A new Pewter Report Roundtable debuts every Tuesday during the Bucs’ regular season. Each week, the Pewter Reporters tackle another tough question. This week’s prompt: Bucs’ Revised Record Prediction

Scott Reynolds: Bucs Might Make Me Look Stupid, But I’m Sticking With My 9-8 Prediction

In my original preseason predictions in my SR’s Fab 5 column, I had the Bucs at 4-3 at this juncture. The difference was I had the Bucs losing to the Saints on the road in Week 4 and beating both the Lions and Falcons at home in the two weeks after the bye week. I accurately predicted wins against the Vikings and Bears and losses to the Eagles and Bills. And Tampa Bay should have beaten Atlanta at home. That loss might come back to haunt this team. So do I think the Bucs will still reach nine wins to get to 9-8 like my original prediction? Well, they should.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay has six games against teams with losing records (Carolina twice, Indianapolis, Houston, Tennessee and Green Bay), two versus teams with winning records (San Francisco and Jacksonville) and a pair of games against .500 teams (Atlanta and New Orleans) There are plenty of winnable games for the Bucs down the stretch, but Tampa Bay must end its three-game losing skid this week at Houston first. The Bucs will face rookie quarterbacks in back-to-back weeks with the Texans’ C.J. Stroud, who has thrown nine touchdowns and one interception during his team’s 3-4 start, and the Titans’ Will Levis, who threw four TDs in his NFL debut, which was win over the Falcons.

Winning these two games and getting back above .500 will be crucial because a loss at San Francisco likely awaits – despite the 49ers’ recent three-game skid after a 5-0 start. Then it’s seven games to decide the season, including four divisional games – two against the Panthers and one each against the Falcons and the Saints. Winning at Atlanta will be paramount if Tampa Bay wants to three-peat as NFC South champions. If the Bucs get swept by the Falcons they’ll likely have to hope they can get in as a Wild Card.

To get to 9-8 on the season the Bucs must go 6-4 down the stretch. That means having a winning record over the last 10 games of the season. Hey, if this team wants to finish as a winner this year, that’s what it’s all about – winning. Simply put, Tampa Bay needs to win more of its remaining games than it loses in November, December and into January. The Bucs’ ceiling is likely 10 victories this season, while its floor is probably six wins if the bottom falls out. A 9-8 record is certainly doable and seems likely – as long the offense picks it up and starts scoring more touchdowns.

Matt Matera: Believe It Or Not, I’m Improving My Bucs’ Prediction From 8-9 To 9-8

This may sound crazy since the Bucs have not win their last three games, but I still think they’re on pace to have a winning season. Before the year began I had the Bucs going 8-9, but based on their schedule the rest of the way, I’m improving that to 9-8 to finish out. How is that possible? I’m looking at it from a glass half-full perspective.

I don’t think the Bucs offense can really get much worse than it has been since coming out of the bye week where Tampa Bay has averaged 12 points per game. You’ve heard everyone from offensive coordinator Dave Canales to quarterback Baker Mayfield that the offense is “almost there” and to a degree, that’s true. Mayfield has missed some throws, but players have been open. The run game has been terrible this season but maybe the insertion of Aaron Stinnie at left guard can help improve. If anything, the Bucs have learned that they can utilize Rachaad White as a receiver and gain yards that way.

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The offense has largely been centered around Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, yet we haven’t seen the best of them. Let’s remember it’s a new offensive system that is taking time for the unit to grow. Each week is a new opportunity to get everyone on the same level. The Bucs have young pieces in Deven Thompkins and Trey Palmer that have had their moments, but have not produced consistently. I’d like to think moving forward that they can provide more to the offense and give another option in the passing game.

And the reason I’m talking so much about Tampa Bay’s offense is because I believe the defense will absolutely fine. One slip up against the Bills doesn’t erase that the the Bucs’ defense is creating many turnovers and limiting opponents to under 20 points on a regular basis.

What’s the biggest concern on defense for the Bucs? It’s Ryan Neal at safety and not as much sack production from the outside linebackers that everyone would like. Those are quickly fixed by starting Dee Delaney over Neal, and potentially giving more snaps to Anthony Nelson and YaYa Diaby over Joe Tryon-Shoyinka until JTS picks it up.

Then you have to look at the Bucs’ schedule the rest of the way. I’m calling it now that they’ll win their next two games against the Texans and Titans, who will both be playing rookie quarterbacks. Chalk up a loss to the 49ers and the Bucs are looking at 5-5 with seven more games to go.

Of those seven remaining, the Bucs play the Colts, Packers, Jaguars and the rest of their NFC division opponents, including the 1-6 Panthers twice. The Jaguars are the one team where the Bucs are a legitimate underdog. It would be very shocking if the Bucs couldn’t at least go 4-3 on that stretch to set themselves up at 9-8. They don’t even have to win out in all of these “coin flip games” just stay the course as the team improves each week.

Bailey Adams: I’m Somehow Sticking With My Initial 9-8 Prediction?

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo By: Cliff Welch P/R

The fact that the Bucs have lost three straight games and four of their last five should probably knock me off of the nine wins I predicted for this team before the season began. But somehow, it hasn’t? I’m just as surprised as you might be, but as I look at the rest of the schedule, I see quite a few wins for Tampa Bay.

Before we get to the schedule ahead, actually, it’s important to note that me sticking with my 9-8 prediction is banking on some assumptions. I’m assuming that, at some point, the Buccaneer offense will get itself together and start sustaining drives and scoring some points. Even getting back to how it was performing early on in the season and then making a slight jump from there should do.

The defense, on the other hand, needs to get more from its pass rush and figure out how to get off the field on third downs. There are very real problems with this team, and that’s why I expected to separate myself from projecting nine wins.

But this Bucs team still has the talent to win the NFC South. The pass protection from the offensive line has been a revelation, while Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain one of the better receiving duos out there. There’s talent all over the defense, led by Vita Vea, Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr., and while the unit’s third-down success (or lack thereof) has been a concern, opponents are only scoring 18.3 points per game.

All of that brings us to the schedule. Road games against the Texans (3-4), Colts (3-5), Falcons (4-4), Panthers (1-6) and Packers (2-5) are winnable. Home games against the Titans (3-4), Panthers (1-6) and Saints (4-4) are also winnable. The only ones I see as sure losses right now are the road game against the 49ers (5-3) and the home contest against the Jaguars (6-2). The Bucs could even steal one of those. What it comes down to is this: the team has to go 6-4 down the stretch to reach nine wins. I think there are just enough winnable games there for that to be doable.

(I’ll probably regret this.)

Josh Queipo: Three Straight Losses Have Me … More Optimistic For An 8-9 Finish

The foundation is in place for the Bucs to have an average offense. And they have the talent on defense to be above average. Neither unit is or is likely to become elite. Both are being held back by maddening coaching decisions.

But the Bucs offensive line is one of the best pass protection units in the league. And the Atlanta and Buffalo games showed signs of life in run blocking. The running backs are no better than average in terms of vision so it will limit their upside, but Rachaad White is an above average running back when you factor in his abilities in the passing game. Add in playmakers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and the continued development of Trey Palmer and you have the makings of solid offense … if offensive coordinator Dave Canales is willing to lean into it.

Team 6: you guessed it. The Bucs. 27th in run success rate and 27th in pass rate. TB is 24th in 1d pass success rate, but there’s a 16% differential between the two!

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 30, 2023

On defense the team has the talent to stifle the bad teams and struggle (mostly schematically) against the good offenses. But here’s the thing. They face all of one offense that is Top 12 in EPA/play for the rest of the year.

That’s a recipe for wins … maybe not a great team … but a team that can pull out wins. I originally had this team at 6-11. And I am now cautiously optimistic they will finish 8-9. And in the weak NFC that just may be a playoff team this year.

Adam Slivon: An Easier Road Ahead Keeps Me Optimistic, Bucs Finish 9-8

Back when we first offered our season predictions in early September, I had the Bucs hovering around the point where they currently find themselves after seven games. Initially, I had them starting at 2-2 losing to the Eagles and Saints in back-to-back weeks. They actually did one better, sitting at 3-1 after four games and looking like the team to beat in the NFC South. That optimism has dwindled after three straight losses, but not all is lost.

Bucs ILB Lavonte David and OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: USA Today

No, the Bucs did not have any creamsicle magic against the Lions, but three of their four losses have come against the Eagles, Lions, and Bills. Is losing to three likely playoff teams really that unexpected? Looking back at my prediction, I had Tampa Bay falling to 4-6 before reeling off three straight wins against the Colts, Panthers, and Falcons.

With how each of those teams is trending, I remain highly confident with that prediction.  Indianapolis lost Anthony Richardson for the season and has given up at least 37 points in their past three games. Is a Bucs’ midseason offensive breakout looming then?

Carolina has struggled mightily and sits in the NFC South cellar at 1-6. Atlanta recently benched Desmond Ridder and the wheels on their wagon are starting to fall off despite the Falcons sitting at 4-4.

The Bucs have shown an innate ability to stay in just about every game thanks to their defense bending but not breaking. Both sides of the ball do have to get better, but there is plenty of time – and easier opponents – to find their groove. There are some hurdles Tampa Bay has to jump through starting this Sunday against the Texans, but the only real losses one can chalk up at this moment are to the 49ers and Jaguars.

They will not go 11-6, but their remaining schedule appears very winnable on the surface. If the Bucs can win the games they are supposed to in a lackluster division and against some young, unproven quarterbacks, it is not that difficult seeing them going 6-4 the rest of the way and finishing above .500.