There is no shortage of blame to go around for the Bucs embarrassing 25-11 loss in week three on Monday Night Football. The defense was listless as they allowed the Eagles run game to gouge them to the tune of 201 yards. The Baker Mayfield to Mike Evans connection apparently was disconnected until late in the third quarter. Coverage units were underwhelming. The back end of the defense was porous and exhibited poor tackling. The list of faults on the player side is long and varied.

But make no mistake the coaching put the team in the position to lose as well. Specifically, offensive coordinator Dave Canales did not have the right script for this game. And he did not adjust well as his script did not go to plan.

Canales is a rookie play-caller, so growing pains are to be expected. He will need to take a long, hard look at Monday night’s performance and start to make some tough decisions on what his offense will look like going forward. Because Monday night’s game was not it.

“We didn’t execute well,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said regarding the offense. “We can call it better and we can play it better – from offense, defense and special teams. I can call it better, [Canales] can call it better. He’s learning some things a long the way that is going to benefit us as the year goes on. We’re still learning ourselves as an offense. We came up against a good defense that played very well. We can adjust some things and we will.”

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

Outside of the two-minute drill in each half the Bucs ran 19 first-down plays. Somehow, despite trailing throughout the entire game Canales was still able to maintain balance in his play-calling on first down, running 10 pass plays and nine run plays. But balance for balance’s sake is no positive feat in and of itself.

Believe it or not, Canales and the Bucs were able to create some positives when passing on first down. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was 7-of-10 for 94 yards while averaging 9.4 yards per play when passing on first down outside of the two-minute drills. The Bucs picked up first downs on 40% of those plays and were successful (i.e. picked up at least half the yardage needed for a new first down or a touchdown) a whopping 70% of the time.

Now, contrasting that success with the run game and we find the differences are stark. Of the 10 first down run calls Canales made on the night the Bucs generated just 21 yards of offense. That’s 2.1 yards per play, with just one play picking up at least half the yardage needed for a first down – a 12-yard run by Rachaad White late in the game when the outcome was already a foregone conclusion.

Dave Canales’ Second-Half Adjustments Head-Scratching

What makes matters worse is the Byron Leftwich-like refusal to adapt/change direction. Dave Canales maintained a balanced first-down approach throughout the entire game, including after the Bucs came out at halftime down 13-3 and with the pass/run success significantly imbalanced towards the pass. Looking at just the first half the Bucs were 4-of-6 for 43 yards when passing on first down outside the two-minute warning, averaging 7.2 yards per play. When running in those same situations the Bucs offense created just four yards on five running plays.

Despite this disparity in success Canales still decided to call first down runs on his next three opportunities coming out of the half. The results are what you would expect: five yards gained total and second downs with seven, seven and nine yards needed to convert first downs.

Bucs’ Run Game Cannot Be Basis For Early-Down Success

Through three games the Bucs offense is now averaging 17 points per game (remember seven of their 58 total points came from a Shaq Barrett pick-six). That’s worse than the 2022 version of the offense.

Please don’t get me wrong. This isn’t a “Dave Canales is worse than Byron Leftwich” call.

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

But the best minds learn from the past and adapt as they move forward. Canales must do that.

His run game is not where it needs to be in order to be a base tenant of success. And it’s not for a lack of trying.

Arjun Menon’s “The Scout” had the Bucs running on over 60% of their first downs in neutral situations coming into the Monday Night tilt with the Eagles. Unless you are the Eagles (or the 49ers) that’s just not a sustainable model for success in today’s NFL.

Canales has previously mentioned that he considers a successful run one that gains four or more yards. I contend that line of thinking lacks context.

But by any measure the Bucs’ run game was not successful on Monday. Just four of their 16 designed runs reached Canales’ goal. But when you add context into your thinking of how you implement a struggling run game you can manufacture one that is more successful. A three-yard run is not successful on first-and-10. But on second-and-two that same three-yard run has given you a new set of downs.

Dave Canales needs to adapt this approach and quickly, because the Saints are up next and in order to keep pace in the NFC South the Bucs are going to need to score more than 17 points per game. And that’s not going to happen if they continue to strive to achieve early down run/pass balance.