BUCS at PANTHERS
WHEN: Sunday, January 7, 2024 | WHERE: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC) | KICKOFF: 1:00 p.m. ET | TV: FOX
PLAY-BY-PLAY: Kenny Albert | ANALYST: Jonathan Vilma | SIDELINE: Shannon Spake
RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives
Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.
Scott Reynolds: Bucs Should Win This Game, But Won’t – In Disappointing Fashion
The Bucs should win this game and ride into the postseason winning five of the last six games, and making amends for last week’s clunker against the Saints. Tampa Bay should win its third consecutive NFC South title by beating a 2-14 team without anything to play for except for pride in Week 18. But I could totally see the Bucs losing this game for a variety of reasons – starting with the shaky health of quarterback Baker Mayfield, who will play with sore ribs on Sunday.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today
How will Mayfield’s rib injury affect the velocity and accuracy of his throws in Carolina? How will he fare if he takes a big hit or is sacked? Will Kyle Trask see action due to injury or ineffectiveness? Would Trask be up to the task of winning a game with everything on the line in Week 18? Because of these questions, I have a hard time picking Tampa Bay to prevail.
Let’s not forget that the Panthers only lost to the Bucs 21-18 a month ago in a game that was a little too close for comfort. Carolina outrushed Tampa Bay, 133-128, and Chuba Hubbard had his only 100-yard game of the season and scored two touchdowns in that narrow loss. The last time the Bucs played in Carolina, they lost to a bad Panthers team with Tom Brady being out-dueled by fourth-string QB P.J. Walker. The Panthers won, 21-3, thanks in part to rushing for 179 yards – against a defense that had linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White on the field, mind you.
I could see the Bucs come out swinging, looking to rebound from such a dismal showing at home last week. I could see Tampa Bay winning the NFC South at the last moment and having some momentum heading into a home playoff game. But I could also see the Panthers jumping out to a lead, getting some early confidence and the Bucs playing super tight and pensive as a result.
I hope I’m wrong, but I could see Todd Bowles’ team end the season with the most disappointing loss of the year, too.
REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Panthers 23, Bucs 20
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 10-6
Matt Matera: Bucs Clinch The NFC South Division In An Uneasy Game
This whole season has been a roller coaster for the Bucs, so why shouldn’t this game be a roller coaster too? While the Bucs should win and probably will, is it going to come that easy? I don’t necessarily think so.
In most cases when you face a division opponent for the second time, you can look at the first game and apply some parts of the game to the second contest. But because it monsooned a couple weeks ago when the Bucs played the Panthers in Tampa, how much can we figure out?
Bucs ILB Lavonte David – Photo by: USA Today
One aspect we can look at is the ability to stop the Panthers in the run game. Last time, Chuba Hubbard went for over 100 yards rushing against the Bucs, which is the only time he’s eclipsed the century mark this season.
If you recall, though, Tampa Bay was without Lavonte David and Devin White, plus K.J. Britt got injured in the first quarter. That left J.J. Russell and Ryan Neal, who had to move from safety to linebacker for this game, to hold it down. With a much healthier group this time around, especially having David, they will take out Carolina’s rushing attempts.
The Bucs offense trying to run the ball is another story. They found success during their four-game winning streak, but were stymied over the last two games. Carolina has allowed over 120+ yards in three of their last five games, including its first contest with Tampa Bay. It’s a great opportunity for Rachaad White to regain his form and reach 1,000 yards.
Of course, the big question in this is the full health of Baker Mayfield and his rib injury. Mayfield was throwing the ball around in practice, but to the extent of how much he’ll be limited on Sunday will only be known by Mayfield and select few. The Bucs must keep him upright. If they can, it probably means another big game for Mike Evans, while Chris Godwin can get over 1,000 yards receiving. It’s win or go home for the Bucs. I think they win a tough game and punch their ticket to the postseason.
MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 25, Panthers 17
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 9-7
Bailey Adams: Bucs Manage To Get The Job Done In Carolina
It would be nothing short of a disaster if the Bucs lose this game. To win four games in a row and set up two win-and-in scenarios only to whiff on both and miss the playoffs at 8-9 would be one of the bigger choke jobs in franchise history, and it would almost surely cost Todd Bowles his job. In fact, I think it would make for an easy decision from the higher-ups at One Buc Place. With coaching changes come some roster turnover too, so there will be players potentially playing for their jobs while Bowles and his staff coach for theirs.
The good news here is that I don’t see the Bucs losing this game (though that could be bad news if you
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
think my bad run of predictions is concrete and the opposite of what I say will happen). Tampa Bay has the much more talented roster and has so much more to play for than 2-14 Carolina. The last meeting between these two teams was close, though, and I think it may be a sweat-it-out type of game for the Bucs again.
Baker Mayfield’s health is the big question mark. I believe he’ll play, but how much will that rib injury affect him? Will his range of motion be the same, or will his accuracy be impacted by the pain? Can he finish the game, or will there be an emergence of Kyle Trask in the biggest game of the season? All of that said, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will give either quarterback some room to relax, while a rebound from Rachaad White after two down weeks would be a big help as well.
What this ultimately comes down to is that I just don’t think the Carolina offense has enough in it to outscore much of anyone in this league right now. Bryce Young has very little help, and his rookie season has been largely forgettable as a result. Chuba Hubbard had a big day the last time these two teams squared off, but with the Bucs actually having their corps of linebackers for this game, I think the run game won’t replicate that type of success for the Panthers.
In the end, I have Tampa Bay doing enough on offense while putting together a solid defensive effort en route to a win. The victory will save Bowles’ job — at least for a week. Whether the Bucs win or lose their home playoff game the following week might be the real decider of his future with the team.
ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Panthers 16
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 8-8
Josh Queipo: Bucs Make Playoffs In Low-Scoring Affair
After an onslaught of offense and points scored during a four-game win streak, the Bucs came back down to Earth against the Saints. The Saints have a top-10 defense and it showed as they slowed Tampa Bay’s offense to just 13 points. And now with quarterback Baker Mayfield slowed by a rib injury, I expect points to once again be at a premium in Week 18.
Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
The Panthers have a solid defense, although not nearly as good as the Saints. And they gave the Bucs problems in a rain-soaked affair in Raymond James Stadium just five weeks ago. The forecast for Sunday calls for clear skies that should play more to the Bucs offense’s advantage.
On the other side of the ball, the Panthers offense is still one of the absolute worst in the NFL. Their passing attack is only bested (worsted?) by the inept units brandished by the Jets and the Patriots. First-overall pick Bryce Young has only looked good against the Packers (and what quarterback doesn’t look good against the Packers?).
The Bucs defense isn’t the top-ten unit it was several seasons ago, but it has enough firepower and is getting healthy at the right time enough to hold off a Panthers offense that actually generates more EPA/play when running than passing.
It shouldn’t be a high-scoring affair. But it should be a welcome sight for Bucs fans as it will result in the Bucs reaching the playoffs.
QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 21, Panthers 14
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 10-6
Adam Slivon: It’ll Be Close, But Bucs Will Prevail To Win NFC South
Can you believe it?! It’s Week 18 of the NFL season already. There is no bigger game for the Bucs than this Sunday, as they head up to Carolina looking to defeat the lowly Panthers. Don’t get it misconstrued, as anything can happen on any given Sunday. The 2-14 Carolina squad gave Tampa Bay a run for its money in Week 13 as the Bucs eeked out a 21-18 win. There are no excuses now, but a big factor in this game will be the status of Baker Mayfield.
Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
Facing his former team with a division title on the line, it’s a certainty that Mayfield attempts to go as there is little that keeps him sidelined. But just how close to 100% will he be? In the first matchup of these two teams, he struggled, completing just 14 of 29 passes for 202 yards and throwing a touchdown and an interception. Can he do better this time around while being affected by his ribs?
If there is a strength of this Panthers team, it is the defense. As Mike Evans said on Thursday, they’re going to fight and they have quite a bit of depth in their secondary.
“They’re a scrappy team,” Evans said. “[The] last time we played them, I know it was raining, but they have some really good corners. Like four or five really good corners that can play the nickel spot and outside, so we [have] to come with it.”
That’s not to mention having guys like Derrick Brown, Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu in the front seven. It could be tough sledding for the Bucs if they don’t get out to an early lead, but on paper, their own defense should be able to handle Bryce Young and company.
Young has been sacked 59 times this year, and with their offensive line doing a poor job of protecting him, it could be a game where Tampa Bay can dial up blitzes and apply quite a bit of pressure on the rookie quarterback. Adam Thielen and DJ Chark Jr. will be the top two targets in the passing game, but they will be without Jonathan Mingo, who caught eight of ten targets for 69 yards against the Bucs earlier in the season.
This game could come down to who can run the ball more effectively, as Rachaad White and Chuba Hubbard both had big days for their respective teams the first time around. While anything can happen between a team attempting to play spoiler and a team that should be hungry for the playoffs, I expect the Bucs to come out with a heightened sense of urgency and survive in their regular season finale.
SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 23, Panthers 17
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 11-5
