After ending 2023 with a dud of a performance at home against the Saints, the 8-8 Bucs have no time to dwell on the past. They missed their first win-and-in opportunity in Week 17, but they can still win the NFC South with a road victory over the 2-14 Panthers on Sunday, the final day of the regular season.

Tampa Bay was once 4-7, so being 8-8 heading into Week 18 was never even close to a given. But it’s hard to not feel like the team missed a golden chance last week, as it could’ve wrapped up the division with a week to go and set up a chance to finish off a double digit-win regular season, which would’ve been the 10th in franchise history.

Now, the Bucs face a do-or-die season finale. This is a game and situation that massively favors them, which almost turns the pressure on even more. A loss to 2-14 Carolina would almost certainly end the Todd Bowles era in Tampa. Losing back-to-back hat and t-shirt games and missing the playoffs — after a four-game winning streak put them in prime position with two games to go — would be grounds for Bowles’ dismissal. In fact, it would make the decision pretty easy for Bucs decision-makers.

So, Bowles and Co. just need to win. A victory over the Panthers gives them the No. 4 seed in the NFC and a home playoff game against the NFC East runner-up — either the Eagles or Cowboys. A loss and the season is over, as the Falcons-Saints winner would then be NFC South champions.

The Last Time…

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The last meeting between these two teams was only last month, as the Bucs began their four-game winning streak with an unconvincing 21-18 home win over the Panthers. It was frustrating for Tampa Bay for much of the afternoon and evening. Carolina led 10-7 until a 75-yard touchdown pass from Baker Mayfield to Mike Evans with 4:54 left in the third quarter. Chris Godwin then made it a 21-10 game with 11:36 to go, rushing for a 19-yard touchdown.

Only that wasn’t the end, as an 11-play, 75-yard drive that took 6:34 ended in a 1-yard touchdown run by Chuba Hubbard. Bryce Young then ran for the two-point conversion, making it a 21-18 game. It ultimately took a late Antoine Winfield Jr. interception for the Bucs to hold on, but as much of a struggle as it was, that win sparked a run of four straight to get Tampa Bay into the driver’s seat atop the NFC South.

Carolina leads the all-time series between the two teams 25-21, though Tampa Bay is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. On Sunday, the Bucs will be looking to sweep the season series with the Panthers for the third time in four seasons.

How The Bucs And Panthers Are Trending

The Bucs are coming off an embarrassing 23-13 home loss to the Saints last week. The division was on the line and there for the taking, but Todd Bowles’ team came out looking more like the group that had lost six of seven over October and November than the one that came in as winners of four in a row. The progress that the offense showed during a three-game stretch that included 29-point, 34-point and 30-point performances was suddenly gone, while the defense couldn’t get off the field and struggled to contain New Orleans’ tight ends.

Bucs QB Kyle Trask – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Still, the work the Bucs did during their four-game winning streak wasn’t for nothing. In fact, those four wins combined with some help elsewhere had them in a position that meant they only needed to win one of their final two games to make the playoffs as NFC South champions. The team certainly wishes it would’ve finished the job last week, but it can put that in the past by taking care of business against a two-win Carolina team that has nothing but pride to play for.

The Bucs are also spending this week holding their collective breath a little bit, too, as quarterback Baker Mayfield took a late shot to the ribs in last Sunday’s loss. That has him feeling pretty sore and although his x-rays were negative, that injury will be something he has to overcome in order to not only suit up on Sunday, but finish the game.  Bowles said Wednesday that backup quarterback Kyle Trask will get some first-team reps and be ready to go if Mayfield just can’t do it.

There’s really been no trend for Carolina this year other than a downward spiral from the season’s kickoff. The Panthers started 0-6, then fired head coach Frank Reich after sinking to 1-10. Reich only got 11 games as the team’s head coach, and nothing much has changed since he was let go. The Panthers did sneak a 9-7 win over the Falcons a few weeks ago, but they’re 2-14 and coming off a 26-0 loss at Jacksonville that ended with their owner, David Tepper, throwing a drink on fans from his suite.

The Panthers are a long way away from competing, as their roster is in absolute shambles. They drafted Bryce Young after trading up to the No. 1 overall pick in 2023, and Young’s first season hasn’t been the prettiest. He has next to nothing to work with in terms of weapons, to be fair, but he’s completed 59.7% of his passes for 2,783 yards and 11 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in 15 games.

Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

With its loss to Jacksonville on New Year’s Eve, Carolina locked up the worst record in the league for 2023. The problem is, the Panthers don’t even get to reap the benefits of that, as they traded their 2024 first-round pick to the Bears — along with their 2023 first- and second-round picks, a 2025 second-rounder and DJ Moore — for the 2023 No. 1 overall pick. It’ll be another offseason of transition for them with another new coach coming in, and Sunday’s game is the last chance for some players to make their case to stick around for the future.

Here’s how the Bucs and Panthers stack up heading into Week 18:

Bucs Offense: 19th in scoring offense (21.2 PPG), 23rd in total offense (318.3 yards per game), 15th in passing offense (231.1 yards per game), 31st in rushing offense (87.3 yards per game)

Panthers Offense: 31st in scoring offense (14.8 PPG), 32nd in total offense (334.8 yards per game), 31st in passing offense (167.1 yards per game), 20th in rushing offense (102.4 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: T-9th in scoring defense (20.3 points allowed per game), 25th in total defense (353.3 yards allowed per game), 32nd in passing defense (260.3 yards allowed per game), 6th in rushing defense (93.1 yards allowed per game)

Panthers Defense: 30th in scoring defense (25.4 points allowed per game), 3rd in total defense (298.1 yards allowed per game), 3rd in passing defense (175.1 yards allowed per game), 23rd in rushing defense (123.0 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday night, the Bucs were four-point road favorites, with the Over/Under set at 37.5 points (per mybookie.ag).

