After two straight road losses, the Bucs are 4-7 and creeping closer to a top-10 pick in the 2024 Draft than a third straight NFC South title. Yet Tampa Bay is only one game out of the division lead and with games coming up against the Falcons and Saints over the next five weeks, there’s still time for Todd Bowles and his team to save face and make the playoffs for a fourth straight year.

The margins are small for the Bucs now, though. Losing a toss-up game to the Colts has given them no room for error, as they’re three games under .500 with six games to go. That’s what makes Sunday’s game against the 1-10 Panthers so important. If Tampa Bay loses this game at home to last-place Carolina, Bowles can start packing his bags and the players can start planning vacations for the second weekend in January. But a win and suddenly the Bucs are right back in the mix, even at 5-7.

The Bucs and Panthers don’t kick off until 4:05, so the early NFC South games will be very intriguing to watch. The Saints host the 8-3 Lions, who will be pissed off and on extra rest after a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers. That’s a potential loss there for New Orleans, which would open the door right back up for Tampa Bay to make a move up if it beats Carolina.

Atlanta travels to face the Jets, which might prove tricky given the strength of New York’s defense and how inconsistent the Atlanta offense is. Losses by both the Saints and Falcons combined with a Bucs win would have three teams tied atop the division at 5-7.

So, yes, while last week felt like a must-win game and Tampa Bay lost it, this one at Raymond James Stadium in Week 13 is yet another must-win. It’s time for the leaders on this team to rally the locker room and make a push for the playoffs. Otherwise, the rest of the December will turn into jockeying for draft positioning.

The Last Time…

Bucs QB Tom Brady and WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

There were extremely high stakes the last time these two teams met, which was at Raymond James Stadium on New Year’s Day earlier this calendar year. Tampa Bay kicked off 2023 by coming from behind at halftime to beat Carolina 30-24, clinching the NFC South for a second straight year. The Panthers led 14-0 early before the Bucs cut it to 14-10 before the break.

From there, it was Mike Evans who took over the game. Having already caught a 63-yard touchdown in the second quarter, Evans caught touchdown passes of 57 and 30 yards in the fourth quarter to give the Bucs a 24-21 lead. A Tom Brady quarterback sneak for a 1-yard touchdown and a game-saving play by Jake Camarda later, Tampa Bay was the top dog in the division again.

Evans caught 10 passes for 207 yards and three touchdowns in that game. Brady threw for 432 yards and those three scores while rushing for another, while Devin White and Vita Vea recovered fumbles. Sean Murphy-Bunting also intercepted Sam Darnold in the win.

Carolina leads the all-time series with Tampa Bay 25-20, though the Bucs have won five of the last six games. The Panthers do have a 12-10 edge when the two teams meet in Tampa.

How The Bucs And Panthers Are Trending

The last time they were at Raymond James Stadium, the Bucs beat the Titans 20-6 to stop a four-game losing streak. At the time, they got within one game of .500 before a two-game road trip. It wasn’t a perfect win over Tennessee, but it at least seemed like they had the potential to turn things around. The loss to San Francisco the following week was expected, and because they weren’t able to steal that game against the 49ers, they found themselves needing to beat a Colts team on similar footing as them on the last weekend of November.

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. and Colts RB Jonathan Taylor – Photo by: USA Today

When it came time for that game in Indianapolis, Tampa Bay couldn’t come through. So now, that win over the Titans on Nov. 12 no longer looks like a “stop the bleeding” moment. Instead, it looks like the outlier as the team has lost six of its last seven games. At 4-7, the Bucs are currently in possession of the No. 7 pick in the 2024 Draft. If the goal is the playoffs, they’re trending in the wrong direction. If the goal is building toward the future, they’re doing a good job.

After hosting the Panthers, the Bucs have a pivotal Week 14 matchup against the division-leading Falcons in Atlanta. From there, they have a road trip to 5-6 Green Bay and then two straight holiday home games — Christmas Eve against the 8-3 Jaguars and New Year’s Eve against the 5-6 Saints. They then wrap up the regular season at the start of January with the return trip to face the 1-10 Panthers in Charlotte.

There’s only one way the Panthers have trended this year, and that’s way down. They’re 1-10. The season began with six straight losses before a shocking 15-13 win over the Texans in Week 8. Since then, they’ve lost four straight and just fired head coach Frank Reich only 11 games into his tenure. The entire organization is in disarray under owner David Tepper, and even ending up with the league’s worst record won’t net the No. 1 overall pick. Because the Panthers traded up in this year’s draft to select quarterback Bryce Young with the top pick, their first-round selection in 2024 belongs to Chicago.

Carolina is 0-6 on the road this year and just lost away from home last week, falling 17-10 in Tennessee. This is the second of a three-game road swing, as the Panthers — under interim head coach Chris Tabor — head to New Orleans in Week 14. Home games against Atlanta and Green Bay follow, then they hit Jacksonville before their Week 18 finale at home against the Bucs.

Here’s how the Bucs and Panthers stack up heading into Week 13:

Bucs Offense: T-23rd in scoring offense (19.3 PPG), 22nd in total offense (304.1 yards per game), 15th in passing offense (222.8 yards per game), 31st in rushing offense (81.3 yards per game)

Panthers Offense: 29th in scoring offense (15.7 PPG), 30th in total offense (265.9 yards per game), 30th in passing offense (173.3 yards per game), 28th in rushing offense (92.6 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 13th in scoring defense (20.6 points allowed per game), 27th in total defense (363.7 yards allowed per game), 31st in passing defense (267.8 yards allowed per game), 9th in rushing defense (95.9 yards allowed per game)

Panthers Defense: 30th in scoring defense (26.5 points allowed per game), 6th in total defense (304.5 yards allowed per game), 5th in passing defense (179.6 yards allowed per game), 24th in rushing defense (124.9 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday night, the Bucs are 5.5-point favorites, with an Over/Under set at 37 points (per mybookie.ag).

What Might Decide This Bucs-Panthers Matchup?

Bucs OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The key to this game for the Bucs might be what happens early on. Tampa Bay has struggled to do the things necessary to win games late, with the Atlanta, Houston and Indianapolis games as the prime examples. Getting out to an early lead on Carolina may squash any hopes the visitors have to benefit from a rally around their interim head coach.

The problem with that is the fact that the Panthers don’t allow a lot of points early — particularly in the first quarter. They’ve allowed just 33 first-quarter points in 11 games and only one first-drive touchdown. The Bucs have yet to score a touchdown on their opening possession this season.

Ironically, where the Bucs might find some explosive plays and most of their success offensively is on the ground. The Panthers struggle to stop the run, and while Tampa Bay still has the second-to-last-ranked rushing attack in the league, Rachaad White could be in for a big day. White is coming off of a 100-yard rushing day — the second of his career — against the Colts last week and could be the key to getting Dave Canales‘ offense going on Sunday. From there, it’ll be about Baker Mayfield protecting the football and getting the ball to his playmakers, namely Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

For the Tampa Bay defense, getting to Bryce Young is everything. The Carolina offensive line is one of the league’s worst, and Young has been sacked 40 times in 10 games. Todd Bowles‘ defense brought the heat against another rookie quarterback in Will Levis three weeks ago, sacking him four times and totaling 13 quarterback hits. Getting to Young early and knocking him around a bit — while maybe forcing a turnover or two — would help the Bucs get on top and stay on top throughout the afternoon and evening.

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III – Photo by: USA Today

As far as the Panthers are concerned, protecting Young and giving him time to attack Tampa Bay’s suspect secondary is what it might be all about. The run game with Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders is unlikely to do the type of damage that Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss did last week, so getting big plays through the air against the likes of Carlton Davis III, Jamel Dean (if he returns to action), Zyon McCollum and the rest of the Bucs secondary is Carolina’s path to staying in the game and having a chance to steal it late.

Defensively, the Panthers must find a way to generate takeaways. That’s something they’ve failed to do all year, but if they’re going to win this game — or any other games down the stretch — they’ll need one or two game-changing plays from their defense.

Vonn Bell, Troy Hill, Kamu Grugier-Hill, Sam Franklin Jr. and Deion Jones have interceptions this season, but the team has only two fumble recoveries to go with those five picks. Forcing Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense into mistakes and stealing a possession or two is how the Panthers could come away with the upset at Raymond James Stadium.

And as simple as it sounds, a lot of this contest may come down to will/desire/”want to”/”give a damn” — whatever you want to call it. Are the Bucs mentally tough enough to correct their correctable mistakes at last? Can they pull it together and make a run toward the playoffs over the last six games?

Or have they checked out after losing six of seven? What about the Panthers? Will they rally under their interim coach or is it going to be a sleep walk toward the finish line this season? The Bucs are by far the more talented team, but the energy has to match the talent for them to win on Sunday.

Key Players to Watch

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

As much as the Bucs need Rachaad White to have a big day against the Panthers’ porous run defense, the offense in so many ways is reliant on Mike Evans. Evans’ most recent game against Carolina saw him absolutely dominate and while a repeat performance may not be realistic to ask for, he needs to be a big part of things for Baker Mayfield and the offense to keep moving the chains, sustaining drives and scoring points. The 10th-year receiver is having a fantastic season, posting 54 catches for 850 yards and nine touchdowns.

Vita Vea may be one of the Bucs defenders familiarizing himself with Bryce Young on Sunday. The big nose tackle leads the team in sacks with 5.5 and he’ll be lined up against Carolina center Bradley Bozeman, who has allowed seven sacks this season. That’s tied with left tackle Ikem Ekwonu for the most on the team, plus he’s allowed 24 pressures. Vea collapsing the pocket and notching a sack or two — or simply creating sacks for the edge rushers — would go a long way for Tampa Bay.

It’s quite telling that the Panthers’ big offensive playmaker is 33-year-old wide receiver Adam Thielen. He leads the team in every receiving category with 77 catches on 100 targets for 728 yards and four touchdowns. The next-closest receiver is rookie Jonathan Mingo out of Ole Miss. He only has 28 catches on 57 targets for 286 yards. So if Young and Thielen aren’t connecting on Sunday, the Bucs will feel good about their defense’s chances to cover the rest.

Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs and Panthers OLB Brian Burns – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Brian Burns is a difference-maker for the Carolina defense off the edge. He leads the team with six sacks and 11 tackles for loss. The closest to either of those totals is linebacker Frankie Luvu, who has 3.5 sacks and seven tackles for loss.

Burns will be a tough matchup for either Tampa Bay tackle, but may prove especially tricky for Tristan Wirfs if the All-Pro — now at left tackle and more likely to see a healthy dose of the Panthers’ top pass rusher — is still banged up.

Bucs vs. Panthers Game Information

When: Sunday, December 3
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS – Tom McCarthy (Play by Play), James Lofton & Jay Feely (Analyst), Tiffany Blackmon (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst)