run by simply committing to the initial back and seeing if he can’t win the front battle outright in the first direction. From there he can once again start to layer in more counters including a double play action into a screen to the first back.

Coen has spent most of this season dealing body blows to the NFL from Pony, but it looks like defenses have found some counters of their own and started to fight back. Count on the Bucs’ play-caller to get off the mat and start throwing haymakers soon.