What Might Decide This Bucs-Panthers Matchup?

Bucs OC Dave Canales and QBs Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The first big key to this game is who is under center for the Bucs — and how effective they are. If it’s Baker Mayfield, he will be navigating the pain of his rib injury while also trying to bounce back from what was a poor performance for three quarters of last week’s loss to the Saints. He has thrown for 3,907 yards and 28 touchdowns to 10 interceptions this year, establishing a pretty good Comeback Player of the Year case. His toughness is unquestioned and if there’s a way for him to play Sunday, he will. But how his ribs impact his range of motion, accuracy and ability to withstand pressure is going to be something to watch.

Of course, if it’s Kyle Trask playing in place of Mayfield — from the start of the game or at some point throughout the day — how he fares will decide the Bucs’ chances of winning the game and the division along with it. Trask has just 10 regular season pass attempts in his career, having completed three of them for 23 yards. He’s 0-of-1 this season and was 3-of-9 for those 23 yards in relief of Tom Brady and Blaine Gabbert in Week 18 of the 2022 season.

Dave Canales will have to call a better game this week regardless of who is taking snaps. Too many drives in the loss to the Saints were doomed by Canales’ insistence on running the ball no matter how ineffective the rushing attack was. It would certainly be nice for Rachaad White and the Bucs offensive line to team up for a good rushing day against the Carolina, but Tampa Bay would be better off letting that be the complement to the passing game. Whether it’s Mayfield or Trask, Canales needs to trust them to get the ball to the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer (who is coming off a career day) and White.

Carolina has a good pass defense and a middling run defense, so perhaps it will be a day where the run game is carrying the weight for Tampa Bay. Canales would be wise to be open to the types of adjustments he made in wins over the Falcons and Packers last month, where he pivoted to whatever the game and opposing defense dictated. It worked then, and it’s bound to work again in Week 18 if his players execute.

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

As far as the Bucs defense is concerned, the big threat is the Panthers’ run game. It’s not that Carolina runs the ball exceptionally well, but Chuba Hubbard and the rushing attack have been far more effective than Bryce Young and the passing game.

Tampa Bay allowed Hubbard to run wild in Week 13, though that was without Lavonte David, Devin White, SirVocea Dennis and even K.J. Britt. The first three were all out that week, while Britt left seven plays in. J.J. Russell, the team’s fifth linebacker, and safety Ryan Neal were the linebackers that day and while they did an admirable job, having the regulars — especially David — back in there should help.

Carolina will need more from Young in the final game of his rookie season. A good performance could do a lot for his confidence entering the offseason, and it could give the team and organization something to hang onto as they continue their rebuild. The former Heisman Trophy winner was just 15-of-31 for 178 yards and an interception the last time these two teams met. The Panthers aren’t likely to beat the Bucs just by running the ball. Young will have to beat them with his arm, something he hasn’t shown he can do with a less-than-stellar cast surrounding him.

The Bucs racked up four sacks against Young back in December, and pressuring him and knocking him around will go a long way on Sunday. Getting Shaq Barrett back from injury would help, while Yaya Diaby will want to reintroduce himself to the Carolina quarterback again on Sunday. Getting consistent pressure — ideally with four, but also with blitzes — can help Tampa Bay force mistakes and create turnovers, which could help the team build a lead early and ride it the rest of the way.

Key Players to Watch

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Rachaad White has cooled off considerably over the last two weeks, and he’s now in danger of missing out on his first 1,000-yard rushing season because of it. He has 915 yards on the ground, so he’ll need 85 on Sunday to break that mark. It would be a big feat to go along with his 60 catches for 531 yards and nine total touchdowns, and it would be a big help for the Tampa Bay offense as it goes through a game with either a banged-up quarterback or a backup.

Fresh off an egregious Pro Bowl snub, Antoine Winfield Jr. will be looking to bounce back from a difficult game against the Saints in Week 17. It was probably Winfield’s worst game in what has otherwise been a Pro Bowl and All-Pro type of season. But the fourth-year safety gets the benefit of coming right back to face a team he had one of his best games of the year against. In Week 13, Winfield tallied eight tackles (six solo), a sack, two tackles for loss, three passes defensed and an interception. Those kinds of games have become standard for him, so look for another big splash play from No. 31 this week.

Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs and Panthers OLB Brian Burns – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Chuba Hubbard ran for 104 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries the last time these two teams squared off, but how effective he is against the Bucs’ starting linebackers this time around could be a big factor in this game. Because if he can’t find room to run against the Tampa Bay defense, Todd Bowles’ unit will be able to fire off the ball and harass Bryce Young all day long. Hubbard has run for 819 yards and five touchdowns this season in addition to catching 37 of his 42 targets for 224 yards.

Brian Burns is the biggest threat on the Carolina defense, leading the way with seven sacks and 14 tackles for loss this year. He was a non-factor back in Week 13, notching just one tackle before being ejected for throwing a punch in the third quarter. He’ll surely have a little extra juice on Sunday and will be looking to make life difficult for whoever is behind center for Tampa Bay.

Bucs at Panthers Game Information

When: Sunday, January 7
Where: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX – Kenny Albert (Play by Play), Jonathan Vilma (Analyst), Shannon Spake (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martin Gramática (Color)