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About the Author: Joshua Queipo
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It’s admirable what Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen and quarterback Baker Mayfield have been able to accomplish this year without the pillars of offense they had originally counted on at the outset of the season. Make no mistake, general manager Jason Licht had built this offense to rely on a strong offensive line and two top-tier wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. When both Evans and Godwin went down in a week eight loss to the Ravens and it became evident the offense would be without both for at least a month, and in the case of Godwin the entire year, questions abounded as to how effective the team would be at generating points.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today
But the Bucs offense kept moving forward. The run game improved and Mayfield found a WR1 in his tight end Cade Otton. The team was able to more than tread water during Evans’ month-long absence as he nursed a hamstring injury.
Since his return, Evans has once again returned to from as an elite receiver. Over the past three games he has 17 catches, 255 yards and a touchdown. His efficiency has been especially impressive, averaging 3.00 yards per route run. But questions still remain surrounding the Bucs passing attack.
Otton went from a high-target engine for Tampa Bay’s aerial attack to more of an afterthought. And no other receiver has had an “eye-popping” game. But that doesn’t mean the receiving corps hasn’t found its groove. And it doesn’t mean this group isn’t good enough to be good enough.
Consider this. Since Evans’ return to the lineup in week 12 the Bucs’ top four non-running back receivers have generated 591 receiving yards on a total of 333 routes for an average of 1.77 yards/route run. This includes receivers Sterling Shepard and Jalen McMillan as well as Otton.
Let’s compare that yds/rr mark to five of the top passing attacks in the NFL this season.
The Bucs are just about smack dab in the middle. Now, granted Evans is doing the heavy lifting. But not to an outlier-like rate. His receiving yards output over this, admittedly small, three-game sample is 43% of that group’s total. That is a higher rate than that of the top receiver in Seattle (36%), Atlanta (31%) or Detroit (36%), but it is also smaller than the reliance Cincinnati (49%) and Minnesota (48%) have placed on their top receivers. And to be clear, all of this excludes the impact of running backs on these team’s passing attacks.
And there the Bucs truly shine.
Bucs Receivers Bring More Than Meets The Eye
Over this time period Sterling Shepard has emerged as a very capable WR2, averaging 1.68 yards per route run while displaying explosiveness in and out of his cuts, an aggressive mindset at the catch point. He also has done a solid job of taking over the WR screen role in Liam Coen’s offense. Despite his smaller frame, he has caught seven of his nine contested catch opportunities while averaging 6.7 targets per game.
Bucs WR Sterling Shepard – Photo by: USA Today
Jalen McMillan has been the breakout performer. After making a clutch catch in overtime against the Panthers in Week 13, McMillan matched his career-highs with seven targets and four catches against the Raiders last week. He also set a new career-high with two touchdowns.
That game helped bring his post bye-week yards per route run total to 1.12 with an arrow firmly pointed up on his go-forward outlook. McMillan is becoming more comfortable in the offense, and it has shown recently in his route running. His pacing looks much improved while he appears more confident in his cuts.
There is an improved rapport between him and Baker Mayfield, and you can see trust building from the quarterback. He will still need to work on his ability to catch through contact because at the NFL level it is near impossible to win consistently with separation and I don’t see him with the ceiling required to do so. But it looks like the Bucs can start to rely on him as a solid WR3 down the stretch here.
Cade Otton is the wild card. It might surprise some to find out that his 1.32 yds/rr mark over the past three weeks matches his season-long total and is over 30% better than either of his first two seasons in the league. But when you consider that three-game pace over an entire season would put him at a career-high 640 yards it starts to round into form.
Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today
The Bucs have also been using Otton in a slightly different way recently. His average depth of target for the season is a career-low 5.7. But in two of the past three weeks that number has cleared nine, and last week it spiked to 12.3. He may not be seeing the same number of targets, but his 15.0 yards per catch shows when he’s getting the ball he’s making it count.
Otton will absolutely have to improve his reliability to get back to being a more voluminous part of the offense. Pro Football Focus has credited him with seven drops on the season. That’s tied for the fourth-highest mark in the NFL. And PFF are notoriously generous graders in this particular category. Realistically, his drop total should be around 10-12. His 10.9% drop rate is 7th in the league among qualified players.
Liam Coen spoke about it last week when Pewter Report’s Adam Slivon asked him about getting Otton more involved in the offense.
“Yeah, I think he’s got to catch the ball a little bit more consistently, as well,” Coen said. “I think he knows that. We’ve got to continue to get him in some favorable matchups and give him some more opportunities, but when the ball comes his way, he’s got to make sure he’s ready to make those plays.”
A Sum That Is Greater Than The Parts
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
They aren’t the name-brand threats of years gone by. Beyond Mike Evans there is no Chris Godwin. There is no Rob Gronkowski. There is no Antonio Brown. But this isn’t the 2020 Bucs that had to rely on elite talent at the pass catcher position to win on offense.
The run game takes a huge load off of this group’s shoulders. The backs as pass catchers takes another load off. And for the weight they have to bear, Cade Otton, Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard are plenty good enough to shoulder what they need to. We have openly asked, “Who will step up?” in the past.
But here’s the thing.
They already have to the degree they have needed to. And there is still room for this group to grow. And that’s exciting.
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