With the bye week behind them, the Bucs returned to the field in Week 12 knowing any semblance of a playoff push would have to start immediately. Tampa Bay came into play on Sunday 1.5 games behind the Falcons, though it’s really a 2.5-game lead for Atlanta because it has the tiebreaker. And in the NFC Wild Card race, the Bucs found themselves 2.5 games out of the No. 7 seed as well.

So, Todd Bowles and his team knew they needed to take care of business against the 2-8 Giants at MetLife Stadium to have any hopes of turning the ship around, and they were business-like in their approach from the start on Sunday afternoon. Baker Mayfield led a 14-play, 70-yard touchdown drive that took 8:23 off the clock to open the game, then the defense got a quick stop to keep the momentum going.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and TE Cade Otton – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

From there, it really was all Tampa Bay. The Bucs took a 23-0 lead into halftime and while things slowed down in the second half, the outcome was never in doubt. They beat the Giants 30-7 to snap a four-game losing streak and get to 5-6 ahead of next Sunday’s road matchup with the Panthers in Charlotte.

With the Falcons off this week, the Bucs picked up a half-game in the NFC South race. The Saints were off this week as well, meaning Tampa Bay also gained a half-game of separation from them. The Panthers put up a valiant effort against the Chiefs before falling on a last-second field goal, meaning they fell a game further behind the back-to-back-to-back division champions.

Here’s an updated look at the NFC South standings through Week 12:

Atlanta Falcons 6-5 (4-1 in the NFC South)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-6 (1-2 in the NFC South)
New Orleans Saints 4-7 (2-3 in the NFC South)
Carolina Panthers 3-8 (1-2 in the NFC South)

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Falcons HC Raheem Morris – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

So, the Bucs are technically one-game behind the Falcons for the top spot in the division, though the Falcons own the tiebreaker. That essentially makes it a two-game lead for Atlanta with six games to play. In order for Tampa Bay to win the division the team would have to finish one game ahead of Atlanta at the end of the season.

Here’s a look at the remaining schedules for the top two contenders in the NFC South:

Week 13: Bucs – at Panthers (3-8); Falcons – vs. Chargers (6-3)*
Week 14: Bucs – vs. Raiders (2-9); Falcons – at Vikings (9-2)
Week 15: Bucs – at Chargers (6-3)*; Falcons – at Raiders (2-9)
Week 16: Bucs – at Cowboys (4-6); Falcons – vs. Giants (2-9)
Week 17: Bucs – vs. Panthers (3-8); Falcons – at Commanders (7-5)
Week 18: Bucs – vs. Saints (4-7); Falcons – vs. Panthers (3-8)

*Still to play in Week 12

The path is there for the Bucs to four-peat as NFC South champions and earn a home playoff game. But they’ll need to keep taking care of business against weaker opponents – like they did on Sunday – and hope they get some help elsewhere.

Where The Bucs Now Stand In The NFC Playoff Picture

While the Bucs may stand a better chance of catching the Falcons in the NFC South race, it’s worth monitoring where they are in the NFC Wild Card race as well.

The Vikings survived a late scare from the Bears on Sunday afternoon and won in overtime, getting to 9-2 and maintaining their hold on the No. 5 seed in the NFC. The Packers beat the 49ers in the 4:00 window, getting themselves to 8-3 and keeping their hold of the No. 6 seed.

Bucs safety Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

As discussed last week, it’s the No. 7 seed that the Bucs will be chasing if they can’t unseat the Falcons. And Week 12 proved to be helpful in Tampa Bay’s potential pursuit of that final Wild Card spot.

The Commanders nearly pulled off a miracle comeback at home against the Cowboys, but they missed the potential game-tying extra point that would have forced overtime. That meant a third consecutive loss for Washington, which dropped Jayden Daniels and Co. to 7-5 after a 7-2 start.

With that, the Bucs gained a game on the Commanders and now sit 1.5 games behind them. If it is Washington that Tampa Bay is ultimately chasing for that spot, it helps that Todd Bowles and his team hold the tiebreaker thanks to a head-to-head win in Week 1.

But it’s a distinct possibility that the Commanders’ free fall continues and it’s another team the Bucs will need to beat out for that final Wild Card spot. It could be the Cardinals, who lost to the Seahawks in Week 12 to fall out of first place in the NFC West and into the Wild Card race for the time being. They’re 6-5, so the Bucs trail them by a game.

After Arizona, it gets interesting.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: USA Today

Because of their loss to the Packers, the 49ers fell to 5-6 on the year. They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bucs due to that Week 10 win in Tampa, but that tiebreaker only comes into play if it’s a two-team tie. Results elsewhere on Sunday drastically helped Tampa Bay’s positioning, at least for now.

The Rams lost to the Eagles on Sunday Night Football, which dropped them to 5-6 as well. With the Bucs, 49ers and Rams all in a three-way tie at 5-6, the tiebreaker comes down to their conference records. Tampa Bay is 5-3 against NFC opponents, while the other two squads hold 3-5 records in NFC play. Because of that, it’s the Bucs who find themselves in ninth, which is two spots out of that No. 7 seed.

Below the 5-6 teams, there are three 4-7 teams – the Saints, Bears and Cowboys.

Here’s a look at the NFC Playoff Picture through Week 12:

1. Lions – 10-1 (NFC North leader)
2. Eagles – 9-2 (NFC East leader)
3. Seahawks – 6-5 (NFC West leader)
4. Falcons – 6-5 (NFC South leader)
5. Vikings – 9-2 (NFC Wild Card No. 1)
6. Packers – 8-3 (NFC Wild Card No. 2)
7. Commanders – 7-5 (NFC Wild Card No. 3)
——–In the Hunt——–
8. Cardinals – 6-5
9. Bucs – 5-6
10. Rams – 5-6
11. 49ers – 5-6
12. Saints – 4-7
13. Bears – 4-7
14. Cowboys – 4-7

According to NFL.com, Sunday’s win increased the Bucs’ playoff probability to 52%.

The Bucs will look to make it two wins in a row next week when they take on the 3-8 Panthers in Charlotte. The key to getting back in this playoff race, first and foremost, is to win. If they can do that over the next few weeks, they’ll set themselves up well ahead of the final few weeks of the season